Nearly all major longer-term tools a lot of people use such as market structure, moving averages, supertrend, RSI, MACD, MVRV, Puell, % drop, and so on are pointing out to a trend reversal
That by itself wouldn't matter that much, it's the CONFLUENCE that matters here
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That by itself wouldn't matter that much, it's the CONFLUENCE that matters here
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So first of all it's important to realize the time spent during each bear market + the percentage drop!
Diminishing returns each bull = diminishing drop each bear
With higher market capitalization the volatility will also diminish.
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Diminishing returns each bull = diminishing drop each bear
With higher market capitalization the volatility will also diminish.
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Many are saying we need to hit more than -80% before a new cycle can begin & that is simply not the case
More than a % drop is important the time spent in the bear & this has matched the past cycles which is between 12-14 months (If we count April 21 as top, thats even more)
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More than a % drop is important the time spent in the bear & this has matched the past cycles which is between 12-14 months (If we count April 21 as top, thats even more)
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This was important to be said because more than what happens is where & when it happens
And it did happen during one of the most depressing periods of the past decades.
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And it did happen during one of the most depressing periods of the past decades.
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Technicals:
Let's have a 1st look at the Supertrend + 200 Daily moving average
A super powerful combination to predict long-term trends
Simple rule, when price is above these two = bullish / when below = bearish
The price has flipped that for the 1st time since the ATH
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Let's have a 1st look at the Supertrend + 200 Daily moving average
A super powerful combination to predict long-term trends
Simple rule, when price is above these two = bullish / when below = bearish
The price has flipped that for the 1st time since the ATH
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The same thing happened in 2019 when the bear market ended (many didn't know yet back then) and then the price followed with another 150% rally even from those prices.
Not saying the same thing happens now but we are at that place + the market confirmed THE bottom back then
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Not saying the same thing happens now but we are at that place + the market confirmed THE bottom back then
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For me personally the most important is market structure.
After retesting the previous cycle ATH for the first time ever & deviating below with #FTX panic capitulation we have now managed to reclaim it with HH on the Weekly TF for the first time since ATH
THAT MATTERS!
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After retesting the previous cycle ATH for the first time ever & deviating below with #FTX panic capitulation we have now managed to reclaim it with HH on the Weekly TF for the first time since ATH
THAT MATTERS!
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Back in January 2022 when we got the first MS break below 40K, I became heavily bearish. We got the same just vice versa now.
These signals are not to be underestimated especially on Weekly TF - AND - after -75% drop.
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These signals are not to be underestimated especially on Weekly TF - AND - after -75% drop.
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When we look at the mining long-term data all have been signalizing long term bottom levels that has so far in the past cycles just as well
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RSI not just the most oversold ever but also the first-ever Weekly bullish divergence in the oversold territory
And look at the reaction we got already! 🔥
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And look at the reaction we got already! 🔥
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To top that even more, we have seen the largest Weekly volume ever on the panic #FTX capitulation.
And I know that many naysayers will say that wasn't the capitulation but please just open your damn eyes
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And I know that many naysayers will say that wasn't the capitulation but please just open your damn eyes
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Many will try to negate big volume to #Binance zero fees campaign & while that is true, there are many important buts
1) Zero fees only for retail not top tier clients that make the most volume
2) Been running since Summer 22
3) Binance is still more than 2/3 of the market
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1) Zero fees only for retail not top tier clients that make the most volume
2) Been running since Summer 22
3) Binance is still more than 2/3 of the market
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Now even if all of that has not convinced you the bottom is in, that is still alrighty, cause even if it is not, there are still huge probabilities for at the very least multi-month trend reversal.
And u should ask yourself, whether you wanna miss on that one?
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And u should ask yourself, whether you wanna miss on that one?
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And u also need to ask yourself a question, what if it truly was the bottom and I miss out completely just because I was waiting for a few $ dollars lower?
All while the majority engagement is still received for bearish posts calling for 14K?
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All while the majority engagement is still received for bearish posts calling for 14K?
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Now I wouldn't imagine a straight-up candle to the moon. We could actually spend more time in the 25-20K range. We could also go quickly.
This post is mainly to inform you about the HTF reversal trend change
I'd imagine more something like this 👇
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This post is mainly to inform you about the HTF reversal trend change
I'd imagine more something like this 👇
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Also what is currently helping out the narrative is the IM correlation I discovered last year in July. So far it has been absolutely spot-on in all aspects!
Based on it, #BTC should be trading somewhere around 40K this year. Be sure to check it out
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Based on it, #BTC should be trading somewhere around 40K this year. Be sure to check it out
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To further support the narrative of risk-on-assets upside, we look at the bearish outcome for the dollar $DXY
This would be on a thread on its own but for now, will share the chart below that predicted the top 😉
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This would be on a thread on its own but for now, will share the chart below that predicted the top 😉
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As always, if you guys liked this thread and found it helpful, please consider sharing it with others as:
1) U help the others around u
2) Those may help u back in the future
3) U help me produce more of these in the future, which helps u again in future
Thank you 🙌
1) U help the others around u
2) Those may help u back in the future
3) U help me produce more of these in the future, which helps u again in future
Thank you 🙌
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