Can you really make money using @casper_smc 's Silver Bullet Strategy? Let's test it over the past 3333 trading days! (1/11)
Casper is a funded trader and an educator known for simplifying concepts from ICT into tradable strategies. His motto is to help you become profitable with minimal studying. This approach is both great for beginners and easy to automate, so let's do that! (2/11)
Here are the rules:
1) NQ only
2) Look for an FVG to form between 10 a.m. and 11 a.m. NY time
3) Enter on the closer side of FVG (top for longs, bottom for shorts).
4) SL above/ below the furthest wick of the FVG and target 2 RR
5) Close the trade at 4 p.m. if you are still in.
1) NQ only
2) Look for an FVG to form between 10 a.m. and 11 a.m. NY time
3) Enter on the closer side of FVG (top for longs, bottom for shorts).
4) SL above/ below the furthest wick of the FVG and target 2 RR
5) Close the trade at 4 p.m. if you are still in.
That’s it. No daily bias or liquidity sweep needed, we can even trade the days with news.
Will we see the promised 50%-win rate?
Okay, we magically have the code done, let’s see how our account would look like if we took every entry risking 0.5% of our capital on each trade:
Will we see the promised 50%-win rate?
Okay, we magically have the code done, let’s see how our account would look like if we took every entry risking 0.5% of our capital on each trade:
Okay, looks like shit so far, but that’s not really fair. Let’s drop everything before 2015 as we do not have complete data for those years, and it might be messing up the results.
(5/11)
(5/11)
Okay, still doesn’t look that good (unless you were lucky and started trading it in 2019). Let’s check some statistics:
(6/11)
(6/11)
If we examine the rolling win rates, we see that the 50% win rate is never achieved, even with an average of 100 trades. It hovers around 30%, which isn't enough to make money given the 2:1 risk-reward ratio.
(7/11)
(7/11)
Just for comparison this is what we’d expect a 50% WR strategy to look like, compared to what we saw:
(8/11)
(8/11)
Result: This strategy will NOT❌ get you funded and will most likely lead to you losing your capital.
This is by not a shot against Casper, his results and his students’ results speak for themselves. The silver bullet strategy as presented in his video does not work.
(9/11)
This is by not a shot against Casper, his results and his students’ results speak for themselves. The silver bullet strategy as presented in his video does not work.
(9/11)
That's why next week, we'll dive deeper into the data and see if we can make some adjustments to make it profitable while staying true to the original ideaâś….
(10/11)
(10/11)
Retweet and I’ll directly send you the strategy early along with all the trade charts with ALL the trades to study. At no cost to you except for 1 click. (11/11)
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