🧵I’ve read comparisons of our current security predicament to what happened in the late 1930s. There are indeed compelling similarities: Much like before WWII when Germany and Japan positioned themselves to attack, we have two powers, Russia and China, gearing up for war.1/8
Also, much like before WWII most of Europe is daydreaming that a “deal” with #Russia is possible, while the US is not ready for war and turning isolationist. But those comparisons are misleading. I submit that we are already in an early stage of a system-transforming war. 2/8
I’m tired of monikers such as “great power competition,” “strategic competition.”or “hybrid war” for IMO these are used to avoid the harsh reality of what’s happening. Talking this way allows political leaders across the West to avoid facing the harsh reality of where we are.3/8
The principal task facing Western leaders as we confront the Axis od Dictatorships (#Russia, #China, #Iran and #NorthKorea) is to transition our democracies from the 30+ yrs of marginal or zero risk to this new int’l security environment where risk is now the new status quo.5/8
To do this, we need to stop recycling those normative phrases and cliches about “defending the rules-based international order,” and recognize that the post-Cold War order is dead. The sooner we recognize this, the sooner we transition to the hard reality of old geopolitics. 6/8
The first step is to re-learn that when it comes to military power there is no capability without capacity. No country can expect to prevail in war without a defense industrial and manufacturing base that will allow it to produce weapons and munitions at speed and scale. 7/8
We need to double our defense spending, re-shore our manufacturing and most of all decouple our supply chains from #China. We must bring national security priorities back to our economic policy. For this to happen we need political leadership. Absent that we track for failure8/8
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