1/ HAPPY NEW YEAR
The Messari Theses for 2024 are now available for free.
Here's 105 thoughts for the new year. 👇
The Messari Theses for 2024 are now available for free.
Here's 105 thoughts for the new year. 👇
(You can read the full 190+ page report here, by signing up for a free Messari account.)
Otherwise, some highlights...
messari.io
Otherwise, some highlights...
messari.io
2/ 24 top thoughts for 2024:
#1 When in doubt, zoom out.
Crypto is inevitable, and when you question the long-term trajectory, it's helpful to zoom out and appreciate how far we've come.
Here's crypto's 5 year performance scorecard:
#1 When in doubt, zoom out.
Crypto is inevitable, and when you question the long-term trajectory, it's helpful to zoom out and appreciate how far we've come.
Here's crypto's 5 year performance scorecard:
#2 Despite the recent run-up, BTC is the Godzilla of finance. ETF looming, institutional adoption, geopolitical tailwinds, and nowhere near overheated compared to historical cycles.
Check out market value to realized value. We're at ~1.3 today. Wait until 2.0+ to reevaluate.
Check out market value to realized value. We're at ~1.3 today. Wait until 2.0+ to reevaluate.
#3 I wrote back in late November that "ETH was straddled." Bitcoin is a better digital gold, and Solana et al on the "integrated" networks are better, faster, cheaper at execution.
That's looked smart, but ETH is due for a pop now due to mean reversion (if nothing else).
That's looked smart, but ETH is due for a pop now due to mean reversion (if nothing else).
#4 Private funding follows public token prices. 2024 will crush 2023 in terms of crypto VC activity, though growth companies will still suck wind.
Biggest beneficiaries:
+ DePIN (storage, compute, wireless)
+ Rollups & Integrated Network ecosystems
+ Anything crypto x AI
Biggest beneficiaries:
+ DePIN (storage, compute, wireless)
+ Rollups & Integrated Network ecosystems
+ Anything crypto x AI
#5 DePIN will explode in 2024.
Our full report lays out some of the most promising projects in greater detail.
Our full report lays out some of the most promising projects in greater detail.
#6 My top 10 people to watch include:
The ETF crew (Cathie Wood, Larry Fink, Sonnenshein), the Circle team (most likely IPO candidate), the policy leaders (Kristin Smith, Mike Carcaise), our arch enemy Satan (Elizabeth Warren), the RWA leaders, and the DeSoc and DeFi gangs.
The ETF crew (Cathie Wood, Larry Fink, Sonnenshein), the Circle team (most likely IPO candidate), the policy leaders (Kristin Smith, Mike Carcaise), our arch enemy Satan (Elizabeth Warren), the RWA leaders, and the DeSoc and DeFi gangs.
#7 Crypto's top 10 projects to watch:
1. USDT on Tron
2. Apps on Base
3. Celestia
4. Jupiter & Solana DeFi
5. Farcaster / Lens
6. GBTC
7. Lido & LSTs
8. CCIP vs. Pyth
9. Blur & Blast
10. Project Guardian
What are these? I guess you'll have to read the report.
1. USDT on Tron
2. Apps on Base
3. Celestia
4. Jupiter & Solana DeFi
5. Farcaster / Lens
6. GBTC
7. Lido & LSTs
8. CCIP vs. Pyth
9. Blur & Blast
10. Project Guardian
What are these? I guess you'll have to read the report.
#8 Bitcoin's security model depends on Ordinals. The network will need to be secured in the medium term by:
1. Apps that generate fees.
2. Introduction of permanent low inflation.
3. A migration to proof-of-stake.
Otherwise, Bitcoin will eventually fail (slowly).
1. Apps that generate fees.
2. Introduction of permanent low inflation.
3. A migration to proof-of-stake.
Otherwise, Bitcoin will eventually fail (slowly).
#9 The privacy projects I'm most excited about are Privacy Pools, Silent Protocol, and yes, ZCash, which is very non-consensus at this point.
We need on-chain privacy, and it's an all-out war to preserve our privacy rights on-chain.
We need on-chain privacy, and it's an all-out war to preserve our privacy rights on-chain.
#10 Concerns about Tether are kayfabe.
The U.S. government loves USDT (surveillable eurodollar) even if they pretend to hate it in private.
Ongoing hostility towards USDC will continue to hurt us until we have a new President in the White House.
The U.S. government loves USDT (surveillable eurodollar) even if they pretend to hate it in private.
Ongoing hostility towards USDC will continue to hurt us until we have a new President in the White House.
#11 There's no future in the U.S. for crypto if Democrats hold both the Senate and White House.
We need to take out Sherrod Brown, Jon Tester, Katie Porter and a couple of other hostile Senate candidates, or you should move offshore of pick another industry.
Sorry:
We need to take out Sherrod Brown, Jon Tester, Katie Porter and a couple of other hostile Senate candidates, or you should move offshore of pick another industry.
Sorry:
#12 Almost everything our political opponents say about us is a lie.
Illicit crypto usage is near all-time lows as a % of volumes and market caps, and half of our "illicit finance" is due to sanctions that half of the world (India + China + others) doesn't even recognize.
Illicit crypto usage is near all-time lows as a % of volumes and market caps, and half of our "illicit finance" is due to sanctions that half of the world (India + China + others) doesn't even recognize.
#13 Coinbase is a juggernaut, and will continue to be.
Otherworldly performance from the team on all fronts which could accelerate now that winds are at our backs. I expect them to grow via M&A in 2024 as well.
They make money from deposits, volumes, and on-chain activity now.
Otherworldly performance from the team on all fronts which could accelerate now that winds are at our backs. I expect them to grow via M&A in 2024 as well.
They make money from deposits, volumes, and on-chain activity now.
#14 You aren't bullish enough on the bitcoin ETF.
+ Wall Street is now into crypto.
+ They must all compete heavily with marketing dollars.
+ Gateway drug for ETH, and then everything else.
But it's a tsunami (earthquake, mini correction, then relentless wall of money).
+ Wall Street is now into crypto.
+ They must all compete heavily with marketing dollars.
+ Gateway drug for ETH, and then everything else.
But it's a tsunami (earthquake, mini correction, then relentless wall of money).
#15 DCG and Gemini et al settle up with each other, their customers, the SEC, and the NYAG.
+ Minimal civil penalties.
+ Most creditors made whole in dollars, but not crypto.
+ No jail time for anyone involved.
Sorry if you disagree, but the indictments are over.
Up only.
+ Minimal civil penalties.
+ Most creditors made whole in dollars, but not crypto.
+ No jail time for anyone involved.
Sorry if you disagree, but the indictments are over.
Up only.
#16 We cover dozens of L0/L1/L2 networks via quarterly reporting. There's too much ground to cover here.
BUT, the "fat protocol" thesis is alive and well and will be in 2024, even if it is still somewhat nonsensical in the long-term. Don't fight the trend or the meme.
BUT, the "fat protocol" thesis is alive and well and will be in 2024, even if it is still somewhat nonsensical in the long-term. Don't fight the trend or the meme.
#17 Ethereum remains all-in on its rollup centric view of the future, and much of the economic value in this year's rally will go to those rollup chains' tokens vs. ETH.
The spread trade is almost too easy.
The spread trade is almost too easy.
#18 Solana was the industry's comeback player of the year, and it still has room to rally against ETH as the top integrated network.
If bitcoin is Godzilla, then Solana is Pacman, eating all of the killer crypto apps one pellet at a time.
If bitcoin is Godzilla, then Solana is Pacman, eating all of the killer crypto apps one pellet at a time.
#19 Crypto payments are booming on Ethereum, Tron, and Solana. Just not on Bitcoin's Lightning.
Solana will continue to gain share, Tron will ride or die with Tether, Ethereum will depend on its rollups to settle payments. And Lightning will sit in the corner.
Solana will continue to gain share, Tron will ride or die with Tether, Ethereum will depend on its rollups to settle payments. And Lightning will sit in the corner.
#20 Spot DEX volumes are ~15-20% of spot CEX volumes now, but Perp DEX volumes are an order of magnitude lower market share.
That gap will close in 2024 considerably.
Here are the potential breakout performers in DeFi.
That gap will close in 2024 considerably.
Here are the potential breakout performers in DeFi.
#21 Bridges will continue to be the bane of our existence. Most illicit crypto these days comes from on-chain hacks and poor security.
The culprits operate with varying levels of sophistication, but insecure bridges are and will continue to be the major source of attacks.
The culprits operate with varying levels of sophistication, but insecure bridges are and will continue to be the major source of attacks.
#22 Elon bought us time, but we need a parallel social media ecosystem. The leaders in the clubhouse are Lens, Farcaster, and yes, friend dot tech. 10x years for all three incoming in 2024.
These protocols are real businesses, too. There's a lot of money at stake here.
These protocols are real businesses, too. There's a lot of money at stake here.
#23 Prediction markets may 50x this year with the U.S. presidential election, but the most sustainably high crypto betting opportunities are in gaming. Crypto is excellent in gray markets and regulatory ambiguity, and there's a huge appetite for betting on games globally.
#24 The wallet war is the most interesting, highest stakes, and least talked about war in crypto.
The resulting arms race will level up crypto from a speculative asset to a safer, easier, mainstream consumer tech in 2024.
The resulting arms race will level up crypto from a speculative asset to a safer, easier, mainstream consumer tech in 2024.
Share your favorite ideas from the theses, and tag me, and I'll RT them all. :)
Happy New Year, and Enjoy!
x.com
Happy New Year, and Enjoy!
x.com
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