Michael Pettis
Michael Pettis

@michaelxpettis

3 Tweets 4 reads Aug 09, 2023
1/3
Is China finally in deflation? "China's consumer prices fell in July for the first time since February 2021," says China Daily, "while factory-gate prices declined at a slower pace."
But that's not really the way I see it.
chinadaily.com.cn
2/3
I'd say that China was in CPI deflation (that forbidden word) for most of this year, but that in July for the first time since February the CPI index actually rose.
This doesn't prove that deflation is over – we will need to see a few more months of increases – but it...
3/3
suggests that the news is not quite as bad as the many headlines propose.
What is clear, however, is that the GDP deflator continues to be negative, and so China's debt-to-GDP ratio will rise even more this year than expected

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