One thing is clear.
Like Mariupol before it, and Soledar, and all the other towns Russia has taken, Artemovsk (Bakhmut) is never going back to Ukraine once Russia takes it, whenever that is. Because nobody gives back something that has been won with so much difficulty. (1/16)
Like Mariupol before it, and Soledar, and all the other towns Russia has taken, Artemovsk (Bakhmut) is never going back to Ukraine once Russia takes it, whenever that is. Because nobody gives back something that has been won with so much difficulty. (1/16)
And that means, in the context of Ukraine's maximalist position, that no peace is possible in the current context where Ukraine rejects any deal that involves loss of territory. Given Russia's economic resilience, that means this war will last a long time. (2/16)
The question, though, is how long Europe can last in this situation. Europe was getting a large percentage of its gas and oil from Russia. The gas has stopped. They are buying Russian oil from Indian private refiners at high prices. (3/16)
Heavy industry in Europe has largely shut down. Metallurgical, glass, and chemical companies have idled their plants because they are no longer getting cheap Russian gas at €15/MWh. Even €50/MWh, the current spot gas price, is too high. (4/16)
And if they restart those idled plants, then gas prices in Europe will rise again in response to the increased demand. That will make gas unaffordable again. Essentially, Europe has de-industrialized. This is the price they have paid for their support for Ukraine. (5/16)
Residential customers of gas got extremely lucky the past winter. Industrial demand had plummeted because of the idled plants, and the winter was extremely mild, with temperatures almost 10 degrees Fahrenheit above normal. This prevented them from freezing. (6/16)
Germany is now entirely dependent on stored gas. They are frantically building floating LNG terminals, but those take time. They have built one at Wilhelmshaven, and are building another at Brunsbuttel. But these will only total to 20% of Germany's normal gas needs. (7/16)
The bigger problem for German industry is that this gas is too expensive. The profitability of German industry was predicated on cheap Russian pipeline gas, not on expensive imported LNG. German industry will not use this expensive gas. (8/16)
So Germany can build enough LNG terminals to heat homes in Germany for the coming winter, but its industry is finished. Germany's days as a manufacturing superpower are over. And that means that soon, it cannot pay for that LNG which it is importing from the US. (9/16)
Unless, of course, it surrenders even more sovereignty to the US, allows American companies to completely takeover all of Germany. German companies, enticed by the Inflation Reduction Act, will move to the US, and some to China. (10/16)
This process will be repeated in every European country. Shutdown of national industry due to expensive energy, dependence on US for energy, takeover of the country by the US in exchange for gas, transfer of all intellectual property to American companies. (11/16)
But Russia, because it is a resource-rich, self-sufficient country, will not be affected. The IMF has itself said that in 2023 and 2024, Russia's economy will grow well. This is because Russia has already directed much of its energy flows east. (12/16)
Russia will complete the transition this year, so that it will not need Europe for its export needs by 2024. In fact, even if Europe wants Russian energy after 2023, it is unlikely that Russia will have any to spare for Europe. (13/16)
The result of Europe's sanctions on Russia will mean its enslavement at the hands of the US. America will achieve its dream of an empire. All European armies will be under the command of American generals, reporting to the US President. (14/16)
But the conquest of Europe does not give the US control of significant natural resources, because Europe is a resource-poor continent. With America in control from Alaska to Poland, there will be a new Cold War. (15/16)
But in a Cold War, the side that is economically stronger will win. The US is an empire built on paper. Russia and China are powered by natural resources, which everyone needs. And so, the US will lose this Cold War, with tragic consequences for the people of the West. (16/16)
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