The willingness to look crazy for a long time is definitely a non-obvious common trait of the most successful people.
Most people aren’t willing to look crazy for a minute—let alone for years.
I imagine it’s uncomfortable as hell.
But that’s where you find the greatest rewards.
I imagine it’s uncomfortable as hell.
But that’s where you find the greatest rewards.
There’s also tons of survivorship bias.
Sometimes (most of the time?) people think you’re crazy…and they end up being right.
But we mostly just hear the stories of the cases where someone was crazy…until they were right.
Sometimes (most of the time?) people think you’re crazy…and they end up being right.
But we mostly just hear the stories of the cases where someone was crazy…until they were right.
Seems like the real skill is in finding the hidden EV positive bets.
It’s crazy and low likelihood, but still worth trying because of the value created if you succeed.
Reminds me of @elonmusk reply to Charlie Munger giving him the reasons Tesla would fail.
It’s crazy and low likelihood, but still worth trying because of the value created if you succeed.
Reminds me of @elonmusk reply to Charlie Munger giving him the reasons Tesla would fail.
One of my favorites is how @paulg thinks about crazy ideas:
If someone proposes a crazy idea, ask:
(1) Are they a domain expert?
(2) Do I know them to be reasonable?
If yes on (1) and (2), you should take the idea seriously, as it may be an asymmetric bet on the future.
If someone proposes a crazy idea, ask:
(1) Are they a domain expert?
(2) Do I know them to be reasonable?
If yes on (1) and (2), you should take the idea seriously, as it may be an asymmetric bet on the future.
Loading suggestions...