Manchester City are *HEAVY* favourites to win the champions league final tonight, becoming the first english side to win the treble since 1999. But it won’t be easy…
In this thread, i analyse how Inter Milan can create one of the biggest upsets of all time…
THREAD!
In this thread, i analyse how Inter Milan can create one of the biggest upsets of all time…
THREAD!
It is undeniable that Manchester City have advantages going into this final, they will likely pin Inter deep into their half, dominating the ball.
Rodri & the inverting John Stones will likely be deep into Inter’s half too, making it extremely difficult to break out the press.
Rodri & the inverting John Stones will likely be deep into Inter’s half too, making it extremely difficult to break out the press.
Manchester City have recently utilised a 3-2 build up structure, moving John Stones into midfield.
John Stones is a one of a kind player, only L Martinez can match him with his ball-playing, press resistance and comfortability pushing forward.
However, this may be problem #1.
John Stones is a one of a kind player, only L Martinez can match him with his ball-playing, press resistance and comfortability pushing forward.
However, this may be problem #1.
Let me explain.
Inter Milan typically set up in a compact 5-3-2 with the wing-backs dropping deep to create a back 5, the midfielders dropping deep to block out central zones, two traditional strikers leading the line and a hybrid pressing system.
They thrive without the ball.
Inter Milan typically set up in a compact 5-3-2 with the wing-backs dropping deep to create a back 5, the midfielders dropping deep to block out central zones, two traditional strikers leading the line and a hybrid pressing system.
They thrive without the ball.
Inter Milan’s hybrid pressing system is a mix between man-to-man and zonal.
Simone Inzaghi allocates each player with a certain zone, when an opposition player enters the zone, they man-mark.
Simone Inzaghi allocates each player with a certain zone, when an opposition player enters the zone, they man-mark.
For example, Nicolò Barella was tasked to press Hernandez in this particular zone to maintain the back five.
Inter’s wing-backs were able to stay deep, leave no space in between the lines or central zones, even able to maintain a 3v1 on Oliver Giroud.
Compact, compact, compact.
Inter’s wing-backs were able to stay deep, leave no space in between the lines or central zones, even able to maintain a 3v1 on Oliver Giroud.
Compact, compact, compact.
This compactness from Inter Milan in the middle really helps with counter-attacks.
AC Milan went long, the second-ball was overwhelmed with Inter bodies and lost, the flick on from Barella to Dimarco instantly leaves Milan in a 4v4.
The late-running centre midfielder scores.
AC Milan went long, the second-ball was overwhelmed with Inter bodies and lost, the flick on from Barella to Dimarco instantly leaves Milan in a 4v4.
The late-running centre midfielder scores.
The system is perfect for transitions as there are threats everywhere.
The wing-backs stretch the pitch, provide the width and create numbers forward, likely the most threatening with DiMarco advancing to cross & Dumfries normally unmarked at the back post.
The wing-backs 🔑
The wing-backs stretch the pitch, provide the width and create numbers forward, likely the most threatening with DiMarco advancing to cross & Dumfries normally unmarked at the back post.
The wing-backs 🔑
These transitions will likely be the way to cause chaos in this final. The only problem is, most teams have this plan of action, and still fail.
But Inter Milan have tools that other teams simply do not possess, and can force transitions that are unstoppable.
Enter Andrè Onana.
But Inter Milan have tools that other teams simply do not possess, and can force transitions that are unstoppable.
Enter Andrè Onana.
André Onana is an elite ball-playing GK, and by spreading the pitch wide and deep, his passing range can potentially feed the 3 centre-backs, any of his midfielders, chipped passes to the wing-backs, or long to the target-man.
Inter Milan’s plan should be going long from Andrè Onana to Edin Dzeko.
This worked against AC Milan, luring the opposition midfielders deep into the press in order to create space to go direct.
This WILL work against Manchester City because this way of attack is unstoppable.
This worked against AC Milan, luring the opposition midfielders deep into the press in order to create space to go direct.
This WILL work against Manchester City because this way of attack is unstoppable.
As said before, Manchester City will likely be deep into Inter’s half with Rodri & John Stones advancing forward to cut off any passing lanes and make it extremely difficult for Inter to ever play out.
This leaves Manchester City to defend in a three against Dzeko & Martinez.
This leaves Manchester City to defend in a three against Dzeko & Martinez.
Inter Milan’s biggest opportunities to not only stay in the game, but to win the game, is to skip this entire passage of play in order to go long to Dzeko.
Andrè Onana may be blocked off, but this will likely free up the wide centre-back in Bastoni who has similar passing range.
Andrè Onana may be blocked off, but this will likely free up the wide centre-back in Bastoni who has similar passing range.
If Edin Dzeko wins the ball, he can pass it out wide to the wing-back to start the transition, Lautaro Martinez can win the second-ball, late-running midfielders can latch onto it or start running forward.
John Stones inverting into midfield leaves City to defend in a narrow back three.
If they want to cover up on the two forwards, they leave the wide spaces open to be exploited.
If they do not want to cover up on the two forwards, Edin Dzeko is the favourite in any aerial duel.
If they want to cover up on the two forwards, they leave the wide spaces open to be exploited.
If they do not want to cover up on the two forwards, Edin Dzeko is the favourite in any aerial duel.
The wide spaces will create a problem.
I personally think it would be better to invert a full-back rather than a centre-back as the two strikers will leave the full-back as the spare man (even including Bernardo) or dropping Rodri into a back 5 in order to counteract the 4v4.
I personally think it would be better to invert a full-back rather than a centre-back as the two strikers will leave the full-back as the spare man (even including Bernardo) or dropping Rodri into a back 5 in order to counteract the 4v4.
To summarise, Inter’s chance of scoring :
- Onana skipping the passage of play by going long to Dzeko
- Wing-backs stroll forward to utilise the wide spaces & create an instant 4v4
- Late-running midfielders get forward
No matter what, Inter honestly have a huge chance.
- Onana skipping the passage of play by going long to Dzeko
- Wing-backs stroll forward to utilise the wide spaces & create an instant 4v4
- Late-running midfielders get forward
No matter what, Inter honestly have a huge chance.
However, the most important thing Inter have to focus on tonight is how they themselves can defend, as they will be likely doing this for 90% of the match.
Good news is, they’re tactically equipped for this battle too.
Good news is, they’re tactically equipped for this battle too.
First things first, Inter defend with a 5 in the last line, & Manchester City love to overload their opponent’s with their attacking 5 in the last line.
They shouldn’t be able to do this as easy as normal tonight.
They shouldn’t be able to do this as easy as normal tonight.
Eirling Haaland CAN be kept quiet tonight by potentially being tripled up on, but this 3v1 will be unlikely considering the clear threat of KDB in space.
I imagine one of the centre-backs will push into midfield in order to limit KDB’s space, leaving Haaland 1v2 - not ideal.
I imagine one of the centre-backs will push into midfield in order to limit KDB’s space, leaving Haaland 1v2 - not ideal.
Manchester City are the favourites for a reason, they will clearly have these little tactical advantages too, but with Inter potentially going with the 3v1, i believe they will rely on individual quality more than people might think.
Kevin De Bruyne will likely step up.
Kevin De Bruyne will likely step up.
All graphics in this thread used to further explain my points were from the brilliant The Athletic.
In summary, Manchester City will create more chances, dominate the ball, but likely rely on individual brilliance if they are to find an opening.
Inter Milan are the underdogs, but can use their traditional values of going long to a traditional forward to create chaos.
🔵⚫️
Inter Milan are the underdogs, but can use their traditional values of going long to a traditional forward to create chaos.
🔵⚫️
Loading suggestions...