Josko Gvardiol to City, what does it mean?
- Analyzing where the (soon to be) most expensive defender of all time fits into Pep Guardiola's plans and explaining why he warrants such a price tag -
[A THREAD]
- Analyzing where the (soon to be) most expensive defender of all time fits into Pep Guardiola's plans and explaining why he warrants such a price tag -
[A THREAD]
If you're unfamiliar, Josko Gvardiol is a 21-year-old, 6'1" (185 cm) tall defender hailing from Zagreb, Croatia
The young defender has received much acclaim over the past two years - as he has blossomed with the Croatian national team and Bundesliga side RB Leipzig
The young defender has received much acclaim over the past two years - as he has blossomed with the Croatian national team and Bundesliga side RB Leipzig
After 87 games with Leipzig over two seasons, Gvardiol is making the big move to Manchester
In ~100 games of his top level professional career, what has Gvardiol shown to warrant an Β£80+ price tag and a place in City's treble-winning side?
Let me show you...
In ~100 games of his top level professional career, what has Gvardiol shown to warrant an Β£80+ price tag and a place in City's treble-winning side?
Let me show you...
I'll start with two stats:
1. Over the past year, he's in the 99th percentile of center backs for passes att. and prog. passing distance
2. He has never made an error leading to a goal in the Bundesliga (4,579 minutes)
At a glance, he's an elite ball-player not prone to errors
1. Over the past year, he's in the 99th percentile of center backs for passes att. and prog. passing distance
2. He has never made an error leading to a goal in the Bundesliga (4,579 minutes)
At a glance, he's an elite ball-player not prone to errors
In a high tempo Marco Rose system prioritizing transitions and physicality, Gvardiol shone as the left center back
Partnered with club captain Willi Orban, Gvardiol commanded the left side of a demanding ball-playing defense in a 4222
Image 1: FBRef passing percentiles comparedβ¦
Partnered with club captain Willi Orban, Gvardiol commanded the left side of a demanding ball-playing defense in a 4222
Image 1: FBRef passing percentiles comparedβ¦
Relative to Pep's general principles, it's easy to see why Gvardiol fits in - he's a technically superb defender who thrives with on-ball responsibility
Ideologically, Gvardiol fits into City's system like a glove, and he has proven this with flying colors under Rose
Ideologically, Gvardiol fits into City's system like a glove, and he has proven this with flying colors under Rose
Dig a bit deeper and you'll find Gvardiol perfectly fits another (quite new) quality Pep strives for...
Defenders who like to defend, who take pride in exerting individual dominance
Check out this clip from an interview with Thierry Henry, just before the 2023 UCL Finalβ¦
Defenders who like to defend, who take pride in exerting individual dominance
Check out this clip from an interview with Thierry Henry, just before the 2023 UCL Finalβ¦
Watch Gvardiol for a few minutes and you're sure to see this quality come out
He has already faced many of the best attackers in the world and not once has he backed down from the challenge
He has already faced many of the best attackers in the world and not once has he backed down from the challenge
What does it say about a defender if their worst moments include getting beat 1 v 1 against Messi or losing 7-0 to a treble-winning City side?
What does it say if those are practically their only bad moments to speak of?
What does it say if those are practically their only bad moments to speak of?
Ideologically, Gvardiol fits the mold quite perfectly
Considering City's main weakness last season was a lack of depth in Nathan Ake's absence, it's easy to defend their interest
Just look at the similarities between Gvardiol's 22/23 league heatmap (left) and Ake's (right)
Considering City's main weakness last season was a lack of depth in Nathan Ake's absence, it's easy to defend their interest
Just look at the similarities between Gvardiol's 22/23 league heatmap (left) and Ake's (right)
Perhaps the bigger question: Gvardiol is a great fit on paper, but does he justify the price tag?
Any time a player breaks a ceiling with their transfer fee, questions are asked
More or less: Is that player of exceptional quality to "deserve" the price tag?
Of course, theβ¦
Any time a player breaks a ceiling with their transfer fee, questions are asked
More or less: Is that player of exceptional quality to "deserve" the price tag?
Of course, theβ¦
In Gvardiol's case, what makes him so special?
Why didn't City spend less on a different left-sided defensive option?
The short answer is attacking potential and tactical flexibility
Here's the long answer...
Why didn't City spend less on a different left-sided defensive option?
The short answer is attacking potential and tactical flexibility
Here's the long answer...
First off, At the core of Gvardiol's ability is a physical profile idealized for dominating wide areas, as is demanded by City's outside center backs in a 3-2 build-up
NNT wrote an excellent thread on Gvardiol's biomechanics, describing why he is suited to play such a role as aβ¦
NNT wrote an excellent thread on Gvardiol's biomechanics, describing why he is suited to play such a role as aβ¦
Returning to on-ball qualities, take a look at what is expected of City's wide center back(s)
Initiating attacking sequences from just inside the attacking half, breaking lines in multiple fashions, keeping the opponent's defensive line honest whenever they step too high...β¦
Initiating attacking sequences from just inside the attacking half, breaking lines in multiple fashions, keeping the opponent's defensive line honest whenever they step too high...β¦
As good as Nathan Ake has been as a wide center back in City's 3-2, the system has also called attention to some of his weaknesses in the final third
In this clip, for instance (City vs Palace, March 11, 2023), Ake overlaps Jack Grealish yet fails to deliver a ball of qualityβ¦
In this clip, for instance (City vs Palace, March 11, 2023), Ake overlaps Jack Grealish yet fails to deliver a ball of qualityβ¦
Over the course of last season, City's left side were notably less fluid than City's right side - primarily down to the in-possession limitations of Ake compared to John Stones
One could draw a connection to Grealish's output and decision-making, as well
As good as City were,β¦
One could draw a connection to Grealish's output and decision-making, as well
As good as City were,β¦
Compared to City's defenders (using FBRef with 22/23 league stats), Gvardiol is on another level when it comes to ball carrying, take-ons, and shooting
Statistically, he performs much more similar to John Stones than he does Ake or Dias - a sign of things to come
Statistically, he performs much more similar to John Stones than he does Ake or Dias - a sign of things to come
With immediate effect, City's opposition will be forced to defend in a slightly different manner - you simply can't afford Gvardiol some of the liberties you could give to Ake
Gvardiol's attacking impetus will in turn create more space for the likes of Jack Grealish, Philβ¦
Gvardiol's attacking impetus will in turn create more space for the likes of Jack Grealish, Philβ¦
In the initial stage of Gvardiol's time at City, I expect him to compete with Ake for the wide left center back role in the 3-2 build-up
Over time, however, Gvardiol affords Pep tactical flexibility Ake simply cannot
He can develop into an inverted role (like Stones and Lewis),β¦
Over time, however, Gvardiol affords Pep tactical flexibility Ake simply cannot
He can develop into an inverted role (like Stones and Lewis),β¦
All-in-all, Josko Gvardiol is an elite ball-playing center back with an unfathomable ceiling
A perfect fit for City's newfound ethos of individual dominance, the Croatian bolsters the club's young core and adds much needed depth to the left side of defense...
A perfect fit for City's newfound ethos of individual dominance, the Croatian bolsters the club's young core and adds much needed depth to the left side of defense...
Over time, Gvardiol's individual quality will afford Pep a myriad of tactical possibilities - providing a flexibility which will elevate those around him
Give it some time, and Josko Gvardiol will show everyone exactly why he is worthy of being the most expensive defender.
Give it some time, and Josko Gvardiol will show everyone exactly why he is worthy of being the most expensive defender.
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