One of the largest nbfc loan book and started as a wholesale lending company. But post ilfs most of the wholesale lenders got de-rated. But here a transformation happened.
- liability side - Because of strong parentage, they have access to capital at same cost as Bajaj finance. Mahindra too had npa of 10%+, but due to parentage they still had aaa+ rating.
- Last 5 years they moved away from wholesale to retail lending. Top line didn't change so it went unnoticed by market, but internally they were changing.
- Now sme and retail is 60-65% and wholesale risk is now diversified.
- They are working on cross selling, distribution, channels
- According to me, CEO plays a big role.
- This is also a re-rating recipe. There is no mutual fund holding (surprising for a 35k crore company).
- Risks - slowdown, usual retail stress, changes in budget for life insurance cos, etc.
- We see mcap doubling to a 3-4x in 3-4 years.
Speaker 4 Aditya Khemka @AdityaKhemka5
If you invested 100 in nifty 50 10 years back, Nifty 50 today would be 300.
BSE healthcare Index would be 315. So you would've outperformed by going for healthcare Index.
But BSE HE Index has 2 halfs.
Had you invested 100 in top half you would have 200. Had you invested 100 in bottom half, it would've become 600 in 10 years.
So instead we focus on bottom half of the index. There are 5 types of cos (buckets)
2. Branded generics - this is interesting. Pharma equivalent of FMCG. If you have fever, doctor says crocin and pharmacy gives you crocin.
3. APIs cdmo - India was biggest in 1980s but we reduced due to pollution. Then China gave subsidised power, labour and land.
4. Hospitals - negative working capital. Maran sir explained as well
5. Diagnostics - during covid everyone was talking about this. However while earnings went up, multiples went up even more.
Best time to invest is when the earnings are below long term means and multiples are below long term means.
The idea for today is Krsnaa diagnostics. Krsnaa is a discounted player, so is better positioned due to online.
IPO in Aug 2021 (covid frenzy). IPO was at 950, today they're at 350.
Rationale is simple - you generally don't invest in b2g due to receivables. Krsnaa has a 90 day clause with government. If payment doesn't come, they shut the labs. This can be stressful for the govt.
Reverse DCF tells me 3% top line growth for 6-7 years. We believe a 10-18% growth is possible.
Anti-thesis: IT raid report was a risk. pricing pressure due to online
Speaker 5 Sanjeev Pandya @PandiyaSanjeev
UPL
- I was looking for a disruptive industry. Agriculture was one such. In that cleantech was an agenda. Another question was are we a natural owner of that industry? Are processes innovative?
UPL - One of the world's biggest buyers of soft commodities. Multiple plants, deep processes, various products. This was the old UPL.
They are in touch with 120 startups who have molecules but no distribution.
UPL is the 5th biggest, but the top 4 are patent players and once things go off patent, it will come to UPL.
India is the 2nd largest agricultural nation and largest agrarian nation. India has 50% extra rainfall.
UPL has done 53 acquisitions in 25 years. Most value is created when diverse parts of biz integrate. Market doesn't see this.
Speaker 6 Jatin Khemani @Jatin_Khemani
Big Bull says bet on 'change' (earnings growth, quality or re-rating).
The company makes steel wires and ropes. Applications: Elevators, Cranes, Offshore cranes, bridges, etc.
For this company, the biggest demand 75% is consumables so frequent demand and 25% from infra and capex.
Mission critical application - cost of failure is higher than cost of ownership.
Ebitda per ton is 20k per ton but other steel guys make 4-5k ebitda per ton.
Steady biz, leadership, high margins etc. Should be trading at 10-12k crore? But its at 5k crore.
Reasons? Why is it out of radar?
- absolute absense of growth.
- bankruptcy risk in 2018
- family feud over control
Last 10 years top line moved 1600 to 2000 cr. Ebit also flat.
Now what's changing?
- global demand seems to be moving. Oil & gas, mining, infra, real estate etc.
- Running at 85% capacity.
- Indian peers such as Bharat wire and bedmutha are struggling due to WC, debt issues.
Complete transformation
- Issue was due to a steel plant that they put up 10 years back. They sold it to tata and paid off debt
- Femily feud is also gone with Rajeev clearly leading the co now.
Recent trigger.
In 2017, a 1k crore mcap, 5k crore debt and loss making.
In 2022, 17% roe, 270cr profit, 5k crore mcap and a PE of 20.
Overhangs? Ousted brother continues to sell in the market. Still owns 15%. 400cr contingent liability but it's not a material case.
So in summary a case of variant perception.
From CMP, expect 50-100% return in 2-3 years.
Disclosure: part of stalwart and personal portfolio. Personal views, so could be wrong.
Company is Usha Martin
Speaker 7 Mehul Bhatt
(Disclaimer)
We like companies with a management change apart from
1. mispriced biz
2. spin-offs / special situations and
3. Long term compounders
Quiz: Guess the company
1000cr+ profit
Single digit multiple
Roe>18%
11% revenue growth, 15% profit growth, Roe 17%.
Redington India.
$9bn distribution and supply chain solutions provider. Operate in 40 markets and partner with top electronic brands.
They have 2 divisions:
2. Mobility biz of distributing devices.
The 2nd is an interesting space as it's a low margin, critical model but it's moving from a pure product based to a service led model.
70% revenue from IT, 30% from mobility. Apple is 30% of the biz (majority from iPhones). In IT, cloud is interesting.
Speaker 8 Amit Jeswani @Amit_Jeswani1
Profit pools of industries are dominated by 2-3 companies at Max.
Take bags marker. VIP and Samsonite list market share to Safari and the same can be seen in their stock price CAGR.
Even shoes market - Mirza trades at 1/4th the mcap of campus whereas it has a higher profit.
So we need to find leaders gaining market share.
Take 2W industry. eicher went from <1 10 yrs back to 11% share and stock went up 2200%. Similar with TVS.
Same story with apl Apollo and insurance sector.
Policy Bazaar
- mcap of 22k crore
- J curve has started.
Speaker 9 Ankit Kanodia @kanodiaankit12
@SmartSyncServ
RateGain
New age companies is almost an abusive word nowadays. And market sometimes paints everyone with the same brush.
We look for an ancillary ka ancilliary when we look at a sector.
But RateGain is an ancilliary to OTAs and is used in the background by many. There's a saying "best of the platforms are invisible".
If data is the new oil, what is RateGain?
Major customers are large hotels based out of US, UK.
If I check into a hotel and tomorrow's there's an IPL match, the hotelier doesn't know he can sell me an IPL ticket.
1. MarTech
2. Distribution - Acquired dhisco. It was in losses. In 9 months they turned it profitable. They simply changed their data centres from us to India.
This co was started by a Bhanu Chopra and owns more than 50% stake even after IPO.
More than 2300 customers. Across OTAs, Airlines, Hotel Chains, package providers, Car rentals, etc.
Post 2014, have acquired and grown majorly through acquisitions and have a very sound M&A process.
Space is competitive but advantage is RateGain is the only integrated player.
No capex need, no cyclicality.
Was trading at 18 times sales during IPO, but now it's at 9 times sales. Expect it to trade at 5-15 times sales.
Speaker 10 KR Senthilnathan @krsenthilnathan
Furniture consumption has changed:
Teak wood -> carpenter -> passed on to next gen.
Due to urbanization we don't have space for large furniture. More comfortable with readymade furniture.
MDF is smooth finish, cheaper and easy to fix. Only disadvantage is it can be screwed only 3-4 times.
Wood Panel industry is 28k crores and MDF is 3k cr market. Expected to grow to 6k crore by 2026.
Greenpanel
Demerged from Greenply. Roe, roce etc are above 30% indicating quality.
MDF has 2 grades - interior and exterior grades.
2019-22, revenue and PAT grew. All good things happened and stock also moved from 30 to 600 rs.
Concerns:
- Duties on Imports not yet approved
- US consumption of MDF may hit a bottom
Valuation
Approx 360cr cash generation per year
Working capital is just 25 days approx
So 10.5% cash yield from absolute pov
Relative valuations are also generous
Speaker 11 Aditi @aditikasbekar
Kirloskar Oil Engines
(Disclaimer)
- 77 year old flagship biz of Kirloskar group with strong reputation
- 4.5k cr mcap. 4k cr sales
- Power & Industrial engines are 68%.
1. strategy to grow sales 2x in 3 years
a. Genset - power theme - power shortage in India and abroad. Increasing share of renewable energy.
b. Engine - infra theme
c. Huge exports potential
d. Double digit ebitda margins
2. New mgmt
3. Value unlocking potential
Trading at discount to peers and historical multiples.
4. Risks and downside
- Execution risk
- Potential demand slowdown after summer
- Raw Material price risk
Growth story, margin expansion and value unlocking potential through string execution and nbfc monetization
Speaker 12 Niteen Dharmawat @niteen_india
Greaves Cotton
(Disclaimer)
- 160+ year old company
- In Automotive segment, provides power train solutions + Ampere electric 2W & 3W
- Non automotive - gensets and related industries
EV
- ebitda is higher in 2w and will increase for 3w segment too
- 6th largest ev player in India. Greaves gets fame subsidy whereas hero / Okinawa doesn't get.
- Saudis invested 220mn$ in Greaves electric mobility (gem) for 36% stake. That deal itself values gem at 3000cr which is mcap of Greaves Cotton itself
Big 4 auditors.
Risks
- Subsidy change
- War escalation can hit raw material supplies
- Raw material price changes
- Power train biz has competitive landscape
Speaker 13 Abhijit Choksi @stockifi_Invest
HBL Power Systems Ltd
Current revenue split is Batteries - 64%, Railway & Defence - balance.
I expect batteries to become 1/3rd and railway & defence which are better margins to become 2/3rd.
But story here is not batteries but railways and defence.
Risks:
- Keyman risk (Mr Prasad's age is 75)
- No cost pass through. So margins can get impacted
Speaker 14 Dayanand Deshpande @MysticWealth11 (Darshan Shah spoke on his behalf)
- Started as Asian paints division, then spun off
- Significant player in synthetic rubber and latex.
- Long growth runway. Apcotex is 1/27th in size to Synthomer (UK).
- Huge upcoming capex.
- Promoter started buying.
- Margin profile improving.
- weakening demand
- RM price rise
- import dumping
Speaker 15 @deepakshenoy
LIC
3 principles
- be agile: beliefs, not identities
- stocks don't live you back
- price often tells you about a stock
Why?
- Aggressive, large, mature insurer
- Valuation: low enuf to give cmft at 4L cr
• profitability spike
• one-timers to away
• non-participating biz focus
- Risks
• PSU
• Dilution by govt
• Tax changes
• Competition wants market share
Roughly 65% of market share in new business premiums. 97% share in group.
In non participating, 100% surplus goes to shareholders.
Even the management didn't know this until sept 2022. Because they don't have a history of ever managing shareholders separately.
Insurance penetration continues to grow. ROE is mind boggling.
Speaker 16 Vidya Bala @bala_vidya
@primeinvestorin
Mill Liners are critical components for mining. Not too many suppliers globally.
Gold 42%, copper 33% contribute to the mill lining industry.
Company is Tega Industries. IPO in Dec 2021.
- DII holding is now 7.5%
- 2nd largest globally in polymer based mill liner industry. Overall in mill liner space it's 5th largest (top 5 have 60% market share).
- 3 plants in India and others in Chile, South Africa and Australia via acquisitions.
- Positives
• Less project to mining industry capex cycles
• Breakthrough product
• Global footprint and capacity additions
• Less prone to capex cycles as it's a consumable
• Steady prospects for end user industries - copper, gold etc for EV, batteries etc
• Decline in ore grades a positive.
• DynaPrime is a breakthrough product made of steel and rubber and is a leader product. Hugely successful and expected to give 25% growth and 35% more realisations.
There may be significant investments in Chile. Debt is just 0.25 so scope to borrow and invest is there
Risks:
- Product concentration
- Emerging nations
- Erractic turnover in business
Speaker 17 Kumar Saurabh @suru27
Sudarshan Chemicals
"history never repeats but often rhymes"
(Disclaimer)
- Pigments space. Pigments are colorants
- We like companies going through a pain period.
- In India they have 35% market share. Globally has become 3rd biggest from being 18th biggest. Is the current situation a structural or cyclical situation?
Risks
- Demand side
- Supply side
- Most risks are already playing
Speaker 18 Sandeep Daga @sandeep
Fino Payments Bank
- Next growth in banking would come from Bharat.
- New age co, got bunched with other fintech
- Started to offer services that icici would otherwise not offer.
- Only 20% ATMs in rural India where 65% population resides
- Nearly 40-45% households don't have access to banks / ATMs
- Fino converts merchant store to banking outlet.
- Very efficient, tech led operations.
- Payments Bank are not allowed to lend so they can put money in Gsecs and make a 300-350bps spread
- Experienced top management
Risks
- Drastic reduction in legacy products due to switch towards UPI
- Expansion by other payment banks can impact margins
- Failure to cross sell may limit profitability
Speaker 19 Sivaramakrishnan R
It takes 10-15 years of hard work and when the moat blossoms, the ROCE blasts. Take Intel for example in the b2b space. The moat it has made. Think of any b2b co in India with a similar moat?
- Those who don't want to buy from Russia, China have to buy either from Germany, US or India.
Company is Data Patterns
- 2.5x order book
- Chennai based co
- Make in India opportunity
- Market opportunity for one of the products is 10-100x the company's turnover
Speaker 20 GR Balaji @balajispice
- Strong ownership structure
- Profitable biz model with good industry structure
- Growing total addressable market
- Risks
Framework of finding this stock:
- Benchmark setter and execution machine.
- Stability Provider (all weather stock)
- In 2002, entire yearly profit was converted in 2007 to quarterly profit.
- This stock has compounded 21-22% on a 10 year basis and it's done better than market every year
The company is HDFC Bank
- Not even a 30 year old company
- Granular deposits, customer engagement and cross selling, risk management and well capitalised
Is management thinking long term?
Revenue drivers?
- Healthy credit growth (12-13% system levels Nd HDFC grows 4-5% above system)
- Gold loan offering
- Expanding wealth management
- 70% HDFC Ltd customers don't bank with HDFC Bank
Margin drivers
- Mix improvements (Retail:Wholesale mix improving)
- Higher fee income in wealth management and gold loan
- Opex cost is high now but should normalise
Risks
- Operating costs
- Ability to build superior deposit base?
- Merger related regulatory issues
Closing remarks Shyam Sekhar @shyamsek
- Investing isn't just about finding ideas but rightly valued ideas. You may buy Infosys at peak and still feel you've not gone anywhere
- What makes us think that just knowing great ideas is enough?
Just directly starting into equity investing isn't a great idea. 2020 and 2021 was like playing 20-20.
2022 is like ODIs where you need to play and stay longer.
Sure the ideas are great but learn to pace them correctly.
Sharpen your decision making skills. First is what stock to buy. Second is what level to buy.
Culturally we are not used to this as we want to move the score board ahead right now.
Funnel your ideas and create a focused universe.
The ideas from today should help you think for yourself.
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