A @KittySquiddy Special: This month in China, January 2023 π¨π³π§΅
A monthly summary of market news and headlines from China.
By @Bardamu_31 @bbsteamer @bubbagumo @foxglobalinvest @jordicalaveraa and @KiwiPMI
By @Bardamu_31 @bbsteamer @bubbagumo @foxglobalinvest @jordicalaveraa and @KiwiPMI
Some 2023 predictions by @ZhangTaisu
2 Jan: @gideonrachman looks at the current confusion in the West's approach to China - as a policy based around globalisation gives way to one based on great power rivalry.
ft.com
ft.com
3 Jan: Urban traffic data is showing a peak in exit wave infections.
h/t @INArteCarloDoss
bloomberg.com
h/t @INArteCarloDoss
bloomberg.com
3 Jan: The Caixin manufacturing PMI fell to 49.0 in December from 49.4 in November. The index has stayed below 50 points for five straight months. However, mobility data likely bottomed in December.
reuters.com
reuters.com
3 Jan: Zoltan Posner argues that the rising role of countries like China, Saudi Arabia and Russia as bankers to the developing world, displacing the US in the process, implies the decline of the dollar and of the exorbitant privilege.
h/t @bbsteamer
plus2.credit-suisse.com
h/t @bbsteamer
plus2.credit-suisse.com
3 Jan: Any forecasts that the oil trade will de-dollarize are trendy. But the petro-yuan faces one small problem: neither the GCC countries nor China needs financing from each other.
h/t @Brad_Setser
h/t @Brad_Setser
5 Jan: SCMP - US computer giant Dell to replace all China-made chips in its products by 2024 amid tensions between Beijing and Washington.
h/t @bbsteamer
scmp.com
h/t @bbsteamer
scmp.com
6 Jan: China may ease βThree Red Linesβ. For them to backpedal on something they have been implementing over a few years with good policy intent implies that the Chinese economy must be worse than what we know.
h/t @KiwiPMI, @foxglobalinvest
bloomberg.com
h/t @KiwiPMI, @foxglobalinvest
bloomberg.com
The biggest drop in Chinese cement production in two decades π Draw your own conclusions.
h/t @Lvieweconomics
h/t @Lvieweconomics
8 Jan: Why China's reopening was so sudden. It seems like it was not well coordinated/planned.
h/t @foxglobalinvest
thediplomat.com
h/t @foxglobalinvest
thediplomat.com
9 Jan: China Re-opening data
h/t @ed_fin
h/t @ed_fin
9 Jan: Japan bets big on bringing semiconductor manufacturing home. It is also, in effect, a broad-based defence mobilization program to contain an increasingly ambitious China.
foreignpolicy.com
foreignpolicy.com
10 Jan: Oil is the asset not pricing the China reopening. China is currently between 1.5 and 2 mbd below trend in consumption. A lot of that will come back in H1 when SPR release story is over, Russia has banned sales to many and global inventories are low.
h/t @INArteCarloDoss
h/t @INArteCarloDoss
14 Jan: Covid death rate climbs. While COVID death statistics are widely considered under-reported, the sheer magnitude of carnage is substantial.
h/t @ZichenWanghere
h/t @ZichenWanghere
15 Jan: China CPI's housing components for both Owner Equivalent and Rental are negative, the only other time they happened together in the last 20 years was in 2020.
h/t @liqian_ren
h/t @liqian_ren
Jan 16: Chinaβs demographic nightmare is reversible but the people must want more children.
17 Jan: China's re-opening is misunderstood because the scope of household savings is under-reported. There is > RMB 2 trillion in HH excess savings, thatβs almost 1.8% of GDP, up massively from pre-COVID. Chinese spending will be anything but deflationary.
h/t @INArteCarloDoss
h/t @INArteCarloDoss
18 Jan: Global oil demand is set to rise to an all-time high in 2023 as China relaxes its Covid-19 restrictions in a move that may push crude prices higher in the second half of the year, according to the IEA.
ft.com
ft.com
19 Jan: The China Construction unwind is way past its peak. With new measures, CCP will likely manage to stabilise it in a couple of quarters.
19 Jan: It seems tech workers arenβt as optimistic as investors about loosening regulations. Chinaβs money and talent are flowing to sectors deemed as more strategically important.
h/t @foxglobalinvest
ft.com
h/t @foxglobalinvest
ft.com
20 Jan: Belt & Road wheels coming off.
21 Jan: A number of Chinese-built mega-projects in less developed countries had serious construction flaws. Once is an error, too many times in too many places is systematic.
h/t @JChengWSJ
h/t @JChengWSJ
26 Jan: China demographic pain.
26 Jan: SCMP - China debt: is the bubble about to burst, and what is driving the crisis among local governments?
h/t @bbsteamer
scmp.com
h/t @bbsteamer
scmp.com
27 Jan: Japan and the Netherlands are poised to join the US in limiting Chinaβs access to advanced semiconductor machinery, forging a powerful alliance that will undercut Beijingβs ambitions to build its own domestic chip capabilities.
bloomberg.com
bloomberg.com
29 Jan: Something to keep a lookout is whether runxue will continue to increase even after the China reopen.
h/t @foxglobalinvest
scmp.com
h/t @foxglobalinvest
scmp.com
The End!
Loading suggestions...