since ppl ask me this all the time, off top of my head will try to give some advice on timing rotations & predicting narratives ahead of time
what i recommend doing for trading narratives: 1/?
what i recommend doing for trading narratives: 1/?
1) keep a list of the different sectors in crypto
for ex:
DeFi basket
Decentralized Derivs
Lending/Borrowing Protocols
AMMs
GameFi basket
L2s-zero knowledge rollups
L2s-optimistic rollups
L1s
A.I.
App-Chains
Privacy
etc. etc.
have a shortlist of tickers for each group
for ex:
DeFi basket
Decentralized Derivs
Lending/Borrowing Protocols
AMMs
GameFi basket
L2s-zero knowledge rollups
L2s-optimistic rollups
L1s
A.I.
App-Chains
Privacy
etc. etc.
have a shortlist of tickers for each group
you may think this is trivial, but most ppl do not take the time to do so - and of those who do there are way less checking charts consistently everyday
coingecko gives you a decent place to start w/ their categories page
coingecko.com
coingecko gives you a decent place to start w/ their categories page
coingecko.com
personally keep all my lists in tradingview and/or dexscreener, it is helpful to look at each sector together to see how they are trending/outperforming/underperforming
after you have your shortlist, set alerts at key levels so you get notified when trends may be shifting
after you have your shortlist, set alerts at key levels so you get notified when trends may be shifting
whether you use ema, trendlines, horizontals, ichimoku cloud
you need a framework for when you consider an asset trending down, trending up, or mostly trading in a range
whichever you use you should have a way to identify when trends are shifting
you need a framework for when you consider an asset trending down, trending up, or mostly trading in a range
whichever you use you should have a way to identify when trends are shifting
in crypto, it is very common when leaders of a sector begin doing well - other associated protocols end up getting a bid also
saw this a ton during 2021 with the rotation between different L1s and comparing valuations between market caps
saw this a ton during 2021 with the rotation between different L1s and comparing valuations between market caps
will say that the later stages of this to the weaker tickers are usually when the narrative is ending
sandwich.finance is good for importing all of the tickers from coinbase/binance etc
sandwich.finance is good for importing all of the tickers from coinbase/binance etc
2) keep a list of upcoming fundamental developments happening in the space
for ex: ETH merge, ETH shanghai upgrade, Cosmos Interchain Security launch, CRV stablecoin launch, Chilliz 2.0, Matic zkEVM, SOL fee markets etc etc.
this is harder to do since there is so much going on
for ex: ETH merge, ETH shanghai upgrade, Cosmos Interchain Security launch, CRV stablecoin launch, Chilliz 2.0, Matic zkEVM, SOL fee markets etc etc.
this is harder to do since there is so much going on
thankfully for you, many ppl do all of this legwork for you >here< and on many other blogging mediums
some good ones:
pageone.gg
blocmates.com
some good ones:
pageone.gg
blocmates.com
I'd also recommend making twitter lists of different ecosystems similar to how you do so for tickers on tradingview - if you use tweetdeck you can organize them by column and scroll through each relatively quickly
regardless, however you decide to track this information - keep a calendar of some sort so you are not reacting to things late, the best way is to read directly from protocol's announcement pages when they're released
it is easier to react in real-time when you already have a good grasp of which events are upcoming and what all of the associated dates are
outperformance/underperformance typically happens way before the event actually occurs since ppl position ahead of time
outperformance/underperformance typically happens way before the event actually occurs since ppl position ahead of time
3) Reacting to news from other sources
great example of this recently has been how hot A.I. coins have been after the surging popularity of ChatGPT
similar to how metaverse sector did very well when FB rebranded to "Meta"
great example of this recently has been how hot A.I. coins have been after the surging popularity of ChatGPT
similar to how metaverse sector did very well when FB rebranded to "Meta"
since crypto trades 24/7 it is a great vehicle for ppl speculating on these events, and there is typically a ton of attention that gets focused on very niche segments
a lot of ppl saw both the Meta & ChatGPT events but never thought "what is the trade here" which is a skill
a lot of ppl saw both the Meta & ChatGPT events but never thought "what is the trade here" which is a skill
4) Acknowledging outliers in price action
This is by far the easiest way to pickup on these emerging trends
Best examples I can think of are Axie during late 2021 and GMX during middle of 2022
rest of market was continuously trending down while these reversed way before
This is by far the easiest way to pickup on these emerging trends
Best examples I can think of are Axie during late 2021 and GMX during middle of 2022
rest of market was continuously trending down while these reversed way before
You usually have at least a week to catch these happening in real-time before it gets hard to hop on trends
best signal will be what is outperforming on days the entire market is down
as well as which charts are breaking key levels first - which you should have alerts set for
best signal will be what is outperforming on days the entire market is down
as well as which charts are breaking key levels first - which you should have alerts set for
if you really want to get good at this id recommend just watching the 5 minute chart of identified leaders compared to majors when the market is selling off
you will see it develop there first and get confirmation on higher timeframes later
you will see it develop there first and get confirmation on higher timeframes later
may add to this if i think of anything else, but usually you don't have to be entirely accurate with the *prediction* part of it, if you have all the tools & theses in place to react faster than everyone else
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