Bilahari Kausikan is one of the world's most respected diplomats
-Singapore's fmr Foreign Secy & Amb. to UN
-Author of 3 books
At @MEAIndia's Vajpayee Memorial Lecture, Kausikan spoke abt why ๐ฎ๐ณ will succeed in new world order
๐งตon 10 insights he has for the world (1/24) ๐
-Singapore's fmr Foreign Secy & Amb. to UN
-Author of 3 books
At @MEAIndia's Vajpayee Memorial Lecture, Kausikan spoke abt why ๐ฎ๐ณ will succeed in new world order
๐งตon 10 insights he has for the world (1/24) ๐
2/24
Insight #1: Don't Panic. We've seen this movie before
The war in ๐บ๐ฆ & ๐tension b/w ๐บ๐ธ&๐จ๐ณ have spooked the world after relative peace in the world since the 1990s
Kausikan advises folks not to panic because this is a return to normalcy. Competition b/w states is natural
Insight #1: Don't Panic. We've seen this movie before
The war in ๐บ๐ฆ & ๐tension b/w ๐บ๐ธ&๐จ๐ณ have spooked the world after relative peace in the world since the 1990s
Kausikan advises folks not to panic because this is a return to normalcy. Competition b/w states is natural
3/24
History shows that competition b/w pwrs is the rule & long periods of peace exception
๐บ๐ธ's pwr & ๐จ๐ณ๐ท๐บ relative weakness led to 30yr peace. Now that balance of pwr is restored, competition is back
We have managed tensions b4 (eg: ๐บ๐ธ๐ท๐บ in Cold War)
Bottom Line: Don't Panic
History shows that competition b/w pwrs is the rule & long periods of peace exception
๐บ๐ธ's pwr & ๐จ๐ณ๐ท๐บ relative weakness led to 30yr peace. Now that balance of pwr is restored, competition is back
We have managed tensions b4 (eg: ๐บ๐ธ๐ท๐บ in Cold War)
Bottom Line: Don't Panic
4/24
Kausikan: "Looking around the world today, I conclude that we have seen this movie before. The cast of characters and locations may have changed. But whether we look at the war in๐บ๐ฆ or ๐บ๐ธ๐จ๐ณ strategic rivalry, these are not new plots. They are new variants of old plots"
Kausikan: "Looking around the world today, I conclude that we have seen this movie before. The cast of characters and locations may have changed. But whether we look at the war in๐บ๐ฆ or ๐บ๐ธ๐จ๐ณ strategic rivalry, these are not new plots. They are new variants of old plots"
5/24
Insight #2: This is not a new Cold War
Kausikan dismissed talk of a new Cold War
During Cold War, ๐บ๐ธ & USSR led two separate ideological & econ. systems connected very minimally
Goal of each system was to replace the other
Choices facing ctries. like ๐ฎ๐ณ were binary
Insight #2: This is not a new Cold War
Kausikan dismissed talk of a new Cold War
During Cold War, ๐บ๐ธ & USSR led two separate ideological & econ. systems connected very minimally
Goal of each system was to replace the other
Choices facing ctries. like ๐ฎ๐ณ were binary
6/24
๐บ๐ธ๐จ๐ณ competition is nothing like Cold War
Why? Because both pwrs are interdependent
Unlike Cold War, which was a clash of two different systems, ๐บ๐ธ๐จ๐ณ rivalry is competition within one system
๐จ๐ณ not interested in replacing ๐บ๐ธ system since it has benefited so much from it
๐บ๐ธ๐จ๐ณ competition is nothing like Cold War
Why? Because both pwrs are interdependent
Unlike Cold War, which was a clash of two different systems, ๐บ๐ธ๐จ๐ณ rivalry is competition within one system
๐จ๐ณ not interested in replacing ๐บ๐ธ system since it has benefited so much from it
7/24
Kausikan also says West needs๐จ๐ณ
"Whatever their concerns about ๐จ๐ณ behaviour, even the closest ๐บ๐ธ ally is not going to cut itself off from ๐จ๐ณ"
But ๐จ๐ณ also needs West
"China has no alternative to the global West for critical enabling technologies"
Kausikan also says West needs๐จ๐ณ
"Whatever their concerns about ๐จ๐ณ behaviour, even the closest ๐บ๐ธ ally is not going to cut itself off from ๐จ๐ณ"
But ๐จ๐ณ also needs West
"China has no alternative to the global West for critical enabling technologies"
8/24
Insight #3: ๐จ๐ณ not an existential threat
Unlike USSR,๐จ๐ณ wants to keep ๐บ๐ธ order as its economy is dependent on it
๐จ๐ณ may want to take ๐บ๐ธ's place at centre but can't do it w/o risking undermining global order
While ๐จ๐ณ is a competitor, its rise isn't an existential crisis
Insight #3: ๐จ๐ณ not an existential threat
Unlike USSR,๐จ๐ณ wants to keep ๐บ๐ธ order as its economy is dependent on it
๐จ๐ณ may want to take ๐บ๐ธ's place at centre but can't do it w/o risking undermining global order
While ๐จ๐ณ is a competitor, its rise isn't an existential crisis
9/24
Insight #4: ๐จ๐ณ๐ท๐บ "no limits" partnership is very limited
Both ๐จ๐ณ&๐ท๐บ are unhappy w. their alliance
๐ท๐บ war in UKR puts๐จ๐ณ in awkward position w. Europe while๐จ๐ณ has major domestic troubles
But ๐จ๐ณ cannot break up w. ๐ท๐บ b'cuz it has no other major partner that also dislikes ๐บ๐ธ
Insight #4: ๐จ๐ณ๐ท๐บ "no limits" partnership is very limited
Both ๐จ๐ณ&๐ท๐บ are unhappy w. their alliance
๐ท๐บ war in UKR puts๐จ๐ณ in awkward position w. Europe while๐จ๐ณ has major domestic troubles
But ๐จ๐ณ cannot break up w. ๐ท๐บ b'cuz it has no other major partner that also dislikes ๐บ๐ธ
10/24
At the same time, ๐ท๐บ not happy with ๐จ๐ณ's tepid support over ๐บ๐ฆ war
Kausikan: "But ๐ท๐บ too, has no other partner other than ๐จ๐ณ of any strategic weight, anywhere prepared to stand on its side against the West"
So the threat posed by ๐จ๐ณ to the world is not existential
At the same time, ๐ท๐บ not happy with ๐จ๐ณ's tepid support over ๐บ๐ฆ war
Kausikan: "But ๐ท๐บ too, has no other partner other than ๐จ๐ณ of any strategic weight, anywhere prepared to stand on its side against the West"
So the threat posed by ๐จ๐ณ to the world is not existential
11/24
Insight #5: Keep an eye on ๐จ๐ณ
No need to be naรฏve though: ๐จ๐ณ still a threat
Xi Jinping & CCP rely on narrative of historic humiliation to justify their power
This narrative "instills ๐จ๐ณ policy with a strong sense of entitlement" & leads to uncompromising behaviour
Insight #5: Keep an eye on ๐จ๐ณ
No need to be naรฏve though: ๐จ๐ณ still a threat
Xi Jinping & CCP rely on narrative of historic humiliation to justify their power
This narrative "instills ๐จ๐ณ policy with a strong sense of entitlement" & leads to uncompromising behaviour
12/24
Kausikan: "After all, if I am only trying to reclaim what was taken from me when I was weak..why should I not compromise? Why should I not strongly assert myself to regain my view?"
CCP is unwilling to stop this narrative & compromise
This makes ๐จ๐ณ a threat to watch
Kausikan: "After all, if I am only trying to reclaim what was taken from me when I was weak..why should I not compromise? Why should I not strongly assert myself to regain my view?"
CCP is unwilling to stop this narrative & compromise
This makes ๐จ๐ณ a threat to watch
13/24
Insight #6: What new global order will look like
While ๐บ๐ธ๐จ๐ณ competition not existential, it will remake world order
New world order will have๐competition & tension b/w West &๐จ๐ณ
But, there will be major econ dependency & political collaboration on problems like climate
Insight #6: What new global order will look like
While ๐บ๐ธ๐จ๐ณ competition not existential, it will remake world order
New world order will have๐competition & tension b/w West &๐จ๐ณ
But, there will be major econ dependency & political collaboration on problems like climate
14/24
Best example of this new world: semiconductors
They represent a ๐จ๐ณ tech weakness
While West controls supply chain,๐จ๐ณ is 40% of the global market
Kausikan: You cannot..cut off your companies and those of your allies.. from 40% of the market w/o doing them serious damage"
Best example of this new world: semiconductors
They represent a ๐จ๐ณ tech weakness
While West controls supply chain,๐จ๐ณ is 40% of the global market
Kausikan: You cannot..cut off your companies and those of your allies.. from 40% of the market w/o doing them serious damage"
15/24
Insight #7: ๐บ๐ธ will become more transactional
As competition w.๐จ๐ณ๐๐บ๐ธ will also change
After long wars in Middle East,๐บ๐ธ redefining its role
Bottom Line: ๐บ๐ธ will be more transactional w. allies
It will do a lot for pwrs willing to aid ๐บ๐ธ interests & little for neutrals
Insight #7: ๐บ๐ธ will become more transactional
As competition w.๐จ๐ณ๐๐บ๐ธ will also change
After long wars in Middle East,๐บ๐ธ redefining its role
Bottom Line: ๐บ๐ธ will be more transactional w. allies
It will do a lot for pwrs willing to aid ๐บ๐ธ interests & little for neutrals
16/24
Kausikan: "Trump made..crudely transactional demands..Biden is consultative, but he does not consult partners..for the pleasure of their company. He is consulting us to ascertain what we are prepared to do for ๐บ๐ธ"
Those partners that meet expectations like AUS get AUKUS
Kausikan: "Trump made..crudely transactional demands..Biden is consultative, but he does not consult partners..for the pleasure of their company. He is consulting us to ascertain what we are prepared to do for ๐บ๐ธ"
Those partners that meet expectations like AUS get AUKUS
17/24
Kausikan: "If you do not meet expectations, Mr. Biden will probably still be polite, but you should not expect to be taken too seriously. And the shift to a more transactional whether polite or otherwise American foreign policy is, I think, permanent"
Kausikan: "If you do not meet expectations, Mr. Biden will probably still be polite, but you should not expect to be taken too seriously. And the shift to a more transactional whether polite or otherwise American foreign policy is, I think, permanent"
18/24
Insight #8: What the new order means for ๐ฎ๐ณ
1. Can't avoid engaging w. both ๐บ๐ธ&๐จ๐ณ
"Without ๐บ๐ธ, there can be no balance to ๐จ๐ณ anywhere. And w/o engagement w.๐จ๐ณ, ๐บ๐ธ may well take us for granted"
This engagement w. aggressive ๐จ๐ณ & transactional ๐บ๐ธ has a catch
Insight #8: What the new order means for ๐ฎ๐ณ
1. Can't avoid engaging w. both ๐บ๐ธ&๐จ๐ณ
"Without ๐บ๐ธ, there can be no balance to ๐จ๐ณ anywhere. And w/o engagement w.๐จ๐ณ, ๐บ๐ธ may well take us for granted"
This engagement w. aggressive ๐จ๐ณ & transactional ๐บ๐ธ has a catch
19/24
2. Concern over ๐บ๐ธ๐จ๐ณ behaviour will lead to looser alliances
Kausikan:"I know of no country that is without concerns about some aspect or another, of both ๐บ๐ธ &๐จ๐ณ behavior.. and they exist even in the closest of American allies, and in States deeply dependent on China"
2. Concern over ๐บ๐ธ๐จ๐ณ behaviour will lead to looser alliances
Kausikan:"I know of no country that is without concerns about some aspect or another, of both ๐บ๐ธ &๐จ๐ณ behavior.. and they exist even in the closest of American allies, and in States deeply dependent on China"
20/24
Kausikan: "Dealing with major pwrs with whom we cannot avoid working but do not entirely trust requires strategic autonomy.. Few countries will commit to aligning themselves across the entire range of issues with any single major power"
This will impact even ๐บ๐ธ alliances
Kausikan: "Dealing with major pwrs with whom we cannot avoid working but do not entirely trust requires strategic autonomy.. Few countries will commit to aligning themselves across the entire range of issues with any single major power"
This will impact even ๐บ๐ธ alliances
21/24
Implications for ๐ฎ๐ณ
Kausikan: Search for autonomy "does not mean that alliances or less formal arrangements, like the Quad will break up, but they will become looser over time, as countries who want to preserve the widest possible range of options for themselves"
Implications for ๐ฎ๐ณ
Kausikan: Search for autonomy "does not mean that alliances or less formal arrangements, like the Quad will break up, but they will become looser over time, as countries who want to preserve the widest possible range of options for themselves"
22/24
Insight #9: Why ๐ฎ๐ณ is uniquely positioned to succeed
Successful ctries. in new order will have to pursue autonomy & will need to be comfortable w. constant shifts in int'l politics & shifting transactional alliances
๐ฎ๐ณ's foreign policy is well suited to this new order
Insight #9: Why ๐ฎ๐ณ is uniquely positioned to succeed
Successful ctries. in new order will have to pursue autonomy & will need to be comfortable w. constant shifts in int'l politics & shifting transactional alliances
๐ฎ๐ณ's foreign policy is well suited to this new order
23/24
๐ฎ๐ณ's foreign policy values
-Strategic autonomy
-Issue-based alliances (defence ties w. ๐ท๐บ, energy ties w. Iran, econ. & pol w. ๐บ๐ธ)
-Good ties w. various geopolitical blocs
๐ฎ๐ณ has a mindset that is comfortable w. ambiguity & autonomy
This sets ๐ฎ๐ณ apart in new order
๐ฎ๐ณ's foreign policy values
-Strategic autonomy
-Issue-based alliances (defence ties w. ๐ท๐บ, energy ties w. Iran, econ. & pol w. ๐บ๐ธ)
-Good ties w. various geopolitical blocs
๐ฎ๐ณ has a mindset that is comfortable w. ambiguity & autonomy
This sets ๐ฎ๐ณ apart in new order
24/24
Insight #10: What ๐ฎ๐ณ must do
Ctries. will have one goal in new order: "achieving a position that will enable you to benefit from interdependence while๐ your own vulnerabilities and exploiting your rivalsโ vulnerabilities"
Interdependence is a tool to use & guard against
Insight #10: What ๐ฎ๐ณ must do
Ctries. will have one goal in new order: "achieving a position that will enable you to benefit from interdependence while๐ your own vulnerabilities and exploiting your rivalsโ vulnerabilities"
Interdependence is a tool to use & guard against
Kudos to @DrSJaishankar, MEA & the Policy Planning team for organising this
For the full lecture: youtu.be
For the full lecture: youtu.be
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