🚨This 🧵takes a look at potential scenarios for MUFC's the summer transfer window and analyze the FFP impact of different alternatives. Sometimes described as a circus, there isn't a champion in modern time that hasn't been built on transfers. Some interesting stuff 👇.💣(1/51)
To analyze a club’s transfer window, many questions must be answered. What is the transfer budget? How much can the club spend on different squad positions? Long-term depth chart. What type of players are the club looking at? Which players can the club get?(2/51)
Under FFP, I think a reasonable target number is that we can build towards a squad that can cost “£504m” per season in amortization and salaries with today’s transfer prices and going rates for wages. This could enable a squad constructed in according with the below.(3/51)
What does the table say? It basically shows how we can afford a squad of two 150m signings, seven 100m signings, four 75m signings, and so forth, as set out below. But could we really afford a squad that expensive? Seems like a fantasy? (4/51)
Two things, one, its forward looking can't afford it today due to past sins; Woodward, the pandemic etc. And the economy is growing. Second, this is what we can afford from a FFP perspective, we still must be able to pay the money for the signings, have the cash flow. (5/51)
The £504m figure is 70% of an estimated revenue of 720m in two years’ time (when the Squad Cost Rule fully have entered into force). We are not there yet, but should be in two years. But the calculations does not include a new owner clearing the debt etc. (6/51)
Even if these estimates can be rough, they are valuable, and a club must of course plan for these type of transfer fee+wages-slots for continuity. Even if off by 10 or even 15 percent, it provides a rule of thumb of what we can spend on different roles/positions.(7/51)
So what is ETH’s budget? What we spend in the summer of 23’ will impact our FFP licensing in 24’ before the 24/25 season. At this point, we will be reviewed based on our aggregate earnings during 22/23 and 23/24, which I after relevant adj. estimate to be minus 12m.(8/51)
Since our Aggregate Football Earnings are allowed to be minus 60m and they are projected to come in at minus 12m, this means that we can incur app. 48m in additional costs for 23/24 during the summer window, without player sales.(8/51)
The cost to sign a player for 100m to a 5 year 200k contract is 100/5=20m in amortization and 52w x 200k = app. 10m in wages, i.e. a total of 30m (30m in earnings or cut costs = 100m in transfer spending -- is a rule of thumb that will be used a lot in the following). (9/51)
Hence our FFP space enables spending of app. 100-150m -- with -- CL football, which provides us with app. 50m in extra revenue. Without CL football, our transferbudget before sales would have been ZERO. But we will of course sell players. (10/51)
Three players are strongly rumored to be sold since they don’t fit, Henderson, McT and Maguire. If sold for a total of £60m, it improves our earnings with app. 68m, and since 30m in earnings equal a 100m signing, this immediately increases our budget with app. 200m. (11/51)
We have some “deadwood” in Williams, Telles and Bailly. Just clearing their wages isn't insignifcant, resulting in +13m. Counting a bit conservatively, and with margins, we now should be able to spend 300m under the FFP. (12/51)
Will we be done trying to achieve the above? Anyone stating that we should be amazed if we manage to sell even 3 players – certainly have history on their side. The last 10 years we have managed to sell a total of 10 players for 10+m, and never more than 2 in a season. (13/51)
But it is not impossible to sell players, Chelsea has during the same period sold 30 players for 10+m. I don’t know what to think, going back to the El Pais article from a week ago, in which a member of Jassim’s transaction team stated that our management had described…(14/51)
..describes how our management are pitching that it is possible to spend 500m on the transfer market this summer, with an already facilitated credit line from BoA, it shows that we might have bigger plans. If a new owner want to make a splash, other players must be sold. (15/51)
Fairly strong rumors have Martial being let go, we are linked to a RB and a CB, as well as Mount and Rice. If we are to sign two strikers, two CMs, a RB, a CB and a back-up keeper – 300m won’t cut it. So which other players can we sell? (16/51)
If we are to be able to spend up towards 400m if not more, we must sell players who are valuable parts of the squad. I.e. Martial, Sancho, Dalot, AWB or Lindelof. The table below sets out how much it would impact our earnings next season if we sold one of them this summer.(17/51)
If we really are going down this route – I know, sounds unlikely given past history, at the same time, who knows with a new owner and ppl fighting for their jobs – it’s anyone’s guess who we will sell. It won’t be popular – but I actually wouldn’t rule out that its Dalot.(18/51)
Why? The result exposes a side effect of FFP, short term it is lucrative to sell a homegrown player, since the entire tranfer fee is a profit. Dalot should also be the easiest to sell. Selling Dalot for 40m, would improve our earnings with app. 51m next season. (19/51)
51m in improved earnings enables us to both buy Frimpong and a 100m No 9 under the FFP. In any event, I would guess at on one of the RBs to leave. If this is done, it brings the transfer budget up to 400m going forward. (20/51)
What can we do with 400m? First of all, lets cover how we would be impacted by signing Rice and Mount. To me, Mount does not give us an edge against MCFC, and Rice is perfect attribute wise, but has never played one single game for a team that plays up from the back. (21/51)
(22/51) But, thinking it true, I have changed my mind on them. First of all, at 55m and 85m a pop, we do not set out side funds for them that – albeit long-term – must have been used on key players. Back to the previous break-down, this is where they would slot in basically.
Both are 24 y/o, should have a good 7-8 years in them at least. They are team loyal. Both have a bit of a upside still in them. They simply would not be our Pogba of 2016 signing. Money is worth less, our earnings will get higher. (23/51)
In the hunt for our top target, a No 9, and a back-up striker if Martial is going, I think we will have to skip through the first names on our wish list. (24/51)
Napoli has just won the Scuddeto, VO has two years left on his contract, KMJ could leave. If VO also leavs, why should Kvaratskhelia stay? If I was the manager of that team, I would more or less block any calls from Oshimen’s agent until the window closes.(25/51)
With Kane, we already have Casemiro and Varane on contracts that – long term – can be complicated on the tail end. Can these guys still deliver when they are 34 y/o? Can you have that much funds tied up in three guys like that at the same time around 2027? (26/51)
(27/51) From my POV, Levy would be nuts – not – selling Kane for 70-80m. But how much would we be willing to pay? It is hard to see a deal getting done. So, who is left? Lately, the strongest links have been to Benfica’s 21 y/o Gonçalo Ramos. I would label him "quality".
(28/51) Ramos can finish with both feet, he has a great first touch, he is good in the air, he isn’t bad off the ball. The next Benzema? But he is just 21 y/o, he has never faced any adversity. The PL is a very tough league. And its many highly touted St struggle here.
(29/51) Is Ramos ready to put in the extremely hard work to get to the level it takes to make it in the PL? How would he react to adversity? Immediately making him the top guy, is a bit risky. Another name is Dusan Vlahovic – but I am definitely not his biggest fan.
(30/51) Its our interest in someone like Vlahovic that makes me a afraid of our recruiting department, I fear had we been successful [sic] in our pursuit for him, he could have become another Olé disaster. He is not a factor on the press. He is not a threat with speed.
The one I really think tic the boxes for ETH is Eintrach Frankfurt’s Randal Kolo Muani, who is rumored to be available for 100m. He is a pure work-horse, so hard to contain. He has the speed and is so slippery with the ball, and will go for it for the full 90 minutes.(31/51)
(32/51) Also good in the air at 6’2. His weakest ability is probably, his first touch and finishing. But he is really good on the press, really good on the link-up. Can play in a big or smaller role. Just 24 y/o. Hence, he is the one I would bet money on. youtube.com
(33/51) 100m spent on RKM, one striker ✅, 160m left to spend on a back-up striker, a RB and a CB. When ETH was in charge of Ajax, they turned to South America for Antony, Lisandro Martinez and Edson Alvarez – and all three was massively successful signings.
(34/51) Endrick is signed by Real Madrid, but one kid remains – that we have been linked to – who has been “ear marked” for Barcelona, and that is Club Athletico Paranaense's Vitor Roque. With Barca’s monumental financial problems, they are probably out.
(35/51) Vitor Roque is besides Barca, also linked to Chelsea and Arsenal. But he is just 18, and with a 35m price tag (plus add-on probably bring up it towards 45-50m potentially), he just can’t be “counted” on carrying a team. Does he make sense for them?
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It would be exciting to get a very talented young striker, which hasn't happened before due to the old work permit rules. If a new owner want to become popular – VT tics many boxes. And I don’t think the competition is that steep, the timing is good. 35m spent, 125m left.(36/51)
(37/51) If a RB is sold, we need a RB, and that RB would be Jeremie Frimpong. He is homegrown (City's academy). Anyone want to see what this kid is about, he put in a great performance against Bochum this wknd. Leverkusen got a red after 10 min and coached by Xabi Alonso…
(38/51)..they kept playing a possession game, and Frimpong was literary all over the pitch. They lost 3-0, but the shots were actually 12-11 and the possession was even. Frimpong should have had a goal (hit the inside of the post on a break away) and an assist.
(39/51) In terms of having an engine, having top speed, being able to cover a lot of ground, being mobile/agile -- I think Frimpong is as good as it gets more or less. Back defending, then up pitch, in the blink of an eye.
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But Frimpong won’t be cheap, all the talent in the world, head screwed on right, he will cost 50m. 75m left for the CB position. We all know that Kim Min-jae is available for £56m. In terms of being able to play a high defense, he is world class. Cannot be questioned. (40/51)
(41/51) But to be honest, I am not convinced about his passing game. His passing metrics are fantastic – but when watching him, his role on the ball is definitely limited both for Napoli against the better team and especially for South K. for which he plays a simplistic game.
Being influenced of how big of a role the CBs have had on the ball for ETH in Ajax, and also Martinez for us in Manchester – its just obvious that KMJ at all isn’t that type who dictates the tempo from the back end. But with that said, he can definitely pass the ball.(42/51)
If ETH signs of on him, it’s a signing I would be really excited about. This leaves 19m, which should be spent on a back-up GK and kids for the academy. Ole lost my trust, but we have the depth on the academy we have now, because Olé spent on Diallo, Garnacho, Pellestri.(43/51)
(44/51) So in short, the following players would be leaving in this scenario:
Sold:
Maguire
Henderson
McTominay
Dalot
Released/loaned: Martial, Bailly and Telles.
Bought:
Kolo Muani
Vitor Roque
Rice
Mount
KMJ
J. Frimpong
Sold:
Maguire
Henderson
McTominay
Dalot
Released/loaned: Martial, Bailly and Telles.
Bought:
Kolo Muani
Vitor Roque
Rice
Mount
KMJ
J. Frimpong
(45/51) Depth chart:
ST: Kolo Muani / Vitor Roque (Rashford)
LW: Rashford / Garnacho
RW: Antony / Diallo
AMC: Bruno / Sancho
MC: Mount / Eriksen
DMC: Casemiro / Rice
LD: Shaw / Malacia
LCD: Martinez / KMJ
RCD: Varane / Lindelof
GK: DDG / NGK
ST: Kolo Muani / Vitor Roque (Rashford)
LW: Rashford / Garnacho
RW: Antony / Diallo
AMC: Bruno / Sancho
MC: Mount / Eriksen
DMC: Casemiro / Rice
LD: Shaw / Malacia
LCD: Martinez / KMJ
RCD: Varane / Lindelof
GK: DDG / NGK
So we have covered how these signings can be made in relation to the FFP. How would they be financed? As set out in the El Pais article …(46/51)
..initially it would be financed with debt. Wouldn’t that be a disaster? Look, it’s of course not sustainable. But it’s not like it’s the end of the world in the near future. It is debt that together with the existing debt, we never can repay with self-generated funds.(47/51)
(48/51) Due to how the Glazers’ have run the club, we must get a cash infusion from our next owner, it is as simple as that. The cost for buying these players with debt finance is 5% interest on 400m, or 20m a year. We need a new stadium. And a new training ground.
(49/51) But I do not think that is entirely negative, because I cannot see how a new owner could plan to buy this club and not invest in it. Letting us be financed with internal cash-flow cannot be a new option. Clear the debt and add 400m for transfers,...
(51/51) and then back the financing of the new stadium – and we become a club that should have every chance to compete with anyone. Don’t do it, and we have no future, or our future is the same as West Ham United’s. The first option is good business, the second option isn't.
Insert "RB: AWB/Frimpong"
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