Michael Pettis
Michael Pettis

@michaelxpettis

5 Tweets 3 reads Jul 08, 2023
1/5
This article seems to argue that middle-eastern investment into China is good for China, but it's hard to see why. If it were bringing advanced technology with it, it could obviously benefit the Chinese economy, but clearly that isn't the case.
wsj.com
2/5
Given China's excess savings and its huge net export of capital, there are only two ways China can accommodate a surge in middle-eastern inflows. One way is with a contraction in its trade surplus, but given...
3/5
weak domestic demand, that would almost certainly mean either higher unemployment or even more domestic investment in the kinds of projects China is trying hard to limit.
4/5
The other way is to intermediate these flows by acquiring more foreign assets, and ultimately this means an increase in its exposure to US assets, something Beijing claims it is trying to reverse.
5/5
Too many analysts assume without much thinking that foreign investment is always a good thing. That's because they've never considered that under some conditions foreign investment can boost growth and under others it doesn't.
carnegieendowment.org

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