One lesson I was taught by a couple of people who worked at the top levels of foreign policy was that the depth of most geopolitical thinking was similar to a fruit flies wading pool. "Great idea let me explain to you the 10 different reasons it won't work." Or... 1/n
"Great idea, how do we make that into tangible explicit policy and not just a cliche or grad paper?" What's amazing is that this type of thinking is everywhere. Let's take the most common current example: a call for an Israeli ceasefire. Will Hamas stop launching rockets? 2/n
Will Hamas hand back hostages? Great, so basically then your plan is nothing more than to let Hamas continue firing rockets and demanding billions for women and children? Not sure that is much of a plan. Take the "deal" with Iran. We knew years ago Iran was cheating 3/n
On everything. We knew Iran was finding the Houthis and Hamas sitting attacks on Saudi Arabia and Israel. Deals in geopolitics are easy. Anyone can get a deal. Holding the deal is the hard part. There is a reason every American foreign policy team, GOP or Democrat, before 4/n
The Sullivan disaster refused to deal with Iran. Everyone knew this and agreed on it. Only in DC could the guy who wanted to give Taiwan to China for peace in our time get promoted. How do you actually implement the policy beyond a cliche? The problem is simple 5/n
The arm chair oped writers and failed grad school thesis projects don't work because they are the intellectual depth and rigor only accepted at an Ivy League grad school. Next time you think you have the idea, take it apart yourself and ask the things that are obviously 6/n
Wrong with it. I guarantee if you are honest with yourself you will easily find many within your own ideas. Details and logic matter in reality. They don't matter to professorial theory or journalistic narrative but reality is a demanding bitch. 7/n
You want an Israeli ceasefire? Think through the logic, the details, the implications, the tradeoffs. There is a reason it isn't reality
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