Mark Ritchie II
Mark Ritchie II

@MarkRitchie_II

7 Tweets 2 reads Nov 28, 2023
Example #1 @ETH
In 2020 @ETH was setting up a base on the daily. I marked where we were buying and basically bought 200 ETH on both days. Small position (about 100K notional) but everything was working so bought this and then de-risked (sold 1/2 near 10x initial risk)...
And free rolled the remainder with breakeven or better stop (trailing 50-day/10week). Here are the confirms for the buys & sells for the doubters/haters. I don't like how they break these up into all these micro buys but you get the idea.
Had to zoom out to catch the last sell on 4/9/21, but once we started going parabolic (I know I missed the blow off but getting the absolute highs doesn't matter) just tightened a back stop when we were up over 10x our purchase price. You do the math, great trade...
The lessons are a few fold.
1. Would rather have a small position in something explosive.
2. Look to finance a big hold with profits up front (trade to invest)
3. You don't have to catch the whole move.
4. Proper analysis and risk management is agnostic to asset class.
Now that brings us to today. Here is what ETH looks like on the weekly. Working on the right side of an 18+ month base after a pretty nasty bear market. This is starting to give that feeling of 'I've seen this before'...
Here is what it looked like in 2020 with the marks on the weekly where we were buying. Again markets don't repeat but often rhyme. I'm looking to buy a potential breakout yet again. Doubtful it will be as powerful but worth having on the radar and having a plan ready.
Just an example of how past can become healthy prologue at least for how we do things. Hope this was helpful and gives some insight into how we think/trade/invest.

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