COMPLETE BITCOIN UPDATE
Covering:
- Charts
- Volume
- Liquidations
- Orderflow
NO BULLSHIT, let's dive inπ§΅
Covering:
- Charts
- Volume
- Liquidations
- Orderflow
NO BULLSHIT, let's dive inπ§΅
Daily:
Not going to bullshit you, we are big resistance.
- Quarterly VWAP band + Daily Supply Zone
- If we don't flip this level as support, expecting VWAP retest towards $60-61k
Not going to bullshit you, we are big resistance.
- Quarterly VWAP band + Daily Supply Zone
- If we don't flip this level as support, expecting VWAP retest towards $60-61k
4H chart:
- At range high + VaH of the last swing down ending on August 5th low
- Not asking anyone to be bearish here, just be cautious
- If we roll over now and retest $61-61.5k, I will be gladly longing the retest
- If we sweep the equal highs into supply, then would likely be a perfect short rather than low confidence moves now
- At range high + VaH of the last swing down ending on August 5th low
- Not asking anyone to be bearish here, just be cautious
- If we roll over now and retest $61-61.5k, I will be gladly longing the retest
- If we sweep the equal highs into supply, then would likely be a perfect short rather than low confidence moves now
Hourly:
- Holding hourly heuristic band for now
- The curling down of the band + repeated retests of $63k will decide the HTF direction right now
- If we move up, it has to be from here, hence why I am holding partials on my alt longs on $FTM $SAGA $ZRO for the time being (with trailing stop losses in profit)
- Holding hourly heuristic band for now
- The curling down of the band + repeated retests of $63k will decide the HTF direction right now
- If we move up, it has to be from here, hence why I am holding partials on my alt longs on $FTM $SAGA $ZRO for the time being (with trailing stop losses in profit)
Liquidations:
Throughout the range, tops are usually much harder to track
We always just run out of fuel, no massive short liquidations at any highs despite a couple of spike above $70k in late May and near $65k in August
It's usually consistent pain as the actual spot bid dries up and leveraged longers continue to try and bid the entire way down until climax
Throughout the range, tops are usually much harder to track
We always just run out of fuel, no massive short liquidations at any highs despite a couple of spike above $70k in late May and near $65k in August
It's usually consistent pain as the actual spot bid dries up and leveraged longers continue to try and bid the entire way down until climax
What I did well and what I did wrong:
- Turned bearish near $61k. I have taken 27 shorts and 8 longs since then with a 64% win rate. I have still made money but left a lot of money on the table, i.e. opportunity cost
- Got attached to price targets: my macro thesis is that this remains a sell-the-news event until we sustain above $62.5k on a consistent basis or just break past 65 and hold the retest
- OI is not representative of how much leverage is in the market but funding rates have now gone positive again. This is reason for caution until proven otherwise, price 4% from August highs, while OI up 3% on $BTC globally
- A pullback here is healthy for the bulls, reaction at $61k or so remains crucial. A sweep first before lower is the most bearish case scenario IMO
I have still hedged longs and scaled into shorts here, bear case and sell-the-news scenario to be shared soon if there is enough interest
- Turned bearish near $61k. I have taken 27 shorts and 8 longs since then with a 64% win rate. I have still made money but left a lot of money on the table, i.e. opportunity cost
- Got attached to price targets: my macro thesis is that this remains a sell-the-news event until we sustain above $62.5k on a consistent basis or just break past 65 and hold the retest
- OI is not representative of how much leverage is in the market but funding rates have now gone positive again. This is reason for caution until proven otherwise, price 4% from August highs, while OI up 3% on $BTC globally
- A pullback here is healthy for the bulls, reaction at $61k or so remains crucial. A sweep first before lower is the most bearish case scenario IMO
I have still hedged longs and scaled into shorts here, bear case and sell-the-news scenario to be shared soon if there is enough interest
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