Francesco Sassi
Francesco Sassi

@Frank_Stones

13 Tweets 4 reads Feb 17, 2023
In the future,🇪🇬Egypt could play a much larger role as a gas exporter in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea.
The country's vast resources appeal to🇪🇺EU countries, and several announcements have been made, but the reality on the ground suggests we should proceed one step at a time.
🧵
In 2022, 🇪🇬has been the 5th largest LNG exporter in Africa and the Middle East, with 7.1 mt/y, after:
🇶🇦Qatar - 80 mt/y
🇳🇬Nigeria - 14.5 mt/y
🇴🇲Oman - 11 mt/y
🇩🇿Algeria - 10 mt/y
and ahead of🇦🇪UAE - 5.2 mt/y
The LNG exported by🇪🇬was around 8% higher than in 2021 (6.6 mt/y)
Yet, this is nearly 13% short of the goal set by the same🇪🇬energy ministry back in December of 8 mt/y of exports in 2022.
This meant that the two LNG export facilities built in🇪🇬, the🇬🇧Shell-operated Idku and the🇮🇹Eni-operated Damietta, worked at around 60% of their capacity
Yet, there is also a big difference between the two, with🇮🇹ENI's Damietta exporting its maximum in the 20-year history of the plant, at 4 mt/y or 80% of its capacity, while🇬🇧Shell's Idku staying slightly above the 40% threshold.
In January, 🇮🇹ENI announced a new "significant" offshore discovery in🇪🇬, where it works with🇺🇸Chevron and🇪🇬Tharwa Petroleum and this gas could increase local production
In 2015, 🇮🇹ENI also discovered the giant Zohr field, which now supply around 40% of total🇪🇬gas production.
🇮🇹has a very complex relation with🇪🇬
In 2016, Giulio Regeni, an🇮🇹graduate student was tortured and killed in Cairo. Also, Patrick Zaki, an🇪🇬activist studying in🇮🇹Bologna who had been detained for nearly two years.
On the other hand,🇮🇹🇪🇬energy cooperation has gone forward
with the new🇮🇹government seeking🇪🇬help to counter the political instability in🇱🇾Libya and help🇮🇹to cope with "irregular immigration" and organisations using🇱🇾territory as a departing point.
apnews.com
🇮🇹is among the largest importer of🇪🇬LNG, with
🇹🇷Turkey
🇪🇸Spain
🇰🇷S.Korea
🇫🇷France
🇪🇬EGAS Chairman Galal told recently that🇪🇬aims to add 2 production trains to Idku LNG plant and 3 trains to its Damietta, bringing total capacity to more than 30 mt/y
reuters.com
Yet, with LNG terminals working below their full capacity,🇪🇬will need to source additional gas to feed the already existing infrastructures.
In the short-term, this means more gas coming from🇮🇱Israel or eventually🇨🇾Cyprus to feed the🇪🇬LNG export facilities.
But this requires
trilateral cooperation between companies, extracting gas in🇮🇱&🇨🇾, the🇪🇬and the🇮🇱&🇨🇾governments, while also finalising commercial deals with🇮🇹ENI &🇬🇧Shell to export LNG from their terminals.
A very complex scenario in the politically unstable Middle East and with🇪🇬facing a
domestic economic & financial crisis.
After 3 devaluations in 2022, the🇪🇬Central Bank floated the pound in January to meet an IMF condition for a $3 billion loan, the country’s fourth since 2016.
The move caused shortages of all types of goods.
ft.com
Moreover,🇪🇬has been heavily subsidising energy and electricity prices. The crisis is forcing it to accelerate this process, but because of the internal instability, gas goes to increasingly supply the local demand while mitigating the inflation costs.
zawya.com
The growing gas consumption, coupled with economic and financial instability and regional geopolitics is a great hindrance to🇪🇬ambitions.
In June 2022,🇪🇺Commission signed an MoU with🇪🇬&🇮🇱to supply🇮🇱gas via🇪🇬LNG terminal to🇪🇺.
The question is, who is gonna take such a big risk?

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