This thread, despite being written in the sneering, dismissive tone typical of Breakthrough Institute people, does provide some interesting additional information about how coal is used in China.
But ultimately, it misses the forest for the trees.
But ultimately, it misses the forest for the trees.
Yes, much coal in China is used for industrial processes. But power is by far the biggest use. There is HUGE room to decrease the use of coal for power in China.
The razor-thin profit margins of Chinese heavy industry that can't live without cheap coal is EXACTLY the kind of inefficient malinvestment that I talked about as being an important driver of China's overuse of coal.
The idea that Chinese industry, unlike industry in any other country, is uniquely unable to survive without coal power -- that what would be a "diet" elsehwere would be "heart surgery" for China -- implies much of China's industrial production is waste.
Seaver agrees that the hypothetical bargains I describe as unrealistic are unrealistic, but somehow is still offended that I even mentioned such unrealistic things, even to note that they are unrealistic.
As a postscript, it would probably help the Breakthrough Institute to have more than their current ~0 degree of influence if they could kick their habit of affecting the demeanor of a performatively outraged 10-year-old.
In any case, my points in the post all stand; describing the inefficient setup of China's wasteful heavy industry does not change the existential nature of the problem.
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noahpinion.substack.com
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noahpinion.substack.com
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