The Devil's DNA
The Devil's DNA

@TheDevilsDNA

14 Tweets Mar 05, 2023
[What can #MUFC expect from #LiverpoolFC - THREAD]
Derby day! United come into this as favourites looking to cement a UCL spot while Liverpool are struggling for top 4. But form goes out the window on such days.
I'll detail Liverpool's tactics, strengths & weaknesses below.
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1. Current tactics
Klopp has tried to change his tactics this season due to personnel & form issues. But after some chopping & changing, in recent games, he's stumbled back to peak era 4-3-3 with Gakpo in the Firmino role. The tried-and-tested tactic has been helping form.
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Here are their last 4 pass maps (credit @DatoBHJ). Like peak #LFC era, Nunez & Salah attack from the wide areas when Gakpo drops deep. The fullbacks enjoy most possession, threat & creation thanks to the 2 defensive 8s covering for them on either side as DM protects back 4.
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With Bajcetic's rise & lack of any other personnel, this seems to suit most of their players, although Henderson's ability & the back 4 + DM form & consistency is up for debate. It seems like a temporary solution to paper cracks until reinforcements (esp midfield) can be made.
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2. Strengths
This is probaby Klopp's most transition-reliant Liverpool yet. In fact, the only team to have more direct attacks is #MUFC (Credit @OptaAnalyst). Their whole idea is to force transitions & use direct passes to attackers to create chances. Large overlap with us.
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As a result, their front 2 enjoy high xG & many shots. No one takes more shots than Nunez in EPL & he's 2nd for xG. Salah's output has been similar to Rashford. They will be the main threats & will provide constant penetration (mainly with off-the-ball movement) & shot-taking.
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They're no slackers when it comes to carrying threat as well. These might not be long-distance dribbles but they're quick carries at end of transitions or long balls that often lead to a goal-scoring chance. Rashford has just been more clinical than both, but they have threat.
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A large reason for papering over the defensive cracks is Alisson. He was unreal last year (BDO level IMO) & has been great this year too. His ability to sweep, save & claim prevents many shots/goals. Even after facing lot of shots & xGOT, he stands strong as #LFC's best player
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3. Weaknesses
And that leads into their biggest weakness. They are conceding big chances. They have faced the 5th highest PSxG in EPL (Credit @fbref) which is an indication of amount of high quality chances they are giving. It largely stems from possession losses & being hit
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on transition which gives the opponents very direct & free routes to goal. Alisson has prevented almost ~10 goals based on PSxG. They'd be much worse without him. They don't give away that many shots (4th best). It's just that the few they give are big chances for opponents.
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They're 2nd for most oppo take ons that lead to a goal, after Leeds (who have a similar issue). Press, steal & counter is something #MUFC enjoy. Ironically, #LFC defensive issues are very similar to ours under RR last year in terms of giving away big chances in transition.
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Summary
Expect a transition-heavy game where both teams feel their best chance is to steal, counter & create big chances for their front men. We've struggled to play out from the back since Eriksen injury. But maybe going direct at this Liverpool back 4 might be ideal today.
END
To add 1 more point. Liverpool are unique in the sense that they create from wide (fullbacks & wingers) & use central players to defend. Most teams we've faced create centrally & defending middle is key. But today lot of pressing & positional focus in wide areas might be needed.
Also to elaborate more on the weakness, whoever starts RCM (Henderson/Milner mostly) has a tough task covering for TAA & Salah already. Hitting that side, forcing them back & reducing them to long balls to Nunez could work well. Attack could be best form of defence for us today.

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