Recently turned $20k -> $220k in 7 days trading $BTC
(Then lost $30k+ by accidentally pressing market instead of limit 🗿)
I did not expect this from an experimental trading account
Don't usually share PnL but attention-grabbing to share cool stuff learned in the process👇
(Then lost $30k+ by accidentally pressing market instead of limit 🗿)
I did not expect this from an experimental trading account
Don't usually share PnL but attention-grabbing to share cool stuff learned in the process👇
Firstly:
1. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE
2. Never risk what you can't lose
3. Trading is HARD. Don't just go ape perps because you think you know what you're doing and you found this thread cool.
1. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE
2. Never risk what you can't lose
3. Trading is HARD. Don't just go ape perps because you think you know what you're doing and you found this thread cool.
Back in the day when I was starting out, I zero'd more than a few trading accounts. Decided I didn't want to mess with perps.
Now I'm largely a fundamentals-driven on-chain investor. That's where I've seen the greatest returns.
So why did I start another trading account?
Now I'm largely a fundamentals-driven on-chain investor. That's where I've seen the greatest returns.
So why did I start another trading account?
Majority of my portfolio is long term and I'm not selling until my theses play out or are invalidated.
Meanwhile, I don't want to sit on my hands. You're either getting worse or getting better. There's no staying the same. I know I suck at trading — so that's what I'll learn.
Meanwhile, I don't want to sit on my hands. You're either getting worse or getting better. There's no staying the same. I know I suck at trading — so that's what I'll learn.
I started it to learn. Picked an amount that would sting to lose, but I could be aggressive with without worrying.
And I got scientific with it. Formulate a hypothesis, analyse variables, test, analyse results, evaluate.
And I got scientific with it. Formulate a hypothesis, analyse variables, test, analyse results, evaluate.
No emotion because I was in class, sincerely trying to learn how the market behaves and create a mental model of how the variables interact.
This was the biggest unlock.
This was the biggest unlock.
Unlike previously, it wasn't:
• 'If I don't win this trade I'm fucked'
• 'I just want to make money fast'
• 'Maybe this time I'll finally make money'
• 'If I don't win this trade I'm fucked'
• 'I just want to make money fast'
• 'Maybe this time I'll finally make money'
It was literally:
• 'I hope I lose this trade so I know for sure if I'm being stupid'
• 'If I win this, it means I had the right idea, how do I repeat that?'
• 'I'm not scared of losing this trade, I'm just testing my hypothesis. If it's wrong I get to refine my system'
• 'I hope I lose this trade so I know for sure if I'm being stupid'
• 'If I win this, it means I had the right idea, how do I repeat that?'
• 'I'm not scared of losing this trade, I'm just testing my hypothesis. If it's wrong I get to refine my system'
As soon as the account hit a size that invalidated this emotionless empirical zen state, I stopped.
In terms of actual trading, I traded momentum, sentiment, and levels.
It's absolutely bonkers that discretionary trading has an edge if you're just willing to think for yourself.
All the quant stuff I have a background in feels stupid after this. @worstcontrarian explain pls
It's absolutely bonkers that discretionary trading has an edge if you're just willing to think for yourself.
All the quant stuff I have a background in feels stupid after this. @worstcontrarian explain pls
The strategy evolves day by day and is literally impossible to backtest. Incredibly different to what I'm used to. Just playing off levels as the market moves, simple averages, 'feel'. How does this even make money. Someone explain to my quant brain.
Literally booted up some EMAs that seem well respected by the market (shoutout @pierre_crypt0) and some Hull MAs to show momentum undercurrents + quick little pinescript to show momentum triggers
Also marked out ranges and obvious levels (shoutout @LomahCrypto)
And that's it
Also marked out ranges and obvious levels (shoutout @LomahCrypto)
And that's it
To be honest, indicators are arbitrary. Does it really matter if you use the 12EMA vs the 11EMA. Only useful because they provoked deeper questions:
• *why* does price respect a certain MA/line/level
• why do momentum/range strats work
• when/why does xyz strat stop working
• *why* does price respect a certain MA/line/level
• why do momentum/range strats work
• when/why does xyz strat stop working
Also having a solid grasp of macro events (which crypto seems to be governed by) and creating plans for each scenario and having people to bounce things off was incredibly helpful. Knowing when things aren/aren't a big deal, when to trade against consensus.
A big chunk of profit was from simply longing Circle fud from understanding their balance sheet and duration risk, dollar average weighted maturity, etc. Also being plugged into macro news — longing when the fed $2T backstop was announced.
These news trades/peak FUD/make or break a certain level trades where you cut the position if the market doesn't react instantly are very tight and let the leverage be cranked up quite a bit. I learned to look for those and take a punt because of the obscene R/R.
Another big lesson — Alts are incredibly scammy to trade. They're just BTC beta except you have 'MMs hunting stops' or players overreacting causing -20% when BTC is down -2% and only +10% when BTC is up 2%.
Much easier to just trade BTC on a slightly higher leverage.
Much easier to just trade BTC on a slightly higher leverage.
I feel very comfortable trading trends and going long-only or short-only. During the uptrend I didnt short the pullbacks — only bought them. In theory I could have made more money but shorting in an uptrend even if technically sound makes taking longs harder psychologically (imo)
An incredibly key lesson — the importance of waiting. Sometimes a candle would form below a highlighted level, but then price would chop above it and bait a long, only to go back under. Managing timeframes and just waiting for candles and doing nothing saved a lot of money.
Learned to TP before my target if my momentum indicators are slowing down even if nothing has been invalidated. Funny how it's so easy to stop trusting what that got you to the advantageous position in the first place. And that 'feeling' that PA is 'feels tired' is reliable.
Additionally — even trading with like $100 helps keep tabs on the market, get up close and personal with the beast, and informs decisions even for LT investments, such as entries/outlook. At the very least it's fun seeing as an investor how well you understand the market.
Good to mention that I still think mid-long-term DeFi bets are much more preferable to trading and will drive majority of my returns.
Can't sustainably run up accounts with the level of risk and carefree-ness I had with this one, and won't try to either. Just learning.
Can't sustainably run up accounts with the level of risk and carefree-ness I had with this one, and won't try to either. Just learning.
Of course, this whole situation definitely makes me think 'am I getting good at trading or did I just long during the strongest pump of the year'
To be honest man, I really don't know
Just learned a few things during the process I thought were cool, will keep learning.
To be honest man, I really don't know
Just learned a few things during the process I thought were cool, will keep learning.
To be clear, not encouraging anyone to ape perps. I'm still scared of them and dipping my toes back in the water. Segregated long term holdings that can't be touched in any circumstance. Strict with risk and trading account bankroll. Only betting what I'm comfortable losing.
Here's my GMX ref link for those who want to trade responsibly🗿
app.gmx.io
app.gmx.io
Tagging some folks who might find this interesting:
@AkadoSang @veH0rny @OuroborosCap8 @tanoeth @RunnerXBT @DigitsCapital @lazyvillager1 @crypto_linn @therobotjames @godcomplex96 @0x_d24 @ByzGeneral @CanteringClark @Cheguevoblin @DegenSpartan
@AkadoSang @veH0rny @OuroborosCap8 @tanoeth @RunnerXBT @DigitsCapital @lazyvillager1 @crypto_linn @therobotjames @godcomplex96 @0x_d24 @ByzGeneral @CanteringClark @Cheguevoblin @DegenSpartan
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