๐งต1/
"If you think you need to have weapons to take on the government, you need F-15s and maybe some nuclear weapons"
Biden echoed what lots of establishment types believe when he said this, but is there any truth to it?
Obviously not
"If you think you need to have weapons to take on the government, you need F-15s and maybe some nuclear weapons"
Biden echoed what lots of establishment types believe when he said this, but is there any truth to it?
Obviously not
2/
First of all... no. Resorting to nuclear escalations in low intensity urban and suburban insurgency skirmishes is obviously a horrible idea
First of all... no. Resorting to nuclear escalations in low intensity urban and suburban insurgency skirmishes is obviously a horrible idea
3/
and as for F-15s or Drones (as if it really makes a difference where the pilots chair is located)...
Well that deals with the one insurgent, but now likewise you've got to deal with all his neighbors who took exception you turning their block or complex into a testing range
and as for F-15s or Drones (as if it really makes a difference where the pilots chair is located)...
Well that deals with the one insurgent, but now likewise you've got to deal with all his neighbors who took exception you turning their block or complex into a testing range
4/
The truth is the most tactically valuable part of a fighter isn't the bombs or guns or even stealth...
Its the sensor system. Everything else about the jet is worthless if it can't see what's around it. This is what lifts the fog of war and provides all that glorious data
The truth is the most tactically valuable part of a fighter isn't the bombs or guns or even stealth...
Its the sensor system. Everything else about the jet is worthless if it can't see what's around it. This is what lifts the fog of war and provides all that glorious data
5/
In any real situation where the US military brings its considerable technological power against a rebellious populace it will be using these incredible air based observation powers to guide ground based assets, to arrest them, or shoot them and plant guns
In any real situation where the US military brings its considerable technological power against a rebellious populace it will be using these incredible air based observation powers to guide ground based assets, to arrest them, or shoot them and plant guns
6/
this is the difference drones and airpower really makes against an insurgency.
There's just one problem:
The US has already deployed hundred thousand dollar airborne sensors against the populace.
That it basically what you local sheriff uses on his helicopter.
this is the difference drones and airpower really makes against an insurgency.
There's just one problem:
The US has already deployed hundred thousand dollar airborne sensors against the populace.
That it basically what you local sheriff uses on his helicopter.
7/
In terms of sensor capabilies the only ones that really matter against the US population are IR and Thermal vision.
Radar can detect metal objects, but the vast number of vehicles in the US, and the relative ease of hiding them once stopped makes it marginal.
In terms of sensor capabilies the only ones that really matter against the US population are IR and Thermal vision.
Radar can detect metal objects, but the vast number of vehicles in the US, and the relative ease of hiding them once stopped makes it marginal.
8/
Thermal imaging has already been deployed extensively by law enforcement.
you can watch videos of foot, car and even motorcycle chases on thermal
youtu.be
Thermal imaging has already been deployed extensively by law enforcement.
you can watch videos of foot, car and even motorcycle chases on thermal
youtu.be
9/
Now this concerning in as far as imagining used by advance military assets are already being deployed against American's in the form of militarized police...
But What does the military bring to the table that police aren't already using? Police struggle with simple gangs
Now this concerning in as far as imagining used by advance military assets are already being deployed against American's in the form of militarized police...
But What does the military bring to the table that police aren't already using? Police struggle with simple gangs
10/
And this is before we get into the effort "Second Amendment Types", including a good number of veterans, have put into theorizing counters to IR and thermal imaging + actively testing it out and demonstrating it,
since you can literally just buy thermal googles yourself
And this is before we get into the effort "Second Amendment Types", including a good number of veterans, have put into theorizing counters to IR and thermal imaging + actively testing it out and demonstrating it,
since you can literally just buy thermal googles yourself
11/
so ya, No.
Air superiority is not a suitable counter to a well armed (Ie. American) insurgency.
Though it might be ever so slightly more useful than nukes.
You still actually have to do the work of chasing suspects down
so ya, No.
Air superiority is not a suitable counter to a well armed (Ie. American) insurgency.
Though it might be ever so slightly more useful than nukes.
You still actually have to do the work of chasing suspects down
12/
Insurgencies are defeated by intelligence. & Intelligence, despite all the high tech... largely comes down to just "Detaining" and "Interrogating"
This is why counter-insurgency campaigns going back to the Boer War so often devolve to concentration camps and torture
Insurgencies are defeated by intelligence. & Intelligence, despite all the high tech... largely comes down to just "Detaining" and "Interrogating"
This is why counter-insurgency campaigns going back to the Boer War so often devolve to concentration camps and torture
13/
But this means you actually have to have armed men on the ground doing miserable Capture operations... this means they're going to be vulnerable, taking casualties and generally causing a political nightmare.
But this means you actually have to have armed men on the ground doing miserable Capture operations... this means they're going to be vulnerable, taking casualties and generally causing a political nightmare.
14/
recent Us wars have lasted so long because the political complexity counter insurgency vs. 10s of 1000s in a population of 10s of mils is just inherently not that solvable
the US always winds up trying to negotiate a political equilibrium after they've made one impossible.
recent Us wars have lasted so long because the political complexity counter insurgency vs. 10s of 1000s in a population of 10s of mils is just inherently not that solvable
the US always winds up trying to negotiate a political equilibrium after they've made one impossible.
15/
Meanwhile the US has near infinite resources coming from another continent
So all the insurgents can do is just keep grinding for a decade or two until the US gets bored.
Meanwhile the US has near infinite resources coming from another continent
So all the insurgents can do is just keep grinding for a decade or two until the US gets bored.
16/
"But the US Gov will never give up on America itself! Biden's right, the CHUDs would have to eventually form a conventional force, then they'd get shredded by F-35s... Time's against them, they'd just bleed out"
Ugh No.
If there's one side Time is on its not Biden's
"But the US Gov will never give up on America itself! Biden's right, the CHUDs would have to eventually form a conventional force, then they'd get shredded by F-35s... Time's against them, they'd just bleed out"
Ugh No.
If there's one side Time is on its not Biden's
17/
The US Military needs 800 billion a year to sustain itself... The full federal government consumes 6 TRILLION! PER YEAR!
In the event of an insurgency the economy would tank and tax revenues with it.
It'd be a race to restore order before the government runs out of money.
The US Military needs 800 billion a year to sustain itself... The full federal government consumes 6 TRILLION! PER YEAR!
In the event of an insurgency the economy would tank and tax revenues with it.
It'd be a race to restore order before the government runs out of money.
18/
For 30 years the troubles shredded Northern Ireland's economy with unemployment hitting 20%
The British still maintains security with funds from the rest of the Isles, but when the 1996 South Quay bombing threatened London's financial district they caved in the negotiations
For 30 years the troubles shredded Northern Ireland's economy with unemployment hitting 20%
The British still maintains security with funds from the rest of the Isles, but when the 1996 South Quay bombing threatened London's financial district they caved in the negotiations
19/
Quebec didn't even have a real insurgency. 2 kidnappings and destroyed mailboxes.
But in the aftermath of the FLQ crisis all the major banks and businesses fled to Toronto.
Montreal's great banks now lie empty or host pop up stores and hipster cafes
Quebec didn't even have a real insurgency. 2 kidnappings and destroyed mailboxes.
But in the aftermath of the FLQ crisis all the major banks and businesses fled to Toronto.
Montreal's great banks now lie empty or host pop up stores and hipster cafes
20/
This is why you don't wage war on your own population, and certainly not it's productive segments.
If the US government were stupid enough to fight its own people it wouldn't even come to revolution... It'd be crushed to death by its own bloated budgets and Bureaucracy
This is why you don't wage war on your own population, and certainly not it's productive segments.
If the US government were stupid enough to fight its own people it wouldn't even come to revolution... It'd be crushed to death by its own bloated budgets and Bureaucracy
21/
And that's it
Not any glorious second revolution for the right, nor any last solution to the CHUD question for the left
Just the iron law of entropy and bureaucratic decay
Then some lame treaty that will allow everyone to lie and avoid acknowledging "The End"
And that's it
Not any glorious second revolution for the right, nor any last solution to the CHUD question for the left
Just the iron law of entropy and bureaucratic decay
Then some lame treaty that will allow everyone to lie and avoid acknowledging "The End"
P.S. I also write long form content.
Checkout my piece on evading IR, Stealth, Motorcycles, and the Future of Warfare:
(Link in Profile)
Checkout my piece on evading IR, Stealth, Motorcycles, and the Future of Warfare:
(Link in Profile)
Loading suggestions...