#Sudan
How do you solve a problem like Minawi/Gibreil?
It's tempting to just ignore them: they have no credibility (especially post-Cairo), no constituency and without patronage from Burhan and Hemedti, no leverage. What was meant to be a coup de grace at Cairo ended up a bust +
How do you solve a problem like Minawi/Gibreil?
It's tempting to just ignore them: they have no credibility (especially post-Cairo), no constituency and without patronage from Burhan and Hemedti, no leverage. What was meant to be a coup de grace at Cairo ended up a bust +
and throwing into sharper relief just how little leverage they can muster, in Khartoum. And as the recent press conference/ press has shown, they have much less bluster than in the pre-Cairo days.
They are starting to get it.
So does the FFC-CC, which unlike M/G's faction +
They are starting to get it.
So does the FFC-CC, which unlike M/G's faction +
has been both pretty consistent in its message (and it's name), and continues to insist that they join the political process as individuals groups rather than a bloc, reading correctly that without said bloc M/G have even less leverage, despite continuing to be armed and liable +
to continue to be armed for the foreseeable future.Successful DDR requires 2 things:
- a clear victor, which there isn't, especially after the JPA extended a lifeline to M/G and other signatories and
- SSR for SAF/RSF, which looks unlikely as Burhan/Hemedti chase security pacts+
- a clear victor, which there isn't, especially after the JPA extended a lifeline to M/G and other signatories and
- SSR for SAF/RSF, which looks unlikely as Burhan/Hemedti chase security pacts+
As expected, Cairo did not derail the FA and upon return participants did not get the desired hero's welcome
Now that Cairo has fallen flat, M/G may seek other sources of leverage and we can expect heavy politicking.
The FFC-CC has hinted at talks with the generals and M/G soon +
Now that Cairo has fallen flat, M/G may seek other sources of leverage and we can expect heavy politicking.
The FFC-CC has hinted at talks with the generals and M/G soon +
Within a transitional government, as before, M/G will continue to undermine democratic progress - they prize positions in government, not democracy - but it's likely the FFC-CC will have to share power with them, anyway - such is the nature of payroll peace, codified in the JPA +
The FFC-CC will need to demonstrate *credibly* that they want the opposite - democracy and not merely positions in government - but may be hamstrung by the Faustian pact it took to get the FA signed in the first place
In the meantime, they should think carefully about agreeing +
In the meantime, they should think carefully about agreeing +
to share power with M/G - and others - without guardrails on their ability to majorly disrupt the next transition.
This will also entail moving away from the false binary of preferring Hemedti to Burhan or vice versa - something all other political actors are guilty of, too.
This will also entail moving away from the false binary of preferring Hemedti to Burhan or vice versa - something all other political actors are guilty of, too.
The next transitional government may yet be formed - despite the great threat to the FA by its signatories, chiefly SAF - but it will be weak. It will certainly not be able to withstand such levels of internal instability as current political tensions demonstrate.
End
#Sudan
End
#Sudan
Loading suggestions...