The Hama Rules
This thread explores the logic of extreme retaliation in the Middle East
The destruction of the Syrian city of Hama in 1982 provides a case to analyze the incentives in the Middle East and the current dilemma faced by Israel
This thread explores the logic of extreme retaliation in the Middle East
The destruction of the Syrian city of Hama in 1982 provides a case to analyze the incentives in the Middle East and the current dilemma faced by Israel
Since the late 1960s Syria was ruled by the president for life Hafez Assad.
The Alawites, to whom Assad belonged, is an ethnoreligious sect of Shia origins. Through tribal solidarity it managed to dominate the Syrian army and bring Assad to Power.
The Alawites, to whom Assad belonged, is an ethnoreligious sect of Shia origins. Through tribal solidarity it managed to dominate the Syrian army and bring Assad to Power.
The rule by a minority, alongside Assadโs 1970s policies of secularisation and modernization, frustrated the 70% Sunni Muslim population of Syria
The main group of resistance was the Syrian branch of Muslim Brotherhood, a coalition of fundamentalist clerics and guerrilla groups
The main group of resistance was the Syrian branch of Muslim Brotherhood, a coalition of fundamentalist clerics and guerrilla groups
The Muslim Brotherhood organised bombings and assassinations. It called for a general strike. It sent assassins that threw grenades and open fire on Assad, that he managed to escaped. It detonated a bomb in Damascus that killed 64 bystanders
The regime responded in kind by brutal repression and torture by the security forces
In 1981 Assad discovered an air force plot against the regime and tortured perpetrators linked it to Muslim Brotherhood.
That was enough for Assad
In 1981 Assad discovered an air force plot against the regime and tortured perpetrators linked it to Muslim Brotherhood.
That was enough for Assad
The stronghold of the Brotherhood was Hama, Syriaโs fourth largest city. They controlled several districts and were in an uprising against the regime.
Hafezโs forces entered the city in February 1982, but were initially repelled. It seemed the Brotherhood had the initiative
Hafezโs forces entered the city in February 1982, but were initially repelled. It seemed the Brotherhood had the initiative
At that point, Assad ordered complete destruction of the city. All telephone and telegraph links to the city were cut and the roads to the city were blocked. The army brought in tanks and assault helicopters and shelled the city with heavy artillery.
Rifaat Assad, Hafezโs brother in charge of the operation, said he did not want to see a single building undamaged
For several weeks the city was systematically destroyed. Entire neighborhoods were levelled. At the end 25,000-40,000 Syrians were killed by the Syrian army
Thomas Friedman, on whose account I base this thread, coined the term โHama Rulesโ
What explains this extreme brutality? Why Assad didnโt just repress the Muslim Brotherhood and bring it under control with proportional measures?
Hama Rules
What explains this extreme brutality? Why Assad didnโt just repress the Muslim Brotherhood and bring it under control with proportional measures?
Hama Rules
In the arid regions of Middle East the central authority has always been weak. There was no policeman in the desert to appeal to. The economy was pastoral, meaning private property was movable and stealable. People banded into clans and tribes for protection.
The survival depended on being able to sustain and project the image of strength and cohesion of your tribe
If your enemies met you alone in the desert they had to know they can't violate you or they'll face a vicious vengeance
If your enemies met you alone in the desert they had to know they can't violate you or they'll face a vicious vengeance
People have to fear that if they violate you, then you and your cousins and your tribe will bring them hell. You have to sustain this image at all costs
If someone steals your Turkey and you donโt immediately go and take it back, then next day theyโll come for your camel, then for your horse, and then your daughter.
You have to respond in an extreme way to any violation. Thatโs the Hama Rules
You have to respond in an extreme way to any violation. Thatโs the Hama Rules
Friedman brings up a story of a Lebanese businessman asking Hafez about the 7000 killed in Hama. โ7000? No,no. We killed 38,000โ. He wasnโt confessing, he was making sure the message was clear.
Soon after the siege was over Assad opened the motorway that goes through Hama to traffic to makes sure Syrians see what happened
Hafez Assad survived because he knew the Hama Rules. Saddam Hussein and Ariel Sharon knew the rules. Al-Sisi and MBS know the rules today.
Mubarak hesitated in 2010 and is gone. Bashar Assad, Hafez's son, destroyed Syria but is still there
Mubarak hesitated in 2010 and is gone. Bashar Assad, Hafez's son, destroyed Syria but is still there
Now, Israel has been attacked in a terrible and vicious way. It was a daring and public attack for the whole world to see. It was also a humiliation for Israelโs security forces. It was a challenge to their carefully built a reputation for ruthless professionalism.
Israel understands the rules of the Middle East, that is why it has survived and is thriving. Its leaders know they need to send a powerful message. They need to respond in a way that will be understood and remembered in the region. Otherwise the next attack will be worse
However, Israel also has another important audience - its allies in the West (and its own liberal Tel-Aviv elite)
The Western public opinion operates on the ideals of human rights and the Kantian perpetual peace
For this audience it has to send a message of civilized restraint
The Western public opinion operates on the ideals of human rights and the Kantian perpetual peace
For this audience it has to send a message of civilized restraint
These are two completely different moral orders and Israel needs to operate in both of them
How will Israel navigate this dilemma? How to send a message of insanity to the region and restraint to the world?
An extreme and decisive destruction of Hamas with minimal civilian damage is probably what Israel will attempt
An extreme and decisive destruction of Hamas with minimal civilian damage is probably what Israel will attempt
I recommend Thomas Friedman's "From Beirut to Jerusalem" - it aged well
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