United and Newcastle are very similar.
Both teams primarily go long from goal kicks, both press high with aggression with the wingers tasked with pressing the centre backs & fullbacks, both excel in duels, have excellent outlets & top positional play in settled attacks.
THREAD!
Both teams primarily go long from goal kicks, both press high with aggression with the wingers tasked with pressing the centre backs & fullbacks, both excel in duels, have excellent outlets & top positional play in settled attacks.
THREAD!
Each team also have decent technical quality as a whole and try to keep the ball when they get it. However, if the opposition retrieve settled possession, both sides have no problem dropping into a low block.
Newcastle do this more often due to slightly worse player quality.
Newcastle do this more often due to slightly worse player quality.
Newcastle’s 4-5-1 low block is excellent, though. They command the penalty box superbly (although maybe less so with Karius), work relentlessly in that shape, and have outlets to get out and counter.
United don’t spend as much time deep but when they do they do an okay job.
United don’t spend as much time deep but when they do they do an okay job.
They can be exploited out wide due to the fact that they defend in a narrow back 4 with wingers who aren’t the best at tracking back to help, but they have excellent 1v1 defenders on the sides + Varane & Martinez defend the box valiantly.
I expect the game to be chaotic, though.
I expect the game to be chaotic, though.
Both United and Newcastle press high to a good standard, but they do leave one of the fullbacks or centre backs on each side free due to the fact that the wide players have to mark/press both the centre back and fullback on their respective side.
They make it work, though.
They make it work, though.
Almiron, for example, is a monster in the press who curves his runs to block the passing lane into the fullback before pressing aggressively against the ball-side centre back. Antony is similar for United.
The build-up have an overload but it’s hard to play through.
The build-up have an overload but it’s hard to play through.
Both Newcastle and United (more so United) will try to play through the oppositions press on occasion, but they’ll also go long into midfield because they trust their physicality and transitional qualities more so than their technical level under pressure.
Newcastle almost exclusively go long because of how insanely tall, mobile and intense they are to win duels whilst possessing to poutlets and good technical quality to retrieve possession and find those outlets or sustain attacks.
United are similar, but are more technical.
United are similar, but are more technical.
Varane and Martinez will split either side of De Gea to play out from the back where possible but it’s a big risk considering De Gea’s often subpar technical quality in tandem with the fact that Newcastle press so aggressively and so compactly from opposition goal kicks.
It’s something that United will need to do, though, to gain an edge in the game.
If they consistently go long into midfield they play into the primary strengths of Newcastle, so ten Hag would prefer his team to build play and A) exploit the press or B) sustain an attack.
If they consistently go long into midfield they play into the primary strengths of Newcastle, so ten Hag would prefer his team to build play and A) exploit the press or B) sustain an attack.
The fact that United are mixed from a technical and stylistic perspective means the game will almost certainly be end-to-end.
Newcastle’s style will encourage lots of duels, and United’s style does too despite them trying to exert more technical control than Newcastle will.
Newcastle’s style will encourage lots of duels, and United’s style does too despite them trying to exert more technical control than Newcastle will.
But the problem United have is that their technical security isn’t elite.
They do have some elite players under a high press like Lisandro and Luke Shaw, but De Gea, Varane, and Fred, for example, can be slightly less confident & secure in their actions. That causes uncertainty.
They do have some elite players under a high press like Lisandro and Luke Shaw, but De Gea, Varane, and Fred, for example, can be slightly less confident & secure in their actions. That causes uncertainty.
However, United have played this way all season and have done so to fantastic success, and that’s because despite their technical limitations in the build-up, they have no problem going long to battle for duels or playing on the counter because of how crazy good Rashford is.
One transition is all he needs, and one moment of space is all Bruno Fernandes needs to find him. That’s the quality this United team possess.
The potential inclusion of someone like Antony could massively help United, too. His technical security is elite like Shaw and Lisandro.
The potential inclusion of someone like Antony could massively help United, too. His technical security is elite like Shaw and Lisandro.
The more United keep the ball, the more they can pin Newcastle back and use their elite settled attacking structure to create overloads against their back four and counterpress high once attacks break down, like we saw against Barca mid-week with Antony’s game winner.
However, despite United’s qualities, Newcastle also thrive in transitional games. In fact, they excel in each phase of play. They attack in a 3-2-5 with Burn inverted into the back 3 and Trippier high so have top positional play + can counterpress high after sustaining pressure.
They’re also ultra physical and constantly play to that strength by going long from goal kicks with regularity. They will absolutely cause United problems in this game because of that in tandem with their other qualities. Newcastle do a bit of everything. They’ll show that today.
After a successful duel win, they can sustain attacks and counterpress high or they can be direct and use their outlets. If they lose the duel, they can press high or drop into a low block, and they do both of these things to a top standard whilst having top, top quality outlets.
They also have a guy like Guimareas in midfield who can change the flow for them in key moments, whether that be by being secure to sustain attacks or release a player in transition.
This is not an easy game for United. They have to be on their A game today - no doubts there!
This is not an easy game for United. They have to be on their A game today - no doubts there!
However, despite that, ten Hag’s men do have minor advantages. They are better technically, can compete physically, have slightly better outlets than Newcastle, and have superior quality when sustaining pressure. It essentially pips the game in their favour likelihood-wise.
However, football isn’t played on paper, and Newcastle are a Champions League quality team. They will make today ultra-competitive and if United aren’t on their A game, Newcastle will punish them.
They are a truly special side with Guimareas involved, and he will be today.
They are a truly special side with Guimareas involved, and he will be today.
All in all, you can expect chaos - lots of duels, lots of transitions, and lots of pressing. The onus is on United to make the game less chaotic so they can control proceedings with the ball, but Newcastle want mayhem.
Chaos is guaranteed, but how each team manages it is key 🧵
Chaos is guaranteed, but how each team manages it is key 🧵
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