Michael Pettis
Michael Pettis

@michaelxpettis

5 Tweets Apr 18, 2023
1/5
Supply-side economics and trickle-down theory: "“We must guarantee economic growth of above 5% this year. If economic growth revives, companies will have money and people will have jobs and incomes."
reuters.com
2/5
Trickle-down worked powerfully in the 1990s and 2000s, when China's severe underinvestment left it with a great deal of pent-up demand that could be productively satisfied with supply-side support to the economy.
3/5
But in the past fifteen years the demand needed to balance continued supply-side support has required both soaring debt and soaring trade surpluses.
4/5
The good news is that by now most prominent economists and economic policy advisor seem to understand that only a switch from supply-side support to demand-side support can sustain growth.
5/5
The bad news is that they don't seem to recognize the associated near-term costs of doing so, and how powerful the institutional constraints that prevent this shift are likely to be.

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