Shashank Mattoo
Shashank Mattoo

@MattooShashank

12 Tweets Mar 04, 2023
1. How a balloon took down ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ ties
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ's "spy balloon" hovering over US has dominated the news
-Entered US airspace on January 28 & was finally shot down on Feb 6
-Balloon hovered over sensitive ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ military sites including some housing nukes
washingtonpost.com
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ claimed balloon's entry into ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ was "unintentional" but called US shooting down the balloon "unacceptable"
Outrage expressed by senior US politicians w. ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ's actions
While ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ claimed balloon did not pose security threat, Secy. of State Blinken cancelled visit to ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ
Why This Matters to ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ
-Cancellation of Blinken visit is major news: goal was that ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ&๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ would find ways to๐Ÿ“‰tensions & create some stability
-Anger over brazen ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ intelligence op has derailed that; competition to continue
-๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ's interest is in stable competition b/w ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ&๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ
2. Asia Power Index 2023
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ ranked 4th most powerful ctry in Asia after ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ,๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ & ๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต
Ranking based on metrics like diplomatic influence, econ. strength, defence partnerships
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ scores well on diplomatic influence, resource potential & def. pwr; does badly on econ. partnerships
Despite decent headline numbers, report labels ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ a "patchy power"
-๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ has enormous resources & potential but punches below its weight; influence largely concentrated in neighbourhood
-Lack of economic influence, small diplomatic service๐Ÿ“‰๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ's potential
Why it Matters
-Shows that ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ's economic diplomacy & networks in region remain weak w/o strong trade linkages; can't be Asian power w/o pan-Asia econ. ties
-Shows need to expand size of diplomatic service
-Shows that security diplomacy (like sale of BrahMos) is๐Ÿ“ˆdef. influence
3. Prachanda's govt in Nepal unstable
Just a month after taking office, leftist govt. of Prachanda in Nepal sees mass resignation of ministers
Key ally, Rashtriya Swatantra Party, quits govt. after Prachanda refused to give Home Ministry to RSP leader
indianexpress.com
Why This Matters to ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ has historically been closer to opposition Nepali Congress led by Sher Deuba
However, 2022 elections saw Prachanda form govt w. KP Sharma Oli; both leaders have complicated ties w. ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ
Loss of key ally 1 month after govt formation bad sign for govt
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ will watch developments closely as there was worry abt. whether Prachanda govt would take more confrontation stance w. ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ
Prachanda government not in immediate trouble but instability may hurt it & make it even more dependent on KP Sharma Oli
4. Bailout relief for ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ?
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ's reeling economy may receive $1.1 billion in bailout funds from IMF in exchange for econ. reforms
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ will have to๐Ÿ“ˆtaxes,๐Ÿ“‰subsidies & bring more econ. transparency
PM Sharif: IMF conditions are "beyond imagination" but will have to accept
Why It Matters to ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ
-May prevent total collapse in ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ which spares Delhi from having to deal w. humanitarian crisis on its doorstep
-๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ's forex reserves, econ. growth rate have๐Ÿ“‰while inflation & poverty๐Ÿ“ˆ
-๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ's focus may be on internal reform & not stoking trouble w. ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ
5. ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ nuclear treaty in crisis
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ has accused ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ of not complying w. New Start treaty

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