The Preview: GW30 β A thread
Greetings everyone. Welcome to my latest preview article where I cover the most common FPL dilemmas before GW30:
Feel free to like and share if you find it to be helpful β€οΈ
Greetings everyone. Welcome to my latest preview article where I cover the most common FPL dilemmas before GW30:
Feel free to like and share if you find it to be helpful β€οΈ
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Before I begin, I'd like to say that we're heading into a deceptively tricky Gameweek.
With the template very strong and little to differentiate between most teams, GW30 will be decided by nailing the captain pick & getting your benching headaches correct.
With the template very strong and little to differentiate between most teams, GW30 will be decided by nailing the captain pick & getting your benching headaches correct.
*Haaland worth buying straight back?
If you have enough money to go from Toney to Haaland, you should stick to the plan, unless you hear any concrete news that Haaland isn't starting.
If you have enough money to go from Toney to Haaland, you should stick to the plan, unless you hear any concrete news that Haaland isn't starting.
Now that he is training, I expect him to start this week as Pep would want to give him some minutes before Bayern Munich in the Champions League. It is a transfer which has to be done at some point, so why not do it now when Haaland is the slightest of differentials?
He has had games sandwiched between the UCL earlier this season yet started all fixtures.
Worst case scenario is that we don't hear anything before the deadline & he ends up being benched but he could still do damage in 30 mins.
Worst case scenario is that we don't hear anything before the deadline & he ends up being benched but he could still do damage in 30 mins.
*Sell Kane/Salah for Haaland?
If Salah is fit, I wouldn't sell Salah to get Haaland this week. Find another way.
Salah is much better at home with a non penalty xGi of 0.84 per 90 (0.67 xG) v 0.46 (xG 0.26) away.
If Salah is fit, I wouldn't sell Salah to get Haaland this week. Find another way.
Salah is much better at home with a non penalty xGi of 0.84 per 90 (0.67 xG) v 0.46 (xG 0.26) away.
Having said that, you could argue that Arsenal's data away is much better as well.
Salah is still the most secure of the Liverpool attackers. I'd want him from 34 for the double & the fixtures after.
Salah is still the most secure of the Liverpool attackers. I'd want him from 34 for the double & the fixtures after.
In an ideal world, I would love to keep Kane and find another route to Haaland.
If you don't have a viable route nor do you think there is a viable hit to make Toney/Havertz to Haaland affordable, then I would reluctantly sell Kane.
If you don't have a viable route nor do you think there is a viable hit to make Toney/Havertz to Haaland affordable, then I would reluctantly sell Kane.
This is simply for the reason that his ceiling in general isn't as high as Haaland's when he plays.
*Sell Havertz/Toney for Haaland?
For those with both Havertz & Toney, choosing which one to sell for Haaland is a tricky call.
If no FH in 32, Havertz should go.
For those with both Havertz & Toney, choosing which one to sell for Haaland is a tricky call.
If no FH in 32, Havertz should go.
If FH in 32, I'd reluctantly sell Toney because if you end up selling Havertz in 30 & Toney gets banned in 31, it would put you in a sticky position.
Havertz had 1.8 xGi with 3 big chances in the double GW but no returns to show for it.
Havertz had 1.8 xGi with 3 big chances in the double GW but no returns to show for it.
*Is there a scenario where Haaland can be avoided?
If you are not Free Hitting in GW32 and don't think that Haaland is the best captain in the next two GWs, then there is a case to be made for avoiding Haaland all the way till GW34 after City play Arsenal.
If you are not Free Hitting in GW32 and don't think that Haaland is the best captain in the next two GWs, then there is a case to be made for avoiding Haaland all the way till GW34 after City play Arsenal.
In that case, you can captain one of Rashford/Watkins this week & then go for Salah/Kane next week.
*Who is the best captain?
Captaincy this week is one of the toughest calls we've had to make this season.
Captaincy this week is one of the toughest calls we've had to make this season.
Rashford is likely to be playing as a number nine against an Everton team conceding over 2 xG per away game under Dyche, Watkins is in the form of his life with his recent stats better than anyone else while Haaland is Haaland.
Haaland hasn't been as prolific away from home as at home but his xGi of 0.68 (xG 0.63) in away games is still pretty good. It is more or less on par with Rashford's home xGi and xG as well.
Everton have conceded twice in all of Dyche's away games so far as well.
Everton have conceded twice in all of Dyche's away games so far as well.
Rashford has the additional advantage of being a midfielder and higher expected minutes this GW but Haaland has penalties and City come into this week having had a full week of rest as opposed to Man United's short turnaround.
It will be very important to see if Pep says that he will be cautious with Haaland as that would suggest that his minutes will be managed.
Watkins is a good differential pick as well for those looking at a differential.
Watkins is a good differential pick as well for those looking at a differential.
Firstly, I'd like to highlight how good his numbers have been, having registered 10 attacking returns in the previous 13 games:
League rank:
Watkins post restart
Big chances: 2nd
xG: 2nd
xG non penalty: 3rd
League rank:
Watkins post restart
Big chances: 2nd
xG: 2nd
xG non penalty: 3rd
Under Emery, Watkins' post restart underlying data is better away than at home.
Having said that, his home numbers in recent games are perfectly fine in their own right:
v BOU: xGi 0.69, xG 0.65
v CPL: xGi 0.67, xG 0.66
v LEI: 0.69, xG 0.65
Having said that, his home numbers in recent games are perfectly fine in their own right:
v BOU: xGi 0.69, xG 0.65
v CPL: xGi 0.67, xG 0.66
v LEI: 0.69, xG 0.65
Expect similar v Forest who have an abysmal away record (34 goals conceded in 14 away games) & have lost 8 of their previous 9 encounters on xG. Watkins is also on penalties and Forest have conceded the most number of penalties this season.
I'll let you take your pick.
I'll let you take your pick.
*What to do with Shaw?
If Shaw is out this week, my plan will be to bench him and hope that he is back for the doubles in 34/37. He's a solid pick with the doubles to come till the end of the season so there is no urgent need to sell him even if he is out for a couple of weeks.
If Shaw is out this week, my plan will be to bench him and hope that he is back for the doubles in 34/37. He's a solid pick with the doubles to come till the end of the season so there is no urgent need to sell him even if he is out for a couple of weeks.
Early rumours are that the injury isn't serious but he could still well be rested for United's fixture v Sevilla.
*Play Newcastle, Brighton or Brentford defender?
I'm happy to play my second Newcastle defender this week - they are ranked 2nd for big chances conceded and non penalty xGc post restart.
I'm happy to play my second Newcastle defender this week - they are ranked 2nd for big chances conceded and non penalty xGc post restart.
Newcastle concede on average a xGc of 1.14 per game away, as opposed to Brighton's 1.42 away & Brentford's 1.47 at home. In fact, Brighton conceded a xG of 1.74 to Bournemouth in midweek and were lucky to come away with a clean sheet.
Back the best defence.
Back the best defence.
*What to do with Bruno Fernandes?
I'd suggest keeping faith with Bruno Fernandes, despite the fact that he played in a deeper position in the double. His underlying data was very poor as he failed to register a single shot in the box and had a combined xGi of 0.33 in the double.
I'd suggest keeping faith with Bruno Fernandes, despite the fact that he played in a deeper position in the double. His underlying data was very poor as he failed to register a single shot in the box and had a combined xGi of 0.33 in the double.
Casemiro and Eriksen will be back by Gameweek 31 which will allow him to play in an advanced position.
It does look like he will play in the double pivot again this week though:
It does look like he will play in the double pivot again this week though:
"Bruno was a little bit deeper and I think he was brilliant today. For me, the best player on the pitch. He dictated the game and led us to the win.β
He's a long term pick for me as I am eyeing a midfield of double Man United, double Brighton and Mohamed Salah till the end of the season. The upcoming fixture schedule is dictating the midfield template at the moment and it's very difficult to differentiate.
*Which Brighton/Arsenal mid to bench?
Roll a dice, it's as simple as that.
It's tough to bench the Brighton midfielders - Brighton have scored in each of their previous seven away games, scoring two or more goals in six of those seven games.
Roll a dice, it's as simple as that.
It's tough to bench the Brighton midfielders - Brighton have scored in each of their previous seven away games, scoring two or more goals in six of those seven games.
They are yet to lose a game away from home since their Gameweek 13 defeat to Manchester City.
I'd probably bench MacAllister over the other two Brighton mids as Enciso has had two lively appearances from the bench so there is a chance that he can start with MacAllister playing deeper.
Post restart, March has a better xGi per 90 than Mitoma but as we have seen time and again, Mitoma is simply more clinical.
In my opinion, Liverpool are more likely to capitulate than Tottenham which makes this decision a whole lot harder.
In my opinion, Liverpool are more likely to capitulate than Tottenham which makes this decision a whole lot harder.
Odegaard's xGi per 90 is better away from home while Saka's is much better at home, but Saka does have the comfort blanket of penalties. Arsenal have also had a week of rest.
*Play Raya or Kepa?
Playing Kepa over Raya seems fairly straightforward this week.
Newcastle accumulate xG at a must faster rate than Wolves, who will be without Neves as well.
According to the bookmakers, Chelsea are given a 42% chance of a clean sheet v Brentford's 25%.
Playing Kepa over Raya seems fairly straightforward this week.
Newcastle accumulate xG at a must faster rate than Wolves, who will be without Neves as well.
According to the bookmakers, Chelsea are given a 42% chance of a clean sheet v Brentford's 25%.
*Pre Wildcard punt for those Wildcarding in 33/34?
I would look at the City mids. Long term, I think Grealish looks like the best pick since he seems to have secured his spot (famous last words!). Since the restart, he has registered 9 attacking returns in 12 starts.
I would look at the City mids. Long term, I think Grealish looks like the best pick since he seems to have secured his spot (famous last words!). Since the restart, he has registered 9 attacking returns in 12 starts.
10 consecutive PL starts for him & an impressive xGi per 90 of 0.56 post restart. Just 3 big chances though so is heavily dependent on assists. Pep has been very complimentary of his performances and asked him to add goals to his game.
Both Leicester and Southampton, City's upcoming opponents, concedeΒ the majority of chances from his flank too so there is a good chance he does well.
Gundogan and Mahrez seem to have the most goal threat and are more explosive. Gundogan is at more risk with UCL around but with Foden out, Mahrez's spot is secure for the next couple of GWs at the very least - he would be my pick for the pre Wildcard punt.
*FH32 or 34?
FH32 picks itself as most teams have loaded up on Bri/Che/Utd & will possibly get Haaland as well.
Most of the starting 11 you want in GW34 don't play in GW32.
The only benefit I see of FH34 over 32 is that it makes a City mid or a 3rd Liverpool easier to get to.
FH32 picks itself as most teams have loaded up on Bri/Che/Utd & will possibly get Haaland as well.
Most of the starting 11 you want in GW34 don't play in GW32.
The only benefit I see of FH34 over 32 is that it makes a City mid or a 3rd Liverpool easier to get to.
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