🧵The Cause of the Mysterious Pneumonia Surging in China, South Korea, France, Netherlands, Denmark and the U.S. is Revealed
We uncover what's behind the surge in respiratory illnesses. How concerning is it?
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We uncover what's behind the surge in respiratory illnesses. How concerning is it?
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Bacterial pneumonia is often secondary to viral infections. Bacteria like that causing mycoplasma pneumonia are usually opportunistic, in that they take advantage of an immune system that has been weakened by a virus.
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So, for instance, influenza, RSV and the common cold can sometimes lead to bronchitis or pneumonia, infections of the upper and lower respiratory tract, respectively. We know that COVID can cause more damage to the immune system than the other viruses.
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There are quite a few COVID variants causing illness, hospitalization and death, but there is one that has been increasing in prevalence at the same pace as the increasing cases of what are likely secondary respiratory infections.
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It’s possible that the increasing cases of bacterial and viral respiratory infections leading to pneumonia is the cumulative toll of weakened immune systems from many COVID infections.
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Consider this. China, with fewer COVID infections per person, compared to the Netherlands, Denmark, France, or the U.S., is experiencing a simultaneous increase in pneumonia cases, that is coinciding with the prevalence of the BA.2.86 variants in all the other countries.
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Week 34 is where the pneumonia cases in the Netherlands separated from the norm, and has continued increasing from there. Week 34 is the last week of August, precisely when Ohio started seeing the increase in pneumonia and the same time BA.2.86 started increasing. 1st pic: NL
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From the ECDC on BA.2.86'S prevalence per country.
First detected and growing exponentially from week 34 in France and week 36 in the Netherlands. This is with decreased sequencing and the delay in reporting the results.
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First detected and growing exponentially from week 34 in France and week 36 in the Netherlands. This is with decreased sequencing and the delay in reporting the results.
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In France, an increase in lung infections caused by the bacterium Mycoplasma pneumoniae has been recorded in recent days.” The cases mainly concern minors under the age of 15, but it is working its way up through the age group's as shown in Netherlands data, as JN.1 expands.
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Thus far, Chinese officials say causal agents include known pathogens, such as mycoplasma, RSV, influenza and SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes Covid-19)."
In South Korea, confirmed cases of the illness more than doubled from mid October to mid November.
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In South Korea, confirmed cases of the illness more than doubled from mid October to mid November.
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Netherlands, Since week 34, there has been an upward trend in the number of patients with whooping cough in the 0 to 14 age group.
In weeks 45,46, and 47, the first 3 weeks of November, the number of children with whooping cough is increasing sharply above prior years.
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In weeks 45,46, and 47, the first 3 weeks of November, the number of children with whooping cough is increasing sharply above prior years.
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Ohio, They said that it started “roughly in August, but really picking up in mid-late October, and we’ve been noticing a lot of cases of kids being absent and the resulting diagnosis being Pneumonia" Weeks 33 and 34 are the last two weeks of August. Aligns perfectly with BA.2.86
“Danish medical institute declares ‘cold pneumonia’ epidemic” “released on Wednesday, November 29, the medical entity announced that an increasing number of Danes had tested positive for the respiratory infection Mycosplasma pneumoniae"
Denmark: BA.2.86 started on week 33
Denmark: BA.2.86 started on week 33
When science aligns closely with real-world data, the likely culprit is the multitude of new mutations in the BA.2.86 variants. The studies indicate it has an enhanced ability to attack respiratory epithelial cells, coupled with the highest immune evasion and suppression to date.
We end up with a surge in secondary lung infections. It's crucial to note that for every pneumonia case, there are likely many times greater number of infections by these variants.
The evasion and suppression of the immune system may lead to fewer initial symptoms, with secondary infections becoming the primary indicators in many cases.
This situation poses a significant risk of persistent infections, potentially leading to Long COVID and disabling conditions for millions. For those that avoid Long COVID, there is an increased odds of musculoskeletal, neurological, vascular and cognitive dysfunction.
The virus can resist the effects of the antibodies our body produces to fight it and prevent it from infecting our cells.
BA.2.86 is antigenically distinct from XBB.1.5 and can escape neutralizing antibodies induced by XBB variants.
BA.2.86 is antigenically distinct from XBB.1.5 and can escape neutralizing antibodies induced by XBB variants.
Increased risk of viral persistence. Combined with the greater immune evasion & suppression, faster entry into cells means faster replication, more time to circulate, and infiltrate into viral reservoirs throughout the body & brain before T-cells can eliminate the infected cells.
The severity of health conditions is influenced by the viral load someone is exposed to, and with insufficient upgrades to ventilation and air filtration, the risk of infection remains high.
Considering the likelihood of less noticeable initial symptoms with these variants, more people could be contagious without detectable signs.
Anticipate a significant increase in secondary infections, such as pertussis, mycoplasma pneumonia, streptococcus pneumonia, influenza, RSV and adenovirus, impacting the lungs more harshly, through immune suppression than any prior variant.
Hospitals should brace for a significant influx of patients in the coming weeks. This is impacting children now as it moves through classrooms and homes but it is working its way up through the age groups. Older adults will likely be impacted more severely in the coming weeks.
Contrary to expectations, the Pirola variant surge may not be milder than 2021/2022. It is likely to be substantially higher than the 2022/2023 surge as is already indicated by CDC wastewater data. Starting in mid-January, we should see exponential decay continuing into February.
For a more detailed analysis, and links to sources, follow the link to the substack page.
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Preventing infection is the best medicine.
We must work Together Against COVID Transmission.
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Preventing infection is the best medicine.
We must work Together Against COVID Transmission.
tactnowinfo.substack.com
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