Sean Dyche's Everton got the better of Arteta & Arsenal previously, but the likelihood of that occurring at the Emirates is far less, particularly with Calvert-Lewin unavailable.
A mini miracle will have to occur for the outcome to be anything other than an Arsenal win.
THREAD.
A mini miracle will have to occur for the outcome to be anything other than an Arsenal win.
THREAD.
With Calvert-Lewin likely unavailable combined with the change in venue, Arsenal vs Everton should be a totally different theme to their previous fixture. Everton quite simply don't possess an outlet in the same vein as DCL meaning Saliba and Gabriel will have a much easier game.
This means that the likelihood of Everton 'getting out' is much less than it was at Goodison.
Pickford punted every long goal kick towards Calvert-Lewin because of his aerial prowess and Everton consistently 'got out' by hooking the ball in his direction & he often collected it.
Pickford punted every long goal kick towards Calvert-Lewin because of his aerial prowess and Everton consistently 'got out' by hooking the ball in his direction & he often collected it.
With that no longer being a strong likelihood in the game, Arsenal will be able to sustain pressure with much more ease, without or without Thomas Partey.
Then, as a result of that, Arsenal still have a clear 5v4 overload in the last line of defence except can use it more often.
Then, as a result of that, Arsenal still have a clear 5v4 overload in the last line of defence except can use it more often.
Arsenal did a bad job in the last game of regularly sustaining pressure due to the fact that Calvert-Lewin consistently enabled Everton to get out, but when they did they regularly isolated Saka & Martinelli in 1v1 situations against Everton's fullbacks, yet they had 'off-games'.
On another day, Saka and Martinelli utilise such situations of qualitative superiority but at Goodison they failed to.
Will that occur at the Emirates when Arsenal will almost certainly sustain a lot more reliable and consistent pressure? Logic suggests not.
Will that occur at the Emirates when Arsenal will almost certainly sustain a lot more reliable and consistent pressure? Logic suggests not.
McNeil/Iwobi worked unimaginably hard to double up against Saka/Martinelli in the reverse fixture but this only worked with *some* reliability because Arsenal failed to sustain pressure.
An overload in an overload, at the end of the day - hard work can't always make up for it..
An overload in an overload, at the end of the day - hard work can't always make up for it..
It's easier for hard work when tracking back to make such a difference when the general flow of the game is in Everton's favour in the sense that they caused reliable disruption, but, as I said, the likelihood of that occurring without Calvert-Lewin is much, much lower.
Another facet of Everton's game that is less likely to cause Arsenal issues is their central 4-5-1 mid-block.
As we all know Arteta likes Zinchenko to invert into midfield to create a 3-2 build-up shape, but Dyche packed central areas to prevent Arsenal from creating overloads.
As we all know Arteta likes Zinchenko to invert into midfield to create a 3-2 build-up shape, but Dyche packed central areas to prevent Arsenal from creating overloads.
This plan worked because Everton are a very physical team in midfield and they got close to and disrupted Arsenal in midfield areas, but Saliba and Gabriel had a 2v1 situation vs Everton's #9 in settled play, but they were subpar technically in the game along with the midfield.
As Everton are a physical team, that can happen, but will it reliably occur at the Emirates on a bigger pitch and in a different atmosphere? Or will Arsenal, an elite technical team, fail to use their technical quality in defence and midfield to evade Everton's physical pressure?
Again, both likelihoods lean themselves towards Arsenal gaining the edge in those areas, even though Everton will of course have moments of success because of their physicality where they will be combative from Ramsdale & Pickford's long goal kicks. They're also okay technically.
That means they can recycle off the back of a duel win and sustain some pressure of their own, but despite that they badly lack a transitional threat and general goalscoring qualities without Calvert-Lewin in the team.
The likelihood of Everton accumulating even 1 xG is low.
The likelihood of Everton accumulating even 1 xG is low.
As for Arsenal, the likelihood of them accumulating at the very least nearly 2 xG is quite high, and that's because the theme of the game will largely resemble them sustaining pressure, and even in those midfield duel situations they have transitional threats to exploit Everton.
Not only that, but Everton aren't just going to defend a low block all game. They will for large periods, particularly when considering Arsenal have an overload in the build-up combined with the fact that Calvert-Lewin is unavailable, but they'll press high from goal kicks.
This is what differentiates Dyche from the typical 'defensive' coach, and it's why he's so successful, and although Everton press superbly from opposition goal kicks, the likelihood of them even creating many situations where Arsenal have a goal kick is low.
In those situations, though, it's big mental shift from Everton to go from defending deep for the majority of the match to shifting that plan from a physical and mental perspective to being aggressive and pressing high when they've previously been passive all game.
Their press will be more prevalent and successful early on, but Arsenal have the quality to build through the phases and exploit their potentially 'mixed' press as the game goes on and some of the Everton players commit, whereas other don't.
All in all, it's clear what's likely, and that's an Arsenal win. In fact, I would argue that anything other than an Arsenal win would be one of the biggest upsets in the Premier League this season.
They have undeniable qualitative, tactical, and psychological advantages.
They have undeniable qualitative, tactical, and psychological advantages.
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