GeoConfirmed ISR-PAL - Hospital Bombing
Based on the geolocation of new footage its highly likely that:
The missile -Al Jazeera footage- is an interceptor. (Iron Dome)
The explosion in the air is too far away to be related to the hospital explosion.
Read the thread π
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Based on the geolocation of new footage its highly likely that:
The missile -Al Jazeera footage- is an interceptor. (Iron Dome)
The explosion in the air is too far away to be related to the hospital explosion.
Read the thread π
1/X
Based on the investigations conducted by @fdov21 , @OAlexanderDK and @ArchieIrving2 regarding the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital explosion.
Starting with the three threads that this thread is largely based on.
Original footage:
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Starting with the three threads that this thread is largely based on.
Original footage:
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Good work of @ArchieIrving2 who was one of the first to challenge our initial analysis.
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And recently followed by @OAlexanderDK
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First the geolocations of footage showing the explosion of the hospital.
VID 01 - Initial footage:
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VID 01 - Initial footage:
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VID 02 - Other footage, same location:
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GeoLocation VID 01 & VID 02:
POV of the video: 31.5139938, 34.4499253
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POV of the video: 31.5139938, 34.4499253
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VID 03 - New footage:
32.020230, 34.739322
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32.020230, 34.739322
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VID 03 - GeoLocation:
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Now the footage showing another explosion BEFORE the explosion in the courtyard of the hospital, but relevant for the investigation. (VID 04 and VID 05)
VID 04 - Netiv HaAsara
31.566770, 34.537364
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VID 04 - Netiv HaAsara
31.566770, 34.537364
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VID 04 - GeoLocation:
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VID 05 - Channel 12 news:
31.4398539, 34.5732095
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31.4398539, 34.5732095
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VID 05 - Geolocation:
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The triangulation of the initial blast BEFORE the Hospital Explosion:
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Why does the geolocation from the explosion BEFORE the hospital explosion matters:
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Triangulation of the different -what was said to be-hospital explosion related footage.
Especially @fdov21 did a great job in investigating this.
I would advise you to read his thread:
tinyurl.com (Google Doc)
Some snapshots from his thread:
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Especially @fdov21 did a great job in investigating this.
I would advise you to read his thread:
tinyurl.com (Google Doc)
Some snapshots from his thread:
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His (@fdov21 ) overview:
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Triangulation regarding the interception by @fdov21:
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Triangulation regarding the interception by @OAlexanderDK:
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We are pleased to observe the open-source community and journalists actively engaged in their work. Based on the above investigation questions are answered (backed with proof) and new questions can be raised:
Ref.
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Ref.
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Answered questions:
1. Is the missile visible in the Al Jazeera stream above or near the hospital?
Highly Likely not.
2. If an Iron Dome missile is involved, why was it fired above Gaza?
Not above Gaza, but highly likely at the edge, doing a 'normal' intercept.
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1. Is the missile visible in the Al Jazeera stream above or near the hospital?
Highly Likely not.
2. If an Iron Dome missile is involved, why was it fired above Gaza?
Not above Gaza, but highly likely at the edge, doing a 'normal' intercept.
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3. If an Iron Dome missile is involved, can we identify past incidents of Iron Dome missile interceptions occurring above Gaza?
Not relevant, see 2.
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Not relevant, see 2.
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4. If an interceptor was in action, what was its target? 5. What happened to the debris of the intercepted object ?
6. No debris?
Because of the estimates of the distance between the explosion and the hospital, it seems to be exploded too far away to have relevance.
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6. No debris?
Because of the estimates of the distance between the explosion and the hospital, it seems to be exploded too far away to have relevance.
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Questions which are relevant now after this above investigation (restarted numbering):
A. If itβs a Tamir interceptor and it intercepted something above/in line of the hospital, doesnβt this support the IDFβs claim regarding rocket trajectory ?
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A. If itβs a Tamir interceptor and it intercepted something above/in line of the hospital, doesnβt this support the IDFβs claim regarding rocket trajectory ?
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A. Very relevant, although itβs now highly likely that it didnβt intercept something above the hospital, it could have intercepted something that was shot over the hospital. What means that the possibility of another rocket failing still exists.
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A.
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A.
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Open questions/topics non related to this analysis above:
B. Why is there still no footage/proof of debris that could identify what caused the explosion?
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B. Why is there still no footage/proof of debris that could identify what caused the explosion?
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B.
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B.
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C. Did an JDAM/GBU dropped by Israeli Airforce caused this?
@Bellingcat: The impacted area does not seem to match the usual characteristics of 500, 1000, or 2000-pound Joint Direct Attack Munitions (JDAMs).
bellingcat.com
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@Bellingcat: The impacted area does not seem to match the usual characteristics of 500, 1000, or 2000-pound Joint Direct Attack Munitions (JDAMs).
bellingcat.com
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D. Did Israel bombed the (area of) the hospital before?
E. Was Israel bombing the neighbourhood of the Hospital before and after the explosion?
F. Was it an artillery shell coming from the North-East.
By @ForensicArchi
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E. Was Israel bombing the neighbourhood of the Hospital before and after the explosion?
F. Was it an artillery shell coming from the North-East.
By @ForensicArchi
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G. If only one artillery shell impacted the site, why is there just one? Is this typical for artillery use?
H. Are there other recent examples of Israel using artillery in the area?
I. How can we be certain itβs artillery and not shrapnel from a rocket?
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H. Are there other recent examples of Israel using artillery in the area?
I. How can we be certain itβs artillery and not shrapnel from a rocket?
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J. Or not artillery?
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J.
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J.
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Conducting a crater analysis is an exceptionally challenging investigative task. Even with access to the impact site, it can take weeks to determine the type of ammunition and the direction of impact.
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Depending on the underground and the angle of impact, the resulting spray pattern can vary significantly, possibly even by 180 degrees. The accuracy of such an analysis comes into question when the specifics of the munition used and the angle of impact remain unknown.
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K. Why is a failed rocket launch still the most plausible possibility?
"Forensic analysis of images and videos suggests rocket caused Gaza hospital blast, not Israeli airstrike"
edition.cnn.com
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"Forensic analysis of images and videos suggests rocket caused Gaza hospital blast, not Israeli airstrike"
edition.cnn.com
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K. Justin Crump, a former British Army officer, said the failure rate of such homemade rockets is high.
Such a scenario unfolded last year, when Islamic Jihad-fired rockets malfunctioned and killed at least a dozen Gaza residents.
apnews.com
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Such a scenario unfolded last year, when Islamic Jihad-fired rockets malfunctioned and killed at least a dozen Gaza residents.
apnews.com
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L. Why is the cemetery so important?
If the conversation isnβt real, why would IDF push a cemetery narrative?
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If the conversation isnβt real, why would IDF push a cemetery narrative?
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M. IDF claims responsibility for the bombing of whole neighborhoods causing dozens of civilian casualties claiming they bombed HAMAS hide-outs, why are they now consistently trying to proof it was not them?
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N. GeoLocation of Palestinian Islamic Jihad with BADR-3 rockets:
Much more questions can be asked now.
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Much more questions can be asked now.
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Actions taken after this new information emerged:
Our old thread is deleted:
That analysis was based on info and footage at that time that did not corresponds to the communication that Israeli Airforce bombed and raised a hotel to the ground causing 500-1000 casualties.
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Our old thread is deleted:
That analysis was based on info and footage at that time that did not corresponds to the communication that Israeli Airforce bombed and raised a hotel to the ground causing 500-1000 casualties.
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With this new information that analysis is proven flawed and should not be spread nor used anymore,
regardless the fact that enough evidence has emerged that the initial communication by Palestinian authorities was highly likely wrong.
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regardless the fact that enough evidence has emerged that the initial communication by Palestinian authorities was highly likely wrong.
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Because of the virality of the first tweet (and like you know most people only read the first tweet) we decided to delete the thread, because placing an update at the end would be less read than the further spreading of the first tweet.
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Conclusion:
Based on the investigations conducted by @fdov, @OAlexanderDK and @ArchieIrving2 its highly likely:
The missile on the initial Al Jazeera footage is an interceptor.
The explosion is too far away from the hospital to be related to the hospital explosion.
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Based on the investigations conducted by @fdov, @OAlexanderDK and @ArchieIrving2 its highly likely:
The missile on the initial Al Jazeera footage is an interceptor.
The explosion is too far away from the hospital to be related to the hospital explosion.
59/X
We are pleased to observe the open-source community and journalists actively engaged in their work.
OSINT analysis is always based on information at that time. (...)
and is only as good as the quality of opposing arguments. (...)
Very good work by the OSINT community!
60/X
OSINT analysis is always based on information at that time. (...)
and is only as good as the quality of opposing arguments. (...)
Very good work by the OSINT community!
60/X
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