The Employment Cost Index weighs in on the side of the argument that wage growth is not slowing--suggesting that the average hourly earnings slowdown was a spurious result of composition.
Over the last six months ECI up at a 4.7% annual rate, consistent with 4.0% PCE inflation.
Over the last six months ECI up at a 4.7% annual rate, consistent with 4.0% PCE inflation.
The previous showed private wages excluding incentive occupations, probably the best measure.
All the measures consistent. At an annual rate over the last 3 months:
Private comp: 4.7%
Private wages: 4.9%
Private wages ex incentive: 5.1%
All higher than any time in last cycle.
All the measures consistent. At an annual rate over the last 3 months:
Private comp: 4.7%
Private wages: 4.9%
Private wages ex incentive: 5.1%
All higher than any time in last cycle.
This leaves real wages and salaries 5 percent below their pre-pandemic trend.
Finally here is the inflation rate a few different measures of wages are consistent with. I would go with the 4% inflation signal from ECI, is the best data. And the average hourly earnings spuriously low due to composition.
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