1/ I was gonna write one of those long threads to summarize my @NoemaMag piece on the cost of deglobalization
But @michaelxpettis already wrote a good one w/ some interesting counter pts of his own
So trying something new:
A 𧡠to his π§΅on points I find discussion-worthyπ
But @michaelxpettis already wrote a good one w/ some interesting counter pts of his own
So trying something new:
A 𧡠to his π§΅on points I find discussion-worthyπ
2/ Glad he called out "people cost" and some parts of "regulatory cost" (eg lack of highspeed rail infrastructure)
The most insidious one is "knowledge cost"
In hindsight, I made a writing mistake by discussing knowledge cost last -- buried the lede!
The most insidious one is "knowledge cost"
In hindsight, I made a writing mistake by discussing knowledge cost last -- buried the lede!
3/ Knowledge cost is most insidious b/c there's no policy shortcut
TSMC is paying US wages for less-skilled workers than Taiwan, still can't find enough, and sending them all to Taiwan for 1-1.5 yrs of training
This brain drain is systemic across many US manufacturing sectors
TSMC is paying US wages for less-skilled workers than Taiwan, still can't find enough, and sending them all to Taiwan for 1-1.5 yrs of training
This brain drain is systemic across many US manufacturing sectors
4/ Not sure if TW has a policy to suppress wages. Also not sure if TW is big enough to suppress global demand
But it's an interesting point.
If you *can* suppress wage w/o pissing off your citizenry, maybe that's a new spin on competitive advantage?
But it's an interesting point.
If you *can* suppress wage w/o pissing off your citizenry, maybe that's a new spin on competitive advantage?
5/ Nuanced point, tho I slightly disagree w/ the conclusion
Is a govt's ability to allocate/coordinate subsidies not a "competitive advantage", fueling its industries to also be more competitive?
California highspeed rail debacle as a negative example
Is a govt's ability to allocate/coordinate subsidies not a "competitive advantage", fueling its industries to also be more competitive?
California highspeed rail debacle as a negative example
6/ VERY interesting point here
High wages drive productivity via tech or offshoring, oftentimes both depending on which one is easier to execute
It's ironically unfolding in China, where wage rises are driving advanced robotics & move to Vietnam, India
High wages drive productivity via tech or offshoring, oftentimes both depending on which one is easier to execute
It's ironically unfolding in China, where wage rises are driving advanced robotics & move to Vietnam, India
7/ Not sure if Taiwan's excellence in semis manufacturing can be reduced to just the effects of trade surpluses
I highly encourage folks to read Morris Chang's (long) speech in Apr 2021. Highspeed rail was one advantage; others were better human capital
I highly encourage folks to read Morris Chang's (long) speech in Apr 2021. Highspeed rail was one advantage; others were better human capital
8/ Navigating the uncharted water of deglobalization is hard, so any constructive, respectful disagreements and discussions are good
Read my @NoemaMag piece π. Read @michaelxpettis 's thread.
And let's figure out this messy world together. /END
noemamag.com
Read my @NoemaMag piece π. Read @michaelxpettis 's thread.
And let's figure out this messy world together. /END
noemamag.com
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