Watch out Germany --
In dollar terms, China's auto exports continue to soar
and imports are also sliding (which matters for Germany)
1/
In dollar terms, China's auto exports continue to soar
and imports are also sliding (which matters for Germany)
1/
the pace of the swing in China's auto trade is stunning -- in the middle of 2021 (3 years ago) China could accurately be described as primarily an importer of finished cars
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2/
Germany had a real business making luxury sedans for the Chinese market from 2008 on --
But its exports to China (measured using China's import data) are now sliding sharply
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But its exports to China (measured using China's import data) are now sliding sharply
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Germany also faces increased competition in third party markets (and German workers face the threat that German firms will use China as their global EV production base).
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4/
Because Germany had done better than the rest of the G-7 selling to China, it is now more exposed --
in fact, it is converging with the rest of Europe
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in fact, it is converging with the rest of Europe
5/
One trade fact I wish was more broadly known -- judged relative to China's GDP, no one has done well selling manufactures to the Chinese end market. China's imports from the EU and US (as a share of China's GDP) peaked back in .... 2004
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6/
Germany's economy actually now relies much more on US than Chinese demand -- something that could well become a big issue should Donald Trump win the U.S. election.
7/7
7/7
p.s. this ends my Saturday am chart dump
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