Those who can spare some time must read this to know the behavioural context : And it was written more than 100 years ago and still equally relevant
The Unbearable Lightness of Being…

Selden is writing of our inability to anticipate or price certain risks. Although we might think of this as similar to black swans, he goes on to mention earthquakes – so this is more about ‘known unknown’ tail risks, than events we have not even considered.
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“Even the…