Politics International Relations Middle Eastern Affairs
Mahalaxmi Ramanathan
Mahalaxmi Ramanathan

@MahalaxmiRaman

7 Tweets Nov 30, 2024
Twitter
Offensive against #Aleppo initiated by #Turkish-allied #Islamists from #HayatTahirAlSham (re-branded #AlQaeda that has made common cause with #ISIS) & #US-allied #SyrianNationalArmy is the consequence of a strategic plan between #Israelis & #Turks, backed by the #US, ....... x.com
Offensive against #Aleppo initiated by #Turkish-allied #Islamists from #HayatTahirAlSham (re-branded...
2⃣to cut off the supply route from #Iran to #Lebanon for #Hezbollah, and threaten to destabilize/topple the #Assad government, forcing #Russia to divert resources from #Ukraine to salvage their position in #Syria.
3⃣#Ukraine has provided advisors to the anti-#Assad Militants on Drone Warfare. #Syria had largely demobilized, and #Hezbollah had mostly returned to #Lebanon. #Iranian-backed #Iraqi Militias are ill prepared to contain this assault.
4⃣It is highly likely #Aleppo will fall to the pro-#Turkish #Islamist forces. There will most likely be a concerted effort, led by #Russia & #Iran, to salvage the situation in #Syria.This will take time.
This offensive could not have been carried out ...
5⃣without close cooperation and coordination with #Israel & the #US.
This offensive may threaten the ceasefire in #Lebanon.
The biggest loser in all of this is #Turkey and its President, Recep #Erdogan.
6⃣#Syria and its Allies will destroy the #Islamist stronghold in #Idlib.
This will take years.
The #Iran-#Hezbollah supply line will be restored/maintained.
#Israel will be defeated.
7⃣And the #US will withdraw from #Syria, probably in mid-2025.
And #Turkey will continue to betray everyone it does business with, because #Erdogan stands only for #Turkey.

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Politics International Relations Middle Eastern Affairs

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