Subtle Insights
Subtle Insights

@Antardrshti

8 Tweets 7 reads Jan 24, 2024
West + Central India Total Projections (132/543)
BJP 114 (+2)
Shiv Sena 5 (-13)
NCP (A) 7 (+3)
NDA Total  126 (-4)
Congress 6 (+1)
Shiv Sena (U) 6 (+6)
NCP (S) 1 (+1) VBA 2 (+2)
Other Allies 1 (+1)
INDIA 16 (+6)
Others 1 (-2)
Delhi 2024
Scenario 1 (No AAP-Congress alliance)
Vote share projections
BJP 61% (+4%)
Congress 22% (-1%)
AAP 13 % (-5%)
Others 4% (+2%)
Seat forecast
BJP 7 (0)
Congress 0 (0)
AAP (0)
Scenario 2 (AAP-Congress alliance)
Vote share projections
BJP 64% (+7%)
Congress 19% (-4%)
AAP 15 % (-3%)
Others 2% (0%)
Seat forecast
BJP 7 (0)
Congress 0 (0)
AAP (0)
Alliance Distribution
INDIA - 4 Congress | 3 AAP
Seat projections
Firewall seats - 7
Toss up seats* - 0
Aspirational Seats - 0
No go - 0
* - Chandni Chowk may become a toss up seat if the candidate is not changed as the said candidate is highly unpopular. However due to the sheer might and wave that has developed in favour of BJP, even a bad candidate on BJP may sail through in Delhi.
Signals - NCR Delhi is usually bell weather and reflects the National Mood.
1. Strong polarization and split voting with more than 2/3rds of even AAP supporters shifting to BJP for Lok Sabha.
2. AAP may be able to save deposits on one of the 3 seats if it allies with Congress, else it would remain #3 player in 6 of the 7 seats.
3. An alliance of AAP-Congress is quite pointless as the BJP still looks to gain more than 60% than vote share in either of the scenarios and win with gigantic margins in all but 1 seat and with a comfortable margin in the Lone Chandni Chowk seat. The only beneficiary of this INDIA alliance would be AAP as it helps them save deposits in 1 seat, which they would have not saved if they went alone.
4. Heavy local level anti incumbency against AAP leaders.
5. AAP Kejriwal Anti corruption image has been dented beyond repair however the party is still ahead in Assembly elections due to the split voting phenomenon.
Haryana 2024
Vote share projections
BJP 49% (-9%)
JJP 7% (+2%)
NDA 56%
Congress 31% (+3%)
INLD 4% (+2%)
INDIA 35%
Others 9% (+2%)
Seat forecast
BJP 8 (-2)
JJP 1 (+1)
Congress 1 (+1)
Alliance Distribution:
NDA - BJP 9, JJP 1
Seat projections
Firewall seats - 7
Toss up seats - 3
Aspirational Seats - 0
No go - 0
Signals:
1. There is a terrible level of anti incumbency against the state BJP government, however this being a National elections, the National sentiments would once again prevail over local factors
2. BJP - JJP are in alliance in Haryana so it is expected that BJP may leave 1 seat for its ally JJP who would win that seat.
3. Due to strong National wave, BJP would win 2 of the 3 toss up seats and lose the 3rd one i.e. Rohtak because the local MP is extremely unpopular and the social equations have changed particularly in the light of farmers protests and Wrestlers agitation which is a matter of 'izzat' aka pride or respect for 1 community.
Punjab 2024 
Vote share projections
BJP 25% (+18%)
SAD 16% (-12%)
Congress 22% (-18%)
AAP 31% (+24%)
INDIA 53%
Others 6% (-10%)
Seat forecast
BJP 4 (+2)
AAP 6 (+5)
Congress 2 (-6)
SAD 1 (-1)
INDIA 8
Seat projections 
Firewall seats - 1 (Gurdaspur) 
Toss up seats - 5 (Hoshiarpur, Ferozepur, Ludhiana, Jalandhar, Patiala)
Aspirational Seats - 2 (Amritsar, Anandpur)
No go - 5 
Signals:
1. Huge Anti Incumbency levels against AAP
2. INDIA alliance did not materialize 
3. BJP - SAD alliance did not occur which will help BJP
4. Churn of Congress votes to BJP in seats like Jalandhar, Ferozepur, Ludhiana
5. Jalandhar bypoll 2023 - BJP came #2 after AAP. BJP won 2 out of 9 segments in the Jalandhar Lok Sabha bypoll while AAP won 7. This happened at the peak of AAP honeymoon period, popularity and BJP at its lowest worst.
All of this point to BJP being accepted as a legitimate option in the upcoming elections
Rest of North India 2024
Uttarakhand
BJP 5 (0) - 64% (+3%%)
Congress 0 (0) - 28% (-3%)
Jammu & Kashmir
BJP 2 (0) - 40% (-6%)
Congress 0 (0) - 31% (+3%)
JKNC 3 (0) - 8% (0%)
Himachal Pradesh
BJP 4 (0) - 70% (+1%)
Congress 0 (0) - 28% (+1%)
Note: If Congress fields Vikramaditya Singh from Mandi seat as per rumours, then BJP vote share will fall to 64% while Congress goes up to 34% with no change in seats
Chandigarh
BJP 1 (0) - 52% (+1%)
Congress 0 (0) - 43% (+3%)
Ladakh
BJP 1 (0) - 34% (-1%)
Congress 0 (0) - 22% (+6%)
Total
BJP 13 (0)
Congress 0 (0)
Others 3 (0)
Uttar Pradesh 2024
Vote share projections
BJP 55% (+6%)
Apna Dal 2% (+1%)
Sohail Dev SP 1% (+1%)
Nishad Party 1% (+1%)
NDA 59%
SP 22% (+4%)
Congress 3% (-5%)
RLD 3% (+1%)
INDIA 28%
BSP 10% (-9%)
Others 3% (0%)
Seat forecast
BJP 70 (+8)
Apna Dal 2 (0)
Sohail Dev BSP 1 (+1)
Nishad Party 1 (+1)
NDA 74 (+10)
Congress 0 (-1)
SP 5 (0)
RLD 1 (+1)
INDIA 6 (0)
BSP 0 (-10)
Alliance Distribution
NDA - 76 BJP | 2 Apna Dal | 1 NCP (A)
INDIA - 10 Congress | 7 RLD | 63 SP (including Sonelal AD)
Seat projections
Firewall seats - 64
Toss up seats - 16
Aspirational Seats - 0
No go - 0
Signals - No Signal needed.
This is Akshat Wave followed by Mahaprasad Wave all the way.
Even all the 80 seats are possible.
Modi + Yogi blessed by Ram are unbeatable for any earthly power
North India Total
BJP 102 (+8)
Apna Dal 2 (0)
NISHAD Party 1 (+1)
Sohail Dev BSP 1 (+1)
JJP 1 (+1)
NDA Total  107 (+11)
Congress 3 (-5)
AAP 6 (+5)
SP 5 (0)
RLD 1 (+1)
JKNC 3 (0)
INDIA 18 (+1)
Others
SAD 1 (-1)
BSP 0 (-10)
Final Tally for January 2024
BJP 331 (+28)
NCP (A) 7 (+3)
LJP RV 6 (+5)
Shiv Sena 5 (-13)
JDS 3 (+2)
RLJD 2 (+2)
JSP 2 (+2)
Apna Dal 2 (0)
RLJP 1 (-5)
HAMS 1 (+1)
AJSU 1 (0)
NPP 1 (0)
NDPP 1 (0)
ZPM 1 (+1)
NMK 1 (+1)
AMMK 1 (+1)
AINRC 1 (0)
NISHAD Party 1 (+1)
Sohail Dev BSP 1 (+1)
JJP 1 (+1)
NDA 370
Congress 46
TMC 22 (0)
DMK 22 (-2)
RJD 7 (+7)
Shiv Sena (U) 6 (+6)
AAP 6 (+5)
JKNC 3 (0)
SP 5 (0)
VBA 2 (+2)
JMM 1 (0)
AIUDF 1 (0)
RLD 1 (+1)
NCP (S) 1 (+1)
SSP 1 (+1)
Other Allies 11 (-3)
INDIA 135
YSRCP 16 (-6)
BJD 9 (-3)
TDP 7 (+4)
MIM 2 (0)
ADMK 1 (0)
PMK 1 (+1)
BRS 1 (-8)
SAD 1 (-1)
Others 38

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