🚢Shipping Prices Soar📈: Is Another Supply Chain Crisis Looming? 🧵
1️⃣As of 5/31, the SCFI has surged past 3044, marking a new high since August 2022, with a YTD increase of 204.5%.

2️⃣From the supply side, the Red Sea crisis has led to a reduction of over 60% in the number of vessels passing through the #SuezCanal compared to October 2023. Vessels have been forced to reroute around the #CapeofGoodHope, resulting in a 50 to 70% increase in transit through the Cape. At the same time, the drought since 2023 has also caused transit through the #PanamaCanal to not yet fully recover. #MM

3️⃣On the demand side, the latest April MacroMicro Manufacturing Index has turned positive for the first time in 25 months, indicating an impending surge in demand as the market enters the Q3 peak season for stocking. Coupled with manufacturers' expectations of generally longer shipping times this year, this may also support demand for container shipping. #MM

4️⃣Our View: According to the New York Fed Global Supply Chain Pressure Index, the current shipping situation remains healthy, markedly different from the labor shortages, container shortages, and port congestion seen during the pandemic. There is no immediate need to worry about another #inflation crisis. #MM

5️⃣We advise users to keep track of shipping fundamentals by bookmarking MacroMicro's shipping charts for timely updates. #MM 👇👇👇macromicro.pse.is