steve hsu
steve hsu

@hsu_steve

6 Tweets 8 reads Feb 02, 2023
Total US STEM grads ~16M
PRC: +5M grads per annum now, but started from a much lower base. US grads ~500k pa, so +4.5M gap.
Every ~4y PRC gets NEW STEM workforce = ENTIRE US STEM workforce.
Next 10y S&T innovation will be very different from last 10y!
ncses.nsf.gov
Most people cannot adapt their thinking to this kind of rapid change.
PRC has caught up in almost every field, only semiconductors and a few other narrow verticals remain.
Catch-up phase is over, new innovations in next 10y will come increasingly from China.
1926: there were literally NO AMERICAN PROFs who understood quantum mechanics. Oppenheimer had to go to Gottingen to learn quantum theory.
He started the FIRST US school of modern theoretical physics at Berkeley-Caltech. But US eventually surpassed Europe...
Same pattern: tiny number of world class researchers in China in 2000, now large numbers in 2020.
Can't extrapolate US-China S&T innovation pattern from 10 or 20y ago to what will happen in next 10-20y.
US is going to get less and less of top talent from PRC in future.
Why would a top STEM talent in Shenzhen move to US? 🤔
That person might have modest English skills - cf foreign grad teaching assistants at US unis.
They fit in better culturally at home, and don't face discrimination - eg Ivies? SCOTUS?🙈
Career options better now in PRC.
US universities discriminate against US-BORN Asian American applicants. For 20y: use "holistic" BS to hide soft quotas!
Asians in Asia aware of this.
How do you think a FOREIGN-born Asian with a thick accent gets treated in interviews, promotions, etc.?
infoproc.blogspot.com

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