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1/
COVID accelerated a lot of things, most noticeable has been the decoupling of the US from China.
But one of the most accelerated trends has been the decline of US universities...
Well over half of US schools will close by 2030.
1/
COVID accelerated a lot of things, most noticeable has been the decoupling of the US from China.
But one of the most accelerated trends has been the decline of US universities...
Well over half of US schools will close by 2030.
2/
Notably however, this was the official prediction BEFORE the events of 2020.
The simple fact is despite the outrageous tuitions and outrageous endowments tier 1 US schools command, the vast majority of America's 5000 colleges and universities are near broke.
Notably however, this was the official prediction BEFORE the events of 2020.
The simple fact is despite the outrageous tuitions and outrageous endowments tier 1 US schools command, the vast majority of America's 5000 colleges and universities are near broke.
3/
While Harvard has amassed an endowment of $40 billion, even large state schools have struggling finances.
all the rise in tuition produced for them was increased competition, and unable to compete on academics or prestige they spent their money on massive facilities.
While Harvard has amassed an endowment of $40 billion, even large state schools have struggling finances.
all the rise in tuition produced for them was increased competition, and unable to compete on academics or prestige they spent their money on massive facilities.
4/
A few sports and student facilities are net profitable...
But the vast majority of them are raw expenses meant to attract students.
One of the bigger trends of the past decade has been the spread of lazy rivers and other resort style amenities on campus
A few sports and student facilities are net profitable...
But the vast majority of them are raw expenses meant to attract students.
One of the bigger trends of the past decade has been the spread of lazy rivers and other resort style amenities on campus
5/
In addition to the bloat of administration these expenses were good for attracting students and tuition money, when the millennial population bulge was still driving enrollment.
However that debt and maintenance cost adds up really fast once demographics shift
In addition to the bloat of administration these expenses were good for attracting students and tuition money, when the millennial population bulge was still driving enrollment.
However that debt and maintenance cost adds up really fast once demographics shift
6/
Again just following 2018 trends 50% of US universities were set to go bankrupt by 2030...
But we're no longer on 2018 trend lines. The current forecast is much worse.
The golden goose of Chinese foreign students with their bottomless pockets has been killed.
Again just following 2018 trends 50% of US universities were set to go bankrupt by 2030...
But we're no longer on 2018 trend lines. The current forecast is much worse.
The golden goose of Chinese foreign students with their bottomless pockets has been killed.
7/
Students already enrolled will do nearly anything to complete their degree, as we witnessed with the indignities forced on students during lockdowns...
But new enrollments are a different story.
Students already enrolled will do nearly anything to complete their degree, as we witnessed with the indignities forced on students during lockdowns...
But new enrollments are a different story.
8/
you think you had it hard during lockdown: imagine regular travel between Lockdown happy China, and Lockdown happy blue state universities...for years.
Combine this with an increasing CCP hostility to US ties/education and this crop of Chinese students won't be replaced.
you think you had it hard during lockdown: imagine regular travel between Lockdown happy China, and Lockdown happy blue state universities...for years.
Combine this with an increasing CCP hostility to US ties/education and this crop of Chinese students won't be replaced.
9/
International students are vastly more important than regular students since they're amongst the few who pay full tuitions and don't receive large discounts off of the sticker price.
the US is set to lose upwards of 45% of its 300,000 Chinese foreign students by 2025
International students are vastly more important than regular students since they're amongst the few who pay full tuitions and don't receive large discounts off of the sticker price.
the US is set to lose upwards of 45% of its 300,000 Chinese foreign students by 2025
10/
The Bottom 50% of US schools cannot afford that loss, hell the upper tier of US schools can't really afford that loss.
Real Estate markets in western cities, driven by Asian students and their wealthy investor parents can't afford that loss..
The Bottom 50% of US schools cannot afford that loss, hell the upper tier of US schools can't really afford that loss.
Real Estate markets in western cities, driven by Asian students and their wealthy investor parents can't afford that loss..
11/
This will be one of the biggest societal shifts of the 2020s.
Universities don't just create university graduates... they also employ them. When they start failing en mass expect the "University premium" to take a nose dive..
This will be one of the biggest societal shifts of the 2020s.
Universities don't just create university graduates... they also employ them. When they start failing en mass expect the "University premium" to take a nose dive..
12/
After that well, underemployed university graduate have caused the majority of revolutions in the past 200 years...
After that well, underemployed university graduate have caused the majority of revolutions in the past 200 years...
P.S. I also write long takes
Aristotle theorized "Aristocracy" the impossible dream of "The Rule of the best" and most societies have sought (and failed) to achieve it.
But its opposite is shockingly real...
I present:
Cocytarchy: Rule of the Damned
anarchonomicon.substack.com
Aristotle theorized "Aristocracy" the impossible dream of "The Rule of the best" and most societies have sought (and failed) to achieve it.
But its opposite is shockingly real...
I present:
Cocytarchy: Rule of the Damned
anarchonomicon.substack.com
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