Most Africans are unclear what’s happening in the Sahel, particularly in Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger. The most common feeling is that an anti-imperialist revolution is brewing in the region. Is this true though?
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For a quick background, in 2021, Mali had a military coup d'état. The same happened in Burkina Faso in 2022, then in Niger in 2023. All three coups resulted from similar conditions, for which we must go back two decades to get to where the story begins.
Between 1992 and 2002, Algeria had a civil war. At the end of the war, the resistance movement called the Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat (GSPC), fled into the Sahara desert and the vast, sparsely populated Sahel regions of Mali and Niger along Algeria’s southern border.
In 2002, Osama bin Laden's Al-Qaeda sent emissaries to visit the GSPC. Some leaders maintained the goal of the GSPC was an Islamic state in Algeria. Others saw benefits in expanding from a domestic to a larger struggle in defense of Islam and felt jihad was a global endeavour.
On 11 September 2006, the GSPC announced it had merged with Al-Qaeda (exactly five years after the NYC Twin Towers collapsed). In Jan 2007, the group proclaimed it would now be known as Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and would focus on global jihad.
AQIM announced intentions to overthrow the governments of Algeria, Libya, Mali, Mauritania, Morocco, Libya and Tunisia. However, an Algerian military campaign pushed AQIM out of the country and south and deeper into Mali and Niger.
AQIM kidnappings, raids, assassinations, and suicide bombings in the Sahel were the main reason the Dakar Rally was cancelled and permanently relocated. However, the group’s activities were relatively limited in scope until the 2011 “Arab Spring” and the NATO bombing of Libya.
After NATO destroyed Libya, AQIM established cells in the country amidst the ongoing civil war with gangs mushrooming to establish a kidnapping operation with open-air slave markets trading in Africans captured trying to cross into Europe through Libya.
Some African men have joined AQIM. An AQIM commander said he wanted to “attract Black African recruits because they would agree more readily than Arabs to becoming suicide bombers and because poor economic and social conditions made them ripe for recruitment.”
This is where Mali comes in. In 2012, AQIM helped the semi-nomadic Tuareg people—a historically disenfranchised ethnic minority—launch a rebellion against Mali’s government and take control of the country’s sparsely populated North.
As a result of the Tuareg uprising, Malian soldiers revolted and overthrew the president over his perceived poor handling of the rebellion. Meanwhile, AQIM started marginalising the Tuareg forces they had fought alongside, took their lands and subjected them to harsh laws.
Furthermore, following the coup, AQIM and other groups overran the Tuareg rebel fighters and captured half of Mali with the intent to overthrow the government. The Malian government then requested military assistance from its former colonial masters, France.
Now, let’s rewind to 2002. At the time Islamic rebels were fleeing defeat in Algeria, an entirely unrelated Islamic organisation called Group of the People of Sunnah for Dawa and Jihad, nicknamed “Boko Haram”, was created in Nigeria. This was a relatively peaceful group.
In 2009, the Nigerian government launched an investigation into Boko Haram’s activities following reports that its members were arming themselves. The “investigation” was a crackdown which left 1000 fighters and government soldiers dead, including Boko Haram’s founder.
The Boko Haram founder, Mohammed Yusuf, admired al-Qaeda and previously sent dozens of his followers to Algeria to train with AQIM to “gain the strength to succeed” in jihad. After his death, many of his followers left to train with AQIM in the Sahel to avenge him.
In 2010, Boko Haram returned and broke its members out of a Nigerian prison. Under its new leader, Abu al-Shekau, the group went from preaching ideological jihad with sporadic attacks to a coordinated organisation carrying out frequent devastating attacks in Nigeria and abroad.
In 2015, the terror attacks spread to Burkina Faso, beginning with a Boko Haram attack on the capital, Ouagadougou, followed by more attacks by AQIM. Since then, attacks have led to the displacement of over 3 million Burkinabe and at least 30 000 deaths.
Also in 2015, Boko Haram pledged allegiance to the “Islamic State” (or CIA and MOSSAD) and rebranded as the Islamic State in the West African Province. Niger, which was relatively peaceful and stable, would face similar guerilla hit-and-run attacks as Mali and Burkina Faso.
It’s crucial to note that the coups in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger were a result of discontent with the rise in insecurity. All three countries experienced consecutive coups since 2021 because members of the military were unhappy with their government’s handling of terrorism.
All three countries had a significant number of French soldiers stationed there. However, as the Islamist attacks kept happening, people began to become more anti-French. They started blaming the French for their failure to put a stop to the violence.
Burkina Faso is currently ranked 1 on the Global Terrorism Index. Deaths in the Sahel constituted 47% of the global total of terrorism deaths in 2023, compared to just 1% in 2007. Since 2009, the number of deaths due to terrorism in the Sahel has increased by 2,860%.
Still, the most significant threat facing the three leaders is not terrorism but being overthrown. The current Malian leader, Assimi Goïta, is a former vice president who held that position after helping to carry out a coup in Sep 2020. 9 months later, he overthrew his president.
In Burkina Faso, Captain Ibrahim Traore came to power after overthrowing the military government that had assumed power nine months earlier, also in a coup. Last year, he was on the brink of being overthrown when an attempted coup was foiled at the last minute.
In Niger, General Abdourahamane Tchiani was dissatisfied with how his government was dealing with terrorism and as a result, his president, Mohamed Bazoum was alleged to be planning to fire him. So Tchiani overthrew the government and announced he was Niger’s new leader.
Amid all the internal and external insecurities, these military leaders have to contend with demands from their citizens and expectations from the rest of the continent, and the various economic sanctions against them all make their situation even more tenuous.
Mali’s Goïta seized power promising to do better in the fight against terrorism. So once in power, he invited Russia’s private military contractor, the Wagner Group, forced out French troops and pushed for UN peacekeepers to leave.
For many on the continent, Mali’s expulsion of French troops was a sign of the start of the long-awaited revolution against imperial forces. However, the truth is much simpler: Goïta rightfully did not trust these entities, believing they’d help overthrow him.
Meanwhile, Burkina Faso and Captain Traore also grew close to Russia and expelled French forces. Furthermore, following the 2023 coup attempt, Russian President Vladimir Putin sent dozens of military and paramilitary personnel to Burkina Faso.
In Niger, the previous government prohibited anti-French demonstrations; however, the protests intensified in mid-2022 following the government’s decision to allow the redeployment of French troops to Niger after they left Mali. The new Nigerien admin also kicked the French out.
Niger was the most peaceful and stable country in the Sahel until the United States did what it had done in Syria—created, funded and armed artificial “Islamic insurgents”—to manufacture an excuse to occupy the country in the name of fighting terrorism.
The Nigerien government ordered the US to leave the country, and in May, Russian military personnel entered the air base hosting US troops. This is in tandem with BRICS member Iran rumoured to be seeking Nigerien uranium. Niger has one of the world’s highest-grade uranium ores.
According to the Council on Foreign Relations, the mouthpiece of the US deep state, AQIM has not attacked Europe or the US, and the UN Security Council says European cells are a source of the group’s funding. In short, terrorists raise money in Europe but don’t attack Europe.
Western-sponsored terrorism is the reason why after French-controlled ECOWAS threatened to invade Niger for kicking the French out, the triumvirate signed a treaty promising to support each other militarily and to defend each other from being overthrown.
It should be clear that the primary concern for these military leaders is to avoid being overthrown. However, US terrorism and coup fears aside, the citizens are also demanding and expecting them to reduce French influence and control over their politics, resources and territory.
This is why they created the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), which aims not only to allow the three nations to fight terrorism but also to build a new economic alliance, as they see ECOWAS as an instrument of colonial powers. For now, are things improving?
It is very difficult to know exactly what is happening in the Sahel because journalists cannot report from the ground. Western journalists are not welcome, while local journalists are allegedly censored, attacked or sent death threats. france24.com
According to Virginie Baudais, a Senior Researcher and Director of the SIPRI Sahel and West Africa Programme, the security situation in Burkina Faso is dire, whereas in Mali, some believe that conditions are not getting better.
All three leaders rely on sovereignty for leverage and to legitimise their rule. But they’ve got a tough road ahead. Ultimately, sovereignty alone won’t put food on the table. If the economic and security struggles keep getting worse, there will be problems.
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