🧵Cui bono? The Hamas attack on #Israel of this magnitude required planning and external backing. Moscow’s ties to Teheran have grown exponentially since the Russian re-invasion of #Ukraine—Shoigu’s recent visit to Teheran underscored it. This attack creates a new theater. 1/5

We are in a period of protracted systemic instability where regional power balances will be critical to averting a wider war. The Hamas attack draws Washington’s attention away from #Ukraine and #Taiwan. It puts additional pressure on Western weapons and munitions supply. 2/5

The decision window is much narrower than most Western analysts believe it to be. How quickly #Russia reconstitutes its land forces and when #China decides it is ready to move against #Taiwan are the key question. The Hamas attack has ratcheted political pressure on the West.3/5

The sheer numbers of missiles that rained on Israel should make clear the mass aspect of modern war. It should make rebuilding the West’s defense industrial base our top priority. The attack is another reminder to Western leaders of how fragile the int’l system has become. 4/5

With a wider war I n MENA a possibility, we need to stop talking in normative terms about the rules-based order, and return our national security debate in Washington to the basics of geostrategy. What should our alliances look like, our force size and posture, etc. Now. 5/End