$BTC suffered a massive red candle last night!
Should we be panicking? Is the echo bubble over?
Here's a quick breakdown of why I remain bullish:
(+ my favourite alts to buy in this downturn)
Should we be panicking? Is the echo bubble over?
Here's a quick breakdown of why I remain bullish:
(+ my favourite alts to buy in this downturn)
What Will Be Covered?
1. Macro Analysis
2. Institutional Collapse
3. Leverage Washout
4. Fear And FUD
5. $BTC Analysis
6. The Best Altcoins To BTFD
1. Macro Analysis
2. Institutional Collapse
3. Leverage Washout
4. Fear And FUD
5. $BTC Analysis
6. The Best Altcoins To BTFD
Macro Analysis (Nasdaq)
If we look at Nasdaq, the tech stock index, we can see a possible Wyckoff Accumulation pattern happening.
As $BTC is still somewhat correlated to stocks, this could also mean bullish action for crypto if the pattern plays out.
If we look at Nasdaq, the tech stock index, we can see a possible Wyckoff Accumulation pattern happening.
As $BTC is still somewhat correlated to stocks, this could also mean bullish action for crypto if the pattern plays out.
Macro Analysis (US Dollar)
As crypto is priced against USD, the strength of DXY is something that is worth looking at.
DXY has tried to break past the $105 dollar resistance zone recently as well as on 6 Jan, but has failed to do so.
Stochs are also overbought for a while now.
As crypto is priced against USD, the strength of DXY is something that is worth looking at.
DXY has tried to break past the $105 dollar resistance zone recently as well as on 6 Jan, but has failed to do so.
Stochs are also overbought for a while now.
Macro Analysis (Treasury Yields)
Treasury yields are finally correcting after a few days of rallying.
The higher yields go, the more disincentivised investors are to risk their money on risky assets.
However, do note that the treasury yields are still very bullish overall.
Treasury yields are finally correcting after a few days of rallying.
The higher yields go, the more disincentivised investors are to risk their money on risky assets.
However, do note that the treasury yields are still very bullish overall.
Macro Analysis (Overall)
The price action on tech and DXY is making me more bullish.
For treasury yields to stop rallying, feds would need to loosen up more.
The next CPI print will be critical to prove that current hikes are sufficient to clamp down inflation.
The price action on tech and DXY is making me more bullish.
For treasury yields to stop rallying, feds would need to loosen up more.
The next CPI print will be critical to prove that current hikes are sufficient to clamp down inflation.
Institutional Collapse
Silvergate is highkey NGMI, there is good chance they will go under due to insolvency.
This has possibly led to capitulation and hence my next point, a leverage washout.
Silvergate is highkey NGMI, there is good chance they will go under due to insolvency.
This has possibly led to capitulation and hence my next point, a leverage washout.
Leverage Washout
We saw over $210M in longs being liquidated, very similar to what happened on 9th Feb.
After the longs were flushed out, $BTC managed to rally over 16%.
The same thing could happen again.
We saw over $210M in longs being liquidated, very similar to what happened on 9th Feb.
After the longs were flushed out, $BTC managed to rally over 16%.
The same thing could happen again.
Fear And FUD #1
With the fall of Silvergate, we are seeing speculation on the effects on $USDC, connections to $USDT and other cryptocurrencies.
We seen this happen with FTX and Genesis, people kept saying it would go lower because of unforeseen contagion.
With the fall of Silvergate, we are seeing speculation on the effects on $USDC, connections to $USDT and other cryptocurrencies.
We seen this happen with FTX and Genesis, people kept saying it would go lower because of unforeseen contagion.
Fear And FUD #2
$BTC then went from $15K to $25K.
Max fear has generally led to market bottoms.
The expert @Crypto_Joe10 explains this well:
$BTC then went from $15K to $25K.
Max fear has generally led to market bottoms.
The expert @Crypto_Joe10 explains this well:
Fear And FUD #3
We are also seeing Mt Gox FUD, Shanghai unlock FUD and so on.
Mt Gox has not confirmed any $BTC release dates yet and they are known for delaying.
We are also seeing Mt Gox FUD, Shanghai unlock FUD and so on.
Mt Gox has not confirmed any $BTC release dates yet and they are known for delaying.
Fear And FUD #4
Regarding Shanghai, I remain bullish on it.
Besides the typical sell the news which I expect to be short-lived, I cannot see why stakers who staked at a time where unlocks were uncertain, would sell right now.
Check out @LouisCooper_'s bull case for Shanghai:
Regarding Shanghai, I remain bullish on it.
Besides the typical sell the news which I expect to be short-lived, I cannot see why stakers who staked at a time where unlocks were uncertain, would sell right now.
Check out @LouisCooper_'s bull case for Shanghai:
$BTC Analysis
Back to the main player, $BTC.
I see two likely scenarios as shown below for now.
Bouncing off its current level would be the best case scenario, as it would be an obvious case of higher lows.
My plan would be to start DCAing from now and more if it falls lower.
Back to the main player, $BTC.
I see two likely scenarios as shown below for now.
Bouncing off its current level would be the best case scenario, as it would be an obvious case of higher lows.
My plan would be to start DCAing from now and more if it falls lower.
The Best Altcoins To BTFD
These are the alts that I would buy the blood if I were not already all-in.
$PSI
$GRAIL
$LVL
Read on to see the reasons why!
These are the alts that I would buy the blood if I were not already all-in.
$PSI
$GRAIL
$LVL
Read on to see the reasons why!
$PSI @TridentDAO
Innovative Risk-To-Earn (R2E) model, where the player has something to lose.
In popular games like League and Counterstrike, people are essentially wagering their ranking points whenever they play.
The R2E model incentivises serious and sustainable gameplay.
Innovative Risk-To-Earn (R2E) model, where the player has something to lose.
In popular games like League and Counterstrike, people are essentially wagering their ranking points whenever they play.
The R2E model incentivises serious and sustainable gameplay.
$GRAIL @CamelotDEX
They have recently announced new mechanics for $xGRAIL, where stakers would have an allocation reserved for them for launches.
There are also many other factors for why I am bullish, might make a full thread on it 👀
They have recently announced new mechanics for $xGRAIL, where stakers would have an allocation reserved for them for launches.
There are also many other factors for why I am bullish, might make a full thread on it 👀
$LVL @Level__Finance
Their fees are ranked second among derivatives DEXes on @DefiLlama, only losing to $GMX.
BSC activity is also picking up now, so betting on their best DEX could be a great trade.
Their fees are ranked second among derivatives DEXes on @DefiLlama, only losing to $GMX.
BSC activity is also picking up now, so betting on their best DEX could be a great trade.
Conclusion
Bullish structure for $BTC is not broken yet, in my opinion there is no need to panic now.
My take is that this could be a great opportunity.
Bullish structure for $BTC is not broken yet, in my opinion there is no need to panic now.
My take is that this could be a great opportunity.
I hope that I have helped you all out with my thinking process.
My goal is to provide quality information for free.
I've never paid for any crypto course, and I don't think you need to.
What else do you want to see? Feel free to comment down below!
My goal is to provide quality information for free.
I've never paid for any crypto course, and I don't think you need to.
What else do you want to see? Feel free to comment down below!
Check out my daily portfolio updates where I document all my trades!
Tagging @FungiAlpha chads and other chads for feedback on my bullish thesis
@LouisCooper_
@RealDegenGMX
@2lambro
@karl_0x
@rektdiomedes
@crypto_linn
@GIGACHAD_CRYPTO
@Cryptoalpharian
@cryptomemez
@CryptoShiro_
@0xFlips
@undeadcat1or0
@Crypt0_Andrew
@0xUnihax0r
@FishMarketAcad
@LouisCooper_
@RealDegenGMX
@2lambro
@karl_0x
@rektdiomedes
@crypto_linn
@GIGACHAD_CRYPTO
@Cryptoalpharian
@cryptomemez
@CryptoShiro_
@0xFlips
@undeadcat1or0
@Crypt0_Andrew
@0xUnihax0r
@FishMarketAcad
More chads to help review the bullish thesis 😜
@CryptoBlooom
@thelearningpill
@Nicknick2109
@Slappjakke
@CJCJCJCJ_
@0xTindorr
@Defi_Maestro
@arndxt_xo
@thedailydegenhq
@viktordefi
@DAdvisoor
@0xShinChannn
@crypthoem
@WinterSoldierxz
@CryptoKoryo
@monosarin
@level941
@CryptoBlooom
@thelearningpill
@Nicknick2109
@Slappjakke
@CJCJCJCJ_
@0xTindorr
@Defi_Maestro
@arndxt_xo
@thedailydegenhq
@viktordefi
@DAdvisoor
@0xShinChannn
@crypthoem
@WinterSoldierxz
@CryptoKoryo
@monosarin
@level941
Thank you for reading and I hope you've found this thread helpful!
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