Rattibha

Comprehensive $BANANA analysis by the numbers, you can decide whether bullish or bearish (hint: I'm very bullish).
First the most basic stats:
FDV mcap = $115 million
Circulating mcap = $29.5 million
Current projected annual revenue = $8 million (bot only, no taxes)

BananaGun has overtaken both $UNIBOT and Maestroy in terms of users, and the trend is continuing in that direction. However, number of users can be misleading, since the more important stat is volume.

Let's look at 9/17 stats:
Banana revenue = 13.3 ETH (highest daily = 24.9)
Unibot revenue = 9.2 ETH (highest daily = 48.2)
Maestro revenue = 40.3 ETH (highest daily = 155.6)
So BG is currently capturing about 21% of the total volume. A lot of room for growth.

Is the FDV relevant? What about inflation? The large difference between the circulating mcap and the FDV makes it harder to peg what the "real" value should be. Since 40% of bot revenue and 50% of taxes shared among holders, the circulating supply is the most relevant to me.

Current circulating supply is ~26 million. The team has said that they will control emissions to allow for a maximum of ~30% inflation in year one, and taper down from there. Here is a graph of my OWN estimations of what that could look like, with an upper and lower bound.

So let's take the 12 month mark, we might be at about 32% supply circulating. Remember that 5% of the team's 10% is eligible for revenue sharing, so when we think about the earning potential, I am working with a number of 37% supply "circulating" for those calculations.

This does not account for some level of treasury use to buyback and burn $BANANA, which would reduce the circulating supply even further.

Ok, so what about future growth? There are 3 ways for BG to expand:
1. Take more share of the current tg bot market
2. Expand the tg bot market to onboard more users who currently only use uniswap
3. Overall market expansion when volumes increase across the board.

1. Back in the beginning of July, BG only had 2% of
bot users, and in 2.5 months has grown to 42% of bot users. But like we said, they still only have 21% of the volume. If the team continues their trajectory, this could rise significantly.

If the team delivers on their UX upgrade, limit orders, copy trading, auto-sells, etc. then it is reasonable for me to think they could continue to take more of the pie and get even to 50% volume dominance.
That's a 2.5x on revenue.

2. Expanding the total tg bot userbase. Uniswap on ETH is currently doing about $500 million daily volume. Of that, $250 million is BTC, ETH, and stables. No one is going to use a tg bot for that. But that means there is $250 million of potential volume that COULD be captured

Let's be more conservative and say that of the $250M on uniswap, only $75M would ever actually use a tg bot. Well, tg bots altogether do only $10M of daily volume right now. So there is still huge room for market growth.
That's a potential 7.5x on revenue.

3. Market-wide growth. Remember that $500 million daily volume on uniswap right now? At peak 2021, that number topped $5 billion. We are probably never going back to that insanity, but better market conditions could see daily volume at $2 billion.
That's a 4x on revenue.

Slap factors 1, 2, and 3 together, and you don't have to drink the moonboi koolaid to think that BG revenue could realistically increase by up to 75x from where it is right now over the next year.

I'm excited to see what the revenue share will look like, and here is my current estimation. Initial trade volume on the token will of course be anomalous, and so the payouts in the beginning will probably be much larger than this.