🧵This piece by @DavidAFrench vastly overstates American interests in the Ukraine without seriously tackling the biggest issue regarding U.S. support for Ukraine:
It is simply unsustainable. We're running out of munitions to send Ukraine and trading off against other priorities.
It is simply unsustainable. We're running out of munitions to send Ukraine and trading off against other priorities.
In his op-ed David links to data showing overall U.S. industrial output is more than Russia's and implies this gives us the ability to support Ukraine for the long-haul.
This is misleading and distracts from the real issue: The U.S. DEFENSE industrial base is heavily constrained
This is misleading and distracts from the real issue: The U.S. DEFENSE industrial base is heavily constrained
For example, Ukraine is currently firing about 90k a artillery shells a month. The U.S. can only produce about 15-30k a month. It will take at least 2 years to get to 90k a month. So what happens in the interim? This is a problem that can't solved waxing poetically about WW2.
Its a similar situation for more advanced weapon systems - including ones desperately needs by partners in East Asia. @austinjdahmer lays out effectively below the trade offs we are making against priorities in Asia with our of support for Ukraine:
This isn't like World War 2 where you can turn a typewriter factory into a 1911 factory or ammo manufacturer. Modern U.S. weapon systems are complex with long supply chains. It will take time and immense resources to stand up more capacity in the defense industrial base.
One question I have for so-called free market conservatives like @DavidAFrench and others who support unfettered support for Ukraine is:
Do you support government intervention (i.e. Defense Production Act) to force U.S. manufacturers to produce more munitions for Ukraine?
Do you support government intervention (i.e. Defense Production Act) to force U.S. manufacturers to produce more munitions for Ukraine?
Of course this would have consequences for the U.S. economy as a whole. It would further supply chain disruptions and increase inflation while likely accelerating opposition to Ukraine aid. It also likely wouldn't have a significant immediate impact on U.S. munitions production.
I would have more respect for Ukraine War hawks if they seriously addressed this issue or admitted they support the U.S. government intervening more in the economy in an attempt to support Ukraine more. Or that they are fine with European welfare states free-riding off U.S. taxpa
There are also the escalatory risks that come with increased support for Ukraine that @DavidAFrench largely glosses over.
Russia does not pose the same threat to the U.S. (or the rest of Europe) that the USSR did. It is not worth risking nuclear war over the Donbas.
Russia does not pose the same threat to the U.S. (or the rest of Europe) that the USSR did. It is not worth risking nuclear war over the Donbas.
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