Manchester United vs Barcelona. Erik ten Hag vs Xavi Hernández. Titan vs Titan.
In round 2, a Champions League quality tie is guaranteed.
The game starts and ends with United's ability to cause disruption, and Barca's ability to prevent that with technical quality.
THREAD!
In round 2, a Champions League quality tie is guaranteed.
The game starts and ends with United's ability to cause disruption, and Barca's ability to prevent that with technical quality.
THREAD!
Can Barca really control Manchester United at Old Trafford through technical dominance? I'm unsure. It was possible with Pedri, Busquets, Gavi and de Jong, but without just one of them (Pedri, in this instance) the team becomes a lot different.
The alternative is Kessié/Roberto.
The alternative is Kessié/Roberto.
Both are good players in their own right but they don't match the press resistance, pass volume, and general quality of Busquets; Pedri-de Jong.
Take Pedri out and put Kessié/Roberto into the mix and that will likely result in the overall pass volume and quality reducing.
Take Pedri out and put Kessié/Roberto into the mix and that will likely result in the overall pass volume and quality reducing.
That's only considering the first and the second phase, by the way.
Pedri is so useful because of his Iniesta-esque quality between the lines, where Kessié/Roberto's biggest quality offensively is their dynamism out of possession with runs in behind - that ain't what Barca need.
Pedri is so useful because of his Iniesta-esque quality between the lines, where Kessié/Roberto's biggest quality offensively is their dynamism out of possession with runs in behind - that ain't what Barca need.
I wouldn't rule out Barca's XI averaging 65% of the ball and dominating possession the way City and Arsenal did at Old Trafford, but even those teams who did a great job of controlling United still lost because of United's sensational ability in transition (Rashford + Bruno).
However, Barca will not have their XI, & that's a big issue because the game will likely become transition-based.
Even though United's press can be passed around due to the fact that their wingers have to cover the outside centre backs and fullbacks, Barca's technique is subpar.
Even though United's press can be passed around due to the fact that their wingers have to cover the outside centre backs and fullbacks, Barca's technique is subpar.
We saw the consequence of that at the Nou Camp, so imagine what it will be like at Old Trafford.
This isn't to say ten Hag's pressing structure is bad, by the way. It's flawed, but it's still pretty damn good, and part of me thinks he purposefully makes the fullbacks stay deep.
This isn't to say ten Hag's pressing structure is bad, by the way. It's flawed, but it's still pretty damn good, and part of me thinks he purposefully makes the fullbacks stay deep.
The fullbacks are typically the ones who back up the inverted wide player in the press where they both cover the ball-side centre back and ball-side fullback respectively, but to press that aggressively requires dominance of the ball when retrieved.
Let me explain.
Let me explain.
Liverpool pressed in a narrow 4-3-3, somewhat similar to ten Hag's 4-4-1-1 pressing shape, and the fullbacks flew high to press the opposition fullbacks when Salah or Mané inverted to press the centre backs.
However, in recent times, that press was "found out".
However, in recent times, that press was "found out".
The structure of the press itself wasn't the issue, but the fact that Liverpool weren't technically secure or combative in duels the way they previously were was the biggest issue.
United have both issues currently, particularly on the technical side - they're turnover heavy.
United have both issues currently, particularly on the technical side - they're turnover heavy.
However, with that turnover heavy style creates lots of transitions and chaos against most teams, and there's few better teams than United in transition due to the quality of a certain Marcus Rashford.
This is likely why ten Hag doesn't let the fullbacks bomb on to press a lot.
This is likely why ten Hag doesn't let the fullbacks bomb on to press a lot.
It's not the end of the world for United if the opposition bypass their press because they can sit back, defend deep, and use Rashford's quality on the counter.
The alternative of pressing high with relentless aggression would expose their own last line more often.
The alternative of pressing high with relentless aggression would expose their own last line more often.
So, United currently press to an okay but flawed standard because of the fact that technically proficient goalkeepers can chip the ball out to the fullbacks or play simple passes into the centre backs (depending on which player the inverted forward is not marking out of the two).
However, although it's flawed, it's still relatively effective because of the fact that the wide forwards invert to pressurise the centre backs & often curve their pressing action to block the passing lane to the free fullback. It *can* be passed around, but it's still aggressive
We saw the worst of it when City beat United 6-3 (it was 6-1 at one point) at the Etihad, and we saw the best of it when United pressed to a top standard at Camp Nou.
All top technical teams can play through it despite the flaw in the press, and Barca will likely not be that.
All top technical teams can play through it despite the flaw in the press, and Barca will likely not be that.
Lots of their XI will consist of special technicians because I *HIGHLY* doubt Xavi will pick Alonso at centre back again, so maybe a technically proficient base of ter Stegen; Araujo, Koundé, Christensen, Baldé; Busquets, de Jong & Gavi in the #10 could mitigate previous issues.
I anticipate that Barca will be a lot better, but even if they control the build-up, will they have a big threat in the final third?
They will be quite reliant on Gavi coming inside to knit play together between the lines, but will they sustain enough pressure to be effective?
They will be quite reliant on Gavi coming inside to knit play together between the lines, but will they sustain enough pressure to be effective?
The alternative to Gavi out wide consists of an XI with two out and out wingers (Ferran, Fati, Raphinha, and Dembélé), and that in itself would likely result in the game being transition-based for Barca when considering how many direct players they have on the pitch.
It may be a better solution, though, when considering that the game could be transition-based. If Gavi is starting wide left in the front 3 then Barca's transitional threats will almost solely consist of Raphinha or Dembélé (if fit) on the right wing.
That's not enough.
That's not enough.
If Xavi starts two wingers, then Barca start to match United's transitional qualities and that end-to-end theme would suit them more as they largely have the technical quality to play under pressure + exploit United in transition because they have runners in behind.
If they can do that then they can take some of United's confidence away in the press because they're wary of getting caught in behind so naturally become more conservative & drop a little deeper, & here is where Barca can sustain attacks & create overloads vs United's back four.
Although the problem with that end-to-end theme from Barca's perspective is the fact that they run the risk of United's elite transitional qualities getting the better of them.
Barca may have some top quality forwards, but none are quite as special as Mr. Rashford in transition.
Barca may have some top quality forwards, but none are quite as special as Mr. Rashford in transition.
The game almost entirely boils down to what the first leg came down to, though, and that's control vs disruption. United need to disrupt Barca, and Barca want to control United with the ball.
However, Xavi may accept that latter isn't possible, & go toe-to-toe with two wingers.
However, Xavi may accept that latter isn't possible, & go toe-to-toe with two wingers.
Wow, okay, so the toe-to-toe approach seems an inevitable one now.
What that means is that we’re in for one hell of a game tomorrow night… 🧵
What that means is that we’re in for one hell of a game tomorrow night… 🧵
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