🧵How Worried Should you be about the New Palestine Train Derailment?🧵
1/
We've seen a lot of shady stuff out of the Norfolk southern and the government following the recent crash
But one of the craziest things has just been the media's failure to present the highschool math.
1/
We've seen a lot of shady stuff out of the Norfolk southern and the government following the recent crash
But one of the craziest things has just been the media's failure to present the highschool math.
2/
I've seen truly apocalyptic predictions for what the derailment means... so lets calculate it
The vinyl chloride released is nasty stuff
Up til the 1970s workers were exposed to 1000+ parts per million (ppm) and developed "Vinyl Chloride Illness" A mix of horrific symptoms
I've seen truly apocalyptic predictions for what the derailment means... so lets calculate it
The vinyl chloride released is nasty stuff
Up til the 1970s workers were exposed to 1000+ parts per million (ppm) and developed "Vinyl Chloride Illness" A mix of horrific symptoms
3/
But at even low levels Exposure at 300ppm causes observable liver damage in humans, and even at 250 ppm for as few as 4 hours a day rare liver cancers are observed in rats. Indeed as low as 4-10ppm liver damage is seen in rats.
So how worried should you be?
But at even low levels Exposure at 300ppm causes observable liver damage in humans, and even at 250 ppm for as few as 4 hours a day rare liver cancers are observed in rats. Indeed as low as 4-10ppm liver damage is seen in rats.
So how worried should you be?
4/
10 cars of vinyl chloride were involved in the crash.
Assuming a standard DOT-111 tank car that's 1,139,790 Liters of Vinyl Chloride or ~1038 metric tons.
Within a single Cubic kilometer, (assuming it reaches that high, which it should, lighter than water)
That's 1.03ppm
10 cars of vinyl chloride were involved in the crash.
Assuming a standard DOT-111 tank car that's 1,139,790 Liters of Vinyl Chloride or ~1038 metric tons.
Within a single Cubic kilometer, (assuming it reaches that high, which it should, lighter than water)
That's 1.03ppm
5/
OSHA defines the permissible exposure limit for Vinyl Chloride at 1ppm for an 8 hr work day.
So 24hr living within 1-5 kms of the crash strikes me as dangerous, especially this soon after the crash when there might be larger concentrations within small localized areas.
OSHA defines the permissible exposure limit for Vinyl Chloride at 1ppm for an 8 hr work day.
So 24hr living within 1-5 kms of the crash strikes me as dangerous, especially this soon after the crash when there might be larger concentrations within small localized areas.
6/
OSHA says for a more concentrated amount of 5ppm, it only a permissible risk if limited to a max 15 minutes of exposure
They've evacuated the area within a mile (1.6km) of the crash, but i wouldn't want to risk just being downwind at the wrong angle within 5km of the crash
OSHA says for a more concentrated amount of 5ppm, it only a permissible risk if limited to a max 15 minutes of exposure
They've evacuated the area within a mile (1.6km) of the crash, but i wouldn't want to risk just being downwind at the wrong angle within 5km of the crash
7/
Now the intervention they're pursuing, burning the Vinyl Chloride, makes sense
this get it high into the atmosphere where it can dilute to safe levels away from people
AND
It causes the Vinyl chloride to combust into safer compounds, mostly C02 and Hydrogen Chloride
Now the intervention they're pursuing, burning the Vinyl Chloride, makes sense
this get it high into the atmosphere where it can dilute to safe levels away from people
AND
It causes the Vinyl chloride to combust into safer compounds, mostly C02 and Hydrogen Chloride
7/
C02 of course is our favourite exhalent and greenhouse gas exhaust... harmless to human life, at least when inhaled.
And Hydrogen Chloride.
(Also possibly Carbon Monoxide if there's not enough oxygen, but that's not a relevant concern.)
C02 of course is our favourite exhalent and greenhouse gas exhaust... harmless to human life, at least when inhaled.
And Hydrogen Chloride.
(Also possibly Carbon Monoxide if there's not enough oxygen, but that's not a relevant concern.)
8/
Now Hydrogen Chlroride is dangerous at high levels, but OSHA says 5ppm is acceptable in an 8 hr workday, which is a massive improvement especially when one considers the amount is significantly reduced by the double digit percentage that becomes harmless CO2
Now Hydrogen Chlroride is dangerous at high levels, but OSHA says 5ppm is acceptable in an 8 hr workday, which is a massive improvement especially when one considers the amount is significantly reduced by the double digit percentage that becomes harmless CO2
9/
But Hydrogen Chloride is not carcinogenic.
The danger posed is that it becomes Hydrochloric Acid on contact with water, including that of your skin.
at 35ppm it causes irritation of the throat, and at 50ppm work becomes impossible if inhaling it (according to 1930s studies)
But Hydrogen Chloride is not carcinogenic.
The danger posed is that it becomes Hydrochloric Acid on contact with water, including that of your skin.
at 35ppm it causes irritation of the throat, and at 50ppm work becomes impossible if inhaling it (according to 1930s studies)
10/
Larger exposures result in redness, irritation, and chemical burns.
Though notably its still doesn't cause chronic diseases unrelated to the burns. This of course makes sense given your stomach acid is partly Hydrochloric acid.
Larger exposures result in redness, irritation, and chemical burns.
Though notably its still doesn't cause chronic diseases unrelated to the burns. This of course makes sense given your stomach acid is partly Hydrochloric acid.
11/
So how worried should you be about the east Palestine train derailment?
Unless you live right there, Very little.
There are meme maps going around that show a giant circle over the country, suggesting you'll lose years of your life to cancer in like Maine... not a chance
So how worried should you be about the east Palestine train derailment?
Unless you live right there, Very little.
There are meme maps going around that show a giant circle over the country, suggesting you'll lose years of your life to cancer in like Maine... not a chance
12/
I am scandalized the evacuation area was so small, it seems one strong wind could have sent a fairly large gust at someone up to 5 kilometers away, and Hydrogen Chloride even though its vastly less dangerous over a lifetime and dilutes fast might really mess up an asthmatic
I am scandalized the evacuation area was so small, it seems one strong wind could have sent a fairly large gust at someone up to 5 kilometers away, and Hydrogen Chloride even though its vastly less dangerous over a lifetime and dilutes fast might really mess up an asthmatic
13/
But realistically this is diluting so fast and the burning is pitching it so high, and the combustion reaction reducing the danger so much I wouldn't be too worried if I were 20km away let alone 100.
But realistically this is diluting so fast and the burning is pitching it so high, and the combustion reaction reducing the danger so much I wouldn't be too worried if I were 20km away let alone 100.
14/
I'm pretty sure these are just storm clouds bro.
I'm pretty sure these are just storm clouds bro.
15/
For the time being, the true danger of Ohio remains... Ohio
For the time being, the true danger of Ohio remains... Ohio
16/
PS. Don't hesitate to correct my math.
Science wasn't my major or even minor... I'm just an English major who can read a safety data sheet
And that somehow makes me more qualified than every journalist and science influencer I've seen covering this!?
Disappointing
PS. Don't hesitate to correct my math.
Science wasn't my major or even minor... I'm just an English major who can read a safety data sheet
And that somehow makes me more qualified than every journalist and science influencer I've seen covering this!?
Disappointing
P.S.
If you hate Legacy media as much as me you might like my long piece on the absolute state of "Journalism"
open.substack.com
If you hate Legacy media as much as me you might like my long piece on the absolute state of "Journalism"
open.substack.com
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