Michael Pettis
Michael Pettis

@michaelxpettis

5 Tweets 2 reads Jul 31, 2023
1/5
Continued contraction in Chinese manufacturing is boosting Asian stocks "on hopes that Beijing will unveil concrete measures to support the stalled economy."
Those measures are increasingly likely, but I doubt they'll have the expected consequences.
ft.com
2/5
I've been telling clients that recent numbers are bad enough that Beijing will almost certainly unleash the kind of supply-side stimulus measures to which it has always resorted, but those measures are in fact the source of China's economic malaise.
3/5
This Reuters article, for example, suggests that even officials in the best-performing property markets are worried about continued weakness in real estate activity, and are looking for ways to revive the property sector.
reuters.com
4/5
While these various measures in property and infrastructure will certainly boost certain kinds of economic activity, they won't increase the value of what the economy produces because they'll mostly represent increases in non-productive investment.
5/5
There will still be benefits to those sectors that supply this activity – for example producers of cement and industrial commodities – but these will be balanced by losses elsewhere as the stimulus measures fail to buoy the overall economy.

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