3 pillars to China's South East Asia (ASEAN countries) strategy:
1️⃣Infrastructure.
2️⃣Economic & Financial & Industry.
3️⃣Security.
A comprehensive thread on how South East Asia is turning into China's backyard.
And the wider geopolitical implications.
1/12🧵
1️⃣Infrastructure.
2️⃣Economic & Financial & Industry.
3️⃣Security.
A comprehensive thread on how South East Asia is turning into China's backyard.
And the wider geopolitical implications.
1/12🧵
1️⃣Infrastructure
China is already dominating ASEAN, the central route from China's Yunnan through Laos to Thailand is half way there.
The more important and profitable one going from China's Guangxi province through Vietnam, Cambodia and Thailand is in the planning stage.
China is already dominating ASEAN, the central route from China's Yunnan through Laos to Thailand is half way there.
The more important and profitable one going from China's Guangxi province through Vietnam, Cambodia and Thailand is in the planning stage.
Vietnam, who used to be a skeptic is now onboard with the Eastern rail link.
The most important messaging is that Vietnam will adopt the Standard Gauge rail, the same gauge as China.
The most important messaging is that Vietnam will adopt the Standard Gauge rail, the same gauge as China.
By connecting the Mainland Southeast Asia with a rail network, goods and people can move through the existing Free Trade Zone more easily.
This not only opens up a huge market, but also allows Chinese industries to tap into the young/ affordable labor.
This not only opens up a huge market, but also allows Chinese industries to tap into the young/ affordable labor.
2️⃣ Industry-economics-finance
Unlike lies from Western media, China and ASEAN have a symbiotic relationship.
The low-end manufacturing moved to ASEAN countries, creates more wealth.
People of ASEAN can then afford more expensive Chinese industrial products, such as cars.
Unlike lies from Western media, China and ASEAN have a symbiotic relationship.
The low-end manufacturing moved to ASEAN countries, creates more wealth.
People of ASEAN can then afford more expensive Chinese industrial products, such as cars.
Thailand's auto market is a bellwether for the rest of South East Asia.
In the 2023 Bangkok auto show, Chinese brands dominated in bookings and orders.
Japanese brands had a 76% market share in ASEAN, Chinese brands with better EV technology, will take a huge chunk of that share
In the 2023 Bangkok auto show, Chinese brands dominated in bookings and orders.
Japanese brands had a 76% market share in ASEAN, Chinese brands with better EV technology, will take a huge chunk of that share
Cars is of course just one product among many.
Chinese brands is starting to dominate South East Asia in every industry.
Chinese brands is starting to dominate South East Asia in every industry.
On the financial front, China and Singapore made some big moves in the past few months.
The main one is, upgrading the China-Singapore Free Trade Agreement.
This is the first FTA signed by China that has a "negative list", which means anything not on the list is unimpeded
The main one is, upgrading the China-Singapore Free Trade Agreement.
This is the first FTA signed by China that has a "negative list", which means anything not on the list is unimpeded
With China and Singapore singing a mutual visa free agreement, the City state of Singapore will become the investment hub for Chinese capital into ASEAN countries.
3️⃣Security
The 2023 Aman Youyi military exercise brings 5 ASEAN countries together with China, there are more works to be done, but it's a start.
The main pillar in a new security arrangement would be in weapon sales, China is already a major arms supplier for the region.
The 2023 Aman Youyi military exercise brings 5 ASEAN countries together with China, there are more works to be done, but it's a start.
The main pillar in a new security arrangement would be in weapon sales, China is already a major arms supplier for the region.
Chinese industry and capital will tap into the 600 million+ market and labor pool of South East Asia.
This will be vital for China, as we transition from a low-end manufacturing to a high-end manufacturing + consumption based economy.
This will be vital for China, as we transition from a low-end manufacturing to a high-end manufacturing + consumption based economy.
Further afield, ASEAN will act as a transit hub for Chinese exports to countries who are sensitive ties with China.
As China intertwines with ASEAN economy and supply chain, it will be impossible to sanction China, be it reasons based on lies or in an event of war over Taiwan.
As China intertwines with ASEAN economy and supply chain, it will be impossible to sanction China, be it reasons based on lies or in an event of war over Taiwan.
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